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This book focuses on applications of social network analysis in predictive policing. Data science is used to identify potential criminal activity by analyzing the relationships between offenders to fully understand criminal collaboration patterns. Co-offending networks—networks of offenders who have committed crimes together—have long been recognized by law enforcement and intelligence agencies as a major factor in the design of crime prevention and intervention strategies. Despite the importance of co-offending network analysis for public safety, computational methods for analyzing large-scale criminal networks are rather premature. This book extensively and systematically studies co-offending network analysis as effective tool for predictive policing. The formal representation of criminological concepts presented here allow computer scientists to think about algorithmic and computational solutions to problems long discussed in the criminology literature. For each of the studied problems, we start with well-founded concepts and theories in criminology, then propose a computational method and finally provide a thorough experimental evaluation, along with a discussion of the results. In this way, the reader will be able to study the complete process of solving real-world multidisciplinary problems.
Can behaviour on social media predict future purchase patterns? Can what we click on social media foresee which political party will we vote for? Can the information we share on our wall foretell the next series I might want to watch? Can the likes on Instagram and Facebook predict the time one will spend on digital platforms in the next hour? The answer is no longer science fiction. It points to the ability of mainstream social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to be able to deliver specialised advertising services to highly targeted audience segments controlled by the billions of devices that flood our daily lives. At the same time, it highlights a more relevant problem: can social media guide, suggest or impose a certain behaviour or thought? Everything seems to indicate that they can do it. Predictive Technology in Social Media comprises 10 essays that reflect on the power of the predictive technology of social media in culture, entertainment, marketing, economics and politics. It shows, from a humanistic and critical perspective, the predictive possibilities of social media platforms, as well as the risks this entails for cultural plurality, everyday consumption, the monopolistic concentration of the economy and attention, and democracy. The text is an invitation to think, as citizens, about the unbridled power we have ceded to digital platforms. A new voice to warn about the greatest concentration of communicative power ever seen in the history of humanity.
Detect fraud earlier to mitigate loss and prevent cascading damage Fraud Analytics Using Descriptive, Predictive, and Social Network Techniques is an authoritative guidebook for setting up a comprehensive fraud detection analytics solution. Early detection is a key factor in mitigating fraud damage, but it involves more specialized techniques than detecting fraud at the more advanced stages. This invaluable guide details both the theory and technical aspects of these techniques, and provides expert insight into streamlining implementation. Coverage includes data gathering, preprocessing, model building, and post-implementation, with comprehensive guidance on various learning techniques and the data types utilized by each. These techniques are effective for fraud detection across industry boundaries, including applications in insurance fraud, credit card fraud, anti-money laundering, healthcare fraud, telecommunications fraud, click fraud, tax evasion, and more, giving you a highly practical framework for fraud prevention. It is estimated that a typical organization loses about 5% of its revenue to fraud every year. More effective fraud detection is possible, and this book describes the various analytical techniques your organization must implement to put a stop to the revenue leak. Examine fraud patterns in historical data Utilize labeled, unlabeled, and networked data Detect fraud before the damage cascades Reduce losses, increase recovery, and tighten security The longer fraud is allowed to go on, the more harm it causes. It expands exponentially, sending ripples of damage throughout the organization, and becomes more and more complex to track, stop, and reverse. Fraud prevention relies on early and effective fraud detection, enabled by the techniques discussed here. Fraud Analytics Using Descriptive, Predictive, and Social Network Techniques helps you stop fraud in its tracks, and eliminate the opportunities for future occurrence.
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a
A Proven System to Grow Your Business . . . Today. Social media is the most energized business frontier the world has ever known, yet no one has been able to successfully predict outcomes. Until now. Jim Lupkin, one of the world's foremost social media architects, disrupts the status quo in social media. From the metrics behind his exclusive word-of-mouth formula to his luminous challenge to redefine success, Jim empowers readers to escape the traditional, artificial game of business in favor of an authentic, relationship-first social media movement. Vast and precise, innovative and actionable, Predictive Social Media escorts businesses of all sizes, solopreneurs to global corporations, out of the online darkness and into the light of a predictive way to engage the world.
Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.
This survey covers techniques and approaches that promise to directly enable opinion-oriented information-seeking systems.
Master modern web and network data modeling: both theory and applications. In Web and Network Data Science, a top faculty member of Northwestern University's prestigious analytics program presents the first fully-integrated treatment of both the business and academic elements of web and network modeling for predictive analytics. Some books in this field focus either entirely on business issues (e.g., Google Analytics and SEO); others are strictly academic (covering topics such as sociology, complexity theory, ecology, applied physics, and economics). This text gives today's managers and students what they really need: integrated coverage of concepts, principles, and theory in the context of real-world applications. Building on his pioneering Web Analytics course at Northwestern University, Thomas W. Miller covers usability testing, Web site performance, usage analysis, social media platforms, search engine optimization (SEO), and many other topics. He balances this practical coverage with accessible and up-to-date introductions to both social network analysis and network science, demonstrating how these disciplines can be used to solve real business problems.
Make personalized marketing a reality with this practical guide to predictive analytics Predictive Marketing is a predictive analytics primer for organizations large and small, offering practical tips and actionable strategies for implementing more personalized marketing immediately. The marketing paradigm is changing, and this book provides a blueprint for navigating the transition from creative- to data-driven marketing, from one-size-fits-all to one-on-one, and from marketing campaigns to real-time customer experiences. You'll learn how to use machine-learning technologies to improve customer acquisition and customer growth, and how to identify and re-engage at-risk or lapsed customers by implementing an easy, automated approach to predictive analytics. Much more than just theory and testament to the power of personalized marketing, this book focuses on action, helping you understand and actually begin using this revolutionary approach to the customer experience. Predictive analytics can finally make personalized marketing a reality. For the first time, predictive marketing is accessible to all marketers, not just those at large corporations — in fact, many smaller organizations are leapfrogging their larger counterparts with innovative programs. This book shows you how to bring predictive analytics to your organization, with actionable guidance that get you started today. Implement predictive marketing at any size organization Deliver a more personalized marketing experience Automate predictive analytics with machine learning technology Base marketing decisions on concrete data rather than unproven ideas Marketers have long been talking about delivering personalized experiences across channels. All marketers want to deliver happiness, but most still employ a one-size-fits-all approach. Predictive Marketing provides the information and insight you need to lift your organization out of the campaign rut and into the rarefied atmosphere of a truly personalized customer experience.
This book examines issues and implications of digital and social media marketing for emerging markets. These markets necessitate substantial adaptations of developed theories and approaches employed in the Western world. The book investigates problems specific to emerging markets, while identifying new theoretical constructs and practical applications of digital marketing. It addresses topics such as electronic word of mouth (eWOM), demographic differences in digital marketing, mobile marketing, search engine advertising, among others. A radical increase in both temporal and geographical reach is empowering consumers to exert influence on brands, products, and services. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and digital media are having a significant impact on the way people communicate and fulfil their socio-economic, emotional and material needs. These technologies are also being harnessed by businesses for various purposes including distribution and selling of goods, retailing of consumer services, customer relationship management, and influencing consumer behaviour by employing digital marketing practices. This book considers this, as it examines the practice and research related to digital and social media marketing.