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This book presents the first attempt to model the relationships among the distribution of power, international trade, and war. Edward Mansfield dispels the widespread belief that a monotonic relationship exists between the distribution of power and patterns of both war and trade.
International trade has shaped the modern world, yet until now no single book has been available for both economists and general readers that traces the history of the international economy from its earliest beginnings to the present day. Power and Plenty fills this gap, providing the first full account of world trade and development over the course of the last millennium. Ronald Findlay and Kevin O'Rourke examine the successive waves of globalization and "deglobalization" that have occurred during the past thousand years, looking closely at the technological and political causes behind these long-term trends. They show how the expansion and contraction of the world economy has been directly tied to the two-way interplay of trade and geopolitics, and how war and peace have been critical determinants of international trade over the very long run. The story they tell is sweeping in scope, one that links the emergence of the Western economies with economic and political developments throughout Eurasia centuries ago. Drawing extensively upon empirical evidence and informing their systematic analysis with insights from contemporary economic theory, Findlay and O'Rourke demonstrate the close interrelationships of trade and warfare, the mutual interdependence of the world's different regions, and the crucial role these factors have played in explaining modern economic growth. Power and Plenty is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the origins of today's international economy, the forces that continue to shape it, and the economic and political challenges confronting policymakers in the twenty-first century.
The relation between China and the United States is arguably the most important bilateral relation in the world today. The U.S. and China are respectively the largest and the second largest economies in the world. They are also respectively the largest and the second largest trading nations in the world as well as each other’s most important trading partner. If China and the U.S. work together as partners towards a common goal, many things are possible. However, there exist significant friction and potential conflict in their economic relations. The large and persistent U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is one of the problems. It is essential to know the true state of the China-U.S. trade balance before effective solutions can be devised to narrow the trade surplus or deficit. The impacts and potential impacts of the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S. on the two economies are analysed and discussed. The longterm forces that underlie the economic relations between the two countries beyond the 2018 trade war are examined. In this connection, how a “new type of major-power relation” between the two countries can help to keep the competition friendly and avert a war between them is explored. ~~~~~~~~ Lawrence J. Lau’s timely The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations is full of careful analysis, penetrating insight and helpful suggestions from the world’s preeminent economist on this relationship. —Michael J. Boskin Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics, Stanford University Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This sober and systematic study of U.S.-China trade relations and of technological development in the two countries is particularly timely. Lawrence Lau is one of the world’s foremost economists working on these issues. —Dwight H. Perkins Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus Former Chair, Department of Economics, Harvard University This is a timely and penetrating analysis of the China-U.S. trade and economic relations, from its origins to its impacts and to a way forward. —Yingyi Qian Chairman of the Council, Westlake University Former Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Counsellor of the State Council, People’s Republic of China Lawrence Lau’s book on the current U.S.-China trade war is insightful, balanced and comprehensive; rich in data on trade, investment, science and technology. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to get past the headlines. —A. Michael Spence Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University Lawrence Lau brings light in the form of rigorous honest fact-based economic analysis to a subject where most of the discussion has been heated bluster, false claims, and political rhetoric. —Lawrence H. Summers Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury; Former President, Harvard University There is no topic more important, or more timely, or more urgent, than the China-U.S. trade war. Professor Lau is the ideal person to write about the implications of the China-U.S. trade war and the proposed resolution. —Tung Chee-Hwa Vice-Chairman, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee Chairman, China-U.S. Exchange Foundation The history of Sino-American relations, to a great extent, has been a shared history. Lawrence Lau’s timely and penetrating study will tell us it is still in best interest for both countries if they continue to pursue a shared journey and destination instead of parting ways. —Xu Guoqi Kerry Group Professor in Globalization History, The University of Hong Kong Author of Chinese and Americans: A Shared History This beautifully composed book uses nontechnical language to unravel the intricacies of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, together with its long-term impact. I learned a lot from reading it. —Chen-Ning Yang Nobel Laureate in Physics (1957)
The story of oil is one of hubris, fortune, betrayal, and destruction. It is the story of a resource that has been undeniably central to the creation of our modern culture, and ever-present during the darkest exploits of empire the world over. For the past 150 years, oil has become the most essential ingredient for economic, military, and political power. And it has brought us to our present moment in which political leaders and the fossil-fuel industry consider extraordinary, and extraordinarily dangerous, policy on a world stage marked by shifting power bases. Upending the conventional wisdom by crafting a “people’s history,” award-winning journalist Matthieu Auzanneau deftly traces how oil became a national and then global addiction, outlines the enormous consequences of that addiction, sheds new light on major historical and contemporary figures, and raises new questions about stories we thought we knew well: What really sparked the oil crises in the 1970s, the shift away from the gold standard at Bretton Woods, or even the financial crash of 2008? How has oil shaped the events that have defined our times: two world wars, the Cold War, the Great Depression, ongoing wars in the Middle East, the advent of neoliberalism, and the Great Recession, among them? With brutal clarity, Oil, Power, and War exposes the heavy hand oil has had in all of our lives—and illustrates how much heavier that hand could get during the increasingly desperate race to control the last of the world’s easily and cheaply extractable reserves.
"Will international wars where energy resources play a central role continue to hold sway over life and death for industrialized nations, or is this a transient phase in the evolution of industrial societies? This book answers this question by tracing the history of energy and conflict from antiquity through the epic hot and cold wars of the twentieth century, to expected outcome of the war in Iraq. It points the way to the end of wars over control of fossil fuels, and demonstrates why these may be the last major international wars over other resources as well. This book is a must read for anyone interested in the future of energy use or international conflict. Readers will find in it an illuminating overview of the sweep of historical events. The book further provides a compelling explanation of how a thorough understanding of the evolutionary direction of these events challenges the conventional wisdom that resource wars are endemic to the nature of industrial society, thus offering a fresh view on oneof the most important challenges of our time"--P. 4 of cover.
Wherever international commerce flows in world politics, military power often flows with it - sometimes as a protector of commerce, sometimes as its promoters and sometimes as a tool of aggression against it. How are military power and international trade related? Do military power and commerce expand together or does military power decline as commerce (and perhaps interdependence) increases? Does this relationship vary across countries and, if so how? Power, Conflict and Trade is a study of the relationship between military power and international commerce among the Great Powers prior to World War I. After building an argument for a direct relationship between military power and commerce - one grounded in a mercantilist view of state power- and exploring their numerous connections, the book estimates models of the relationship among the Great Powers and explores a great deal of their commercial and military data, all of which is situated in the context of their mutual rivalries. Another question investigated is whether the peacetime conflicts and rivalries of the Great Powers affected their trade relations adversely. There is strong support for the argument that military power and commerce move together in world politics, though there is evidence for an inverse relationship as well.
How the massive power shift in Russia threatens the political dominance of the United States There is a new cold war underway, driven by a massive geopolitical power shift to Russia that went almost unnoticed across the globe. In The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp, energy expert Marin Katusa takes a look at the ways the western world is losing control of the energy market, and what can be done about it. Russia is in the midst of a rapid economic and geopolitical renaissance under the rule of Vladimir Putin, a tenacious KGB officer turned modern-day tsar. Understanding his rise to power provides the keys to understanding the shift in the energy trade from Saudi Arabia to Russia. This powerful new position threatens to unravel the political dominance of the United States once and for all. Discover how political coups, hostile takeovers, and assassinations have brought Russia to the center of the world's energy market Follow Putin's rise to power and how it has led to an upsetting of the global balance of trade Learn how Russia toppled a generation of robber barons and positioned itself as the most powerful force in the energy market Study Putin's long-range plans and their potential impact on the United States and the U.S. dollar If Putin's plans are successful, not only will Russia be able to starve other countries of power, but the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will replace the G7 in wealth and clout. The Colder War takes a hard look at what is to come in a new global energy market that is certain to cause unprecedented impact on the U.S. dollar and the American way of life.