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Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
In 1952, Harry Markowitz published "Portfolio Selection," a paper which revolutionized modern investment theory and practice. The paper proposed that, in selecting investments, the investor should consider both expected return and variability of return on the portfolio as a whole. Portfolios that minimized variance for a given expected return were demonstrated to be the most efficient. Markowitz formulated the full solution of the general mean-variance efficient set problem in 1956 and presented it in the appendix to his 1959 book, Portfolio Selection. Though certain special cases of the general model have become widely known, both in academia and among managers of large institutional portfolios, the characteristics of the general solution were not presented in finance books for students at any level. And although the results of the general solution are used in a few advanced portfolio optimization programs, the solution to the general problem should not be seen merely as a computing procedure. It is a body of propositions and formulas concerning the shapes and properties of mean-variance efficient sets with implications for financial theory and practice beyond those of widely known cases. The purpose of the present book, originally published in 1987, is to present a comprehensive and accessible account of the general mean-variance portfolio analysis, and to illustrate its usefulness in the practice of portfolio management and the theory of capital markets. The portfolio selection program in Part IV of the 1987 edition has been updated and contains exercises and solutions.
Investment and risk management problems are fundamental problems for financial institutions and involve both speculative and hedging decisions. A structured approach to these problems naturally leads one to the field of applied mathematics in order to translate subjective probability beliefs and attitudes towards risk and reward into actual decisions. In Risk and Portfolio Analysis the authors present sound principles and useful methods for making investment and risk management decisions in the presence of hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks using the simplest possible principles, methods, and models that still capture the essential features of the real-world problems. They use rigorous, yet elementary mathematics, avoiding technically advanced approaches which have no clear methodological purpose and are practically irrelevant. The material progresses systematically and topics such as the pricing and hedging of derivative contracts, investment and hedging principles from portfolio theory, and risk measurement and multivariate models from risk management are covered appropriately. The theory is combined with numerous real-world examples that illustrate how the principles, methods, and models can be combined to approach concrete problems and to draw useful conclusions. Exercises are included at the end of the chapters to help reinforce the text and provide insight. This book will serve advanced undergraduate and graduate students, and practitioners in insurance, finance as well as regulators. Prerequisites include undergraduate level courses in linear algebra, analysis, statistics and probability.
Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.
This book covers the classical results on single-period, discrete-time, and continuous-time models of portfolio choice and asset pricing. It also treats asymmetric information, production models, various proposed explanations for the equity premium puzzle, and topics important for behavioral finance.
"Nobel Prize-winning financial economist William Sharpe shows that investment professionals cannot make good portfolio choices unless they understand the determinants of asset prices." -- Provided by publisher.
This groundbreaking book extends traditional approaches of risk measurement and portfolio optimization by combining distributional models with risk or performance measures into one framework. Throughout these pages, the expert authors explain the fundamentals of probability metrics, outline new approaches to portfolio optimization, and discuss a variety of essential risk measures. Using numerous examples, they illustrate a range of applications to optimal portfolio choice and risk theory, as well as applications to the area of computational finance that may be useful to financial engineers.
An understanding of risk and how to deal with it is an essential part of modern economics. Whether liability litigation for pharmaceutical firms or an individual's having insufficient wealth to retire, risk is something that can be recognized, quantified, analyzed, treated--and incorporated into our decision-making processes. This book represents a concise summary of basic multiperiod decision-making under risk. Its detailed coverage of a broad range of topics is ideally suited for use in advanced undergraduate and introductory graduate courses either as a self-contained text, or the introductory chapters combined with a selection of later chapters can represent core reading in courses on macroeconomics, insurance, portfolio choice, or asset pricing. The authors start with the fundamentals of risk measurement and risk aversion. They then apply these concepts to insurance decisions and portfolio choice in a one-period model. After examining these decisions in their one-period setting, they devote most of the book to a multiperiod context, which adds the long-term perspective most risk management analyses require. Each chapter concludes with a discussion of the relevant literature and a set of problems. The book presents a thoroughly accessible introduction to risk, bridging the gap between the traditionally separate economics and finance literatures.
Hedge Funds summarizes the academic research on hedge funds and commodity trading advisors. The hedge fund industry has grown tremendously over the recent years. According to some industry estimates, hedge funds have increased from $39 million in 1990 to about $972 million in 2004 and the total number of hedge funds has gone up from 610 to 7,436 over the same period. At the same time, hedge fund strategies have changed significantly. In 1990 the macro strategy dominated the industry while in 2004 the equity hedge strategy had the largest share of the market. There has also been a shift in the type of investor in hedge funds. In the early 1990's the typical investor was a high net-worth individual investor, today the typical investor is an institutional investor. Thus, the hedge fund market has not only grown tremendously, but the nature of the market has changed. Despite the enormous growth of this industry, there is limited information available on hedge funds. As a result, there is a need for rigorous research from both the investors' and regulators' point of view. Investors need research to better understand their investment and their risk exposure. This research also helps investors recognize the extent of diversification benefits hedge funds offer in combination with investments in traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Regulators can use this research to identify situations where regulation may be needed to protect investors' interests and to understand the impact hedge funds trading strategies have on the stability of the financial markets. The first part of Hedge Funds summarizes hedge fund performance, including comparisons of risk-return characteristics of hedge funds with those of mutual funds, factors driving hedge fund returns, and persistence in hedge fund performance. The second part reviews research regarding the unique contractual features and characteristics of hedge funds and their influence on the risk-return tradeoffs. The third part reviews the role of hedge funds in a portfolio including the extent of diversification benefits and limitations of standard mean-variance framework for asset allocation. Finally, the authors summarize the research on the biases in hedge fund databases.
It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.