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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
This first report deals with some of the major development issues confronting the developing countries and explores the relationship of the major trends in the international economy to them. It is designed to help clarify some of the linkages between the international economy and domestic strategies in the developing countries against the background of growing interdependence and increasing complexity in the world economy. It assesses the prospects for progress in accelerating growth and alleviating poverty, and identifies some of the major policy issues which will affect these prospects.
This survey assembles recent theoretical and empirical advances in the literature on economic informality and analyzes the causes and costs of informality in developed and developing economies. Using recent evidence, the survey discusses the nature and roots of informal economic activity across countries, distinguishing between informality as the result of exclusion and exit. The survey provides an extensive review of recent international experience with policies aimed at reducing informality, in particular, policies that facilitate the formalization process, create a framework for the transition from informality to formality, lend support to newly created firms, reduce or eliminate inconsistencies across regulation and government agencies, increase information flows, and increase enforcement.
This paper describes a new cross-country database on the importance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This database is unique in that it presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the SME sector to total employment and GDP across different countries. The dataset improves on existing publicly available datasets on several grounds. First, it extends coverage to a broader set of developing and industrial economies. Second, it provides information on the contribution of the SME sector using a uniform definition of SMEs across different countries, allowing for consistent cross-country comparisons. Third, while we follow the traditional definition of the SME sector as being part of the formal sector, the new database also includes the size of the SME sector relative to the informal sector. This paper describes the sources and the construction of the different indicators, presents descriptive statistics, and explores correlations with other socioeconomic variables. This paper--a product of Finance, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to study SME-related issues.
Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.
Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.
While economic and social indicators in many Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have improved over the past three decades, the region’s blue natural assets—clean air, healthy seas, and coastlines—have degraded virtually everywhere. Air pollution levels in the region’s cities are among the highest in the world. Per capita marine plastic pollution is among the highest in the world; coastal erosion rates are the second fastest in the world. These combined challenges threaten local communities, livelihoods, and economies. In fact, the economic cost of MENA’s deteriorating skies and seas is estimated at more than 3 percent of GDP per year. Blue Skies, Blue Seas: Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa reviews integrated solutions that the authors identify as the “four I’s†?: • Inform stakeholders about the sources of these challenges. • Provide incentives that improve environmental outcomes for the public and the private sector. • Strengthen institutions to lower air and plastic pollution and to mitigate uncontrolled development and erosion of coastlines. • Invest in abatement options and promote sustainable solutions. Restoring MENA’s blue skies and seas will benefit the health, livelihoods, and incomes of residents. There will inevitably be trade-offs, but choosing a path of green growth will create jobs, diversify economies, and make the region a better place for current and future generations. The actions of policy makers today will shape the trajectory of economies and communities for decades to come.
The rise of populism is usually attributed by commentators to either income inequality or culture wars. We are witnessing, they argue, either the displaced anger of the 99% or the revenge of the ‘deplorables’ against the ‘liberal elite’. They are wrong. In this forensic book, Eric Protzer and Paul Summerville argue that populism is actually a response to a profound sense that many of the world’s leading economies are unfair. They show that in meritocratic countries, such as Australia, Canada, Portugal, and Japan, populism has not taken root. In contrast, the countries that have been hit by the worst populist upheavals - like the US, UK, France, and Italy – have low social mobility. The way to address populism is to restore the connection between contribution and reward and craft a politics that reclaims the reasonable grievances that drive populism while discarding its false diagnoses and toxic ‘solutions’. Reclaiming Populism is a must-read for policy-makers, scholars and citizens who want to understand the crises of our age and bring disenchanted populist voters back into the fold of liberal democracy.