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China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.
Climate change resulting from CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions poses a huge threat to human welfare. To contain that threat, the world needs to cut emissions by about 50 per cent by 2050, and to start cutting emissions now. A global agreement to take action is vital. A fair global deal will require the UK to cut emissions by at least 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. In this report, the Committee on Climate Change explains why the UK should aim for an 80 per cent reduction by 2050 and how that is attainable, and then recommends the first three budgets that will define the path to 2022. But the path is attainable at manageable cost, and following it is essential if the UK is to play its fair part in avoiding the far higher costs of harmful climate change. Part 1 of the report addresses the 2050 target. The 80 per cent target should apply to the sum of all sectors of the UK economy, including international aviation and shipping. The costs to the UK from this level of emissions reduction can be made affordable - estimated at between 1-2 per cent of GDP in 2050. In part 2, the Committee sets out the first three carbon budgets covering the period 2008-22, and examines the feasible reductions possible in various sectors: decarbonising the power sector; energy use in buildings and industry; reducing domestic transport emissions; reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases; economy wide emissions reductions to meet budgets. The third part of the report examines wider economic and social impacts from budgets including competitiveness, fuel poverty, security of supply, and differences in circumstances between the regions of the UK.
This outlook highlights climate-safe investment options until 2050, policies for transition and specific regional challenges. It also explores options to eventually cut emissions to zero.
Climate change is a global concern of special relevance to Southeast Asia, a region that is both vulnerable to the effects of climate change and a rapidly increasing emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study focuses on five countries of Southeast Asia that collectively account for 90% of regional GHG emissions in recent years---Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. It applies two global dynamic economy–energy–environment models under an array of scenarios that reflect potential regimes for regulating global GHG emissions through 2050. The modeling identifies the potential economic costs of climate inaction for the region, how the countries can most efficiently achieve GHG emission mitigation, and the consequences of mitigation, both in terms of benefits and costs. Drawing on the modeling results, the study analyzes climate-related policies and identifies how further action can be taken to ensure low-carbon growth.
This book seeks to model the possible emission trajectories and identify the feasible mitigation schemes for China to meet its climate commitments to peak emissions before 2030 and net zero emissions before 2060. In line with these ambitions, China has taken a number of measures to improve carbon efficiency and energy structure in recent years. The book first analyzes changes in the carbon footprint at the city level, identify the different pathways to peak emissions by province and industry, and develop a bottom-up approach to determining when and how China could reach peak emissions. It then illustrates how the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) reduces abatement costs, and examines the cost-saving effects under carbon intensity reduction and peak emissions targets. Based on the findings and the status quo in China, the authors propose a multicriteria allocation scheme for carbon emission allowances at the provincial level and quantify the impact of sectoral coverage on the abatement costs of the ETS by developing a cost-based approach to sectoral coverage in China. In addition, the co-benefits between CO2 and PM2.5 reductions as a result of the ETS operation are elaborated. The book will benefit researchers and policy-makers interested in environmental governance, climate policy, environmental economics, and sustainable development.
Washington’s strategic pivot to Asia and Beijing’s pursuit of new strategic and security interests in the region have led to increasing tensions between the two powers. US leaders have stressed that their increased interest in Asia is driven by a desire to benefit from the thriving regional economies, as well as to play the leading role in maintaining peace and stability in the region. However, Beijing is particularly concerned about US efforts to consolidate its alliances and deepen security partnerships with a number of regional states. Given the centrality of the two powers to the strategic stability and economic development of the region, these new dynamics in US-China relations must be properly understood and appropriately handled. This book examines the growing Sino-US strategic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific alongside the strategies employed in the management of this relationship. In turn, it illuminates the sources of conflict and cooperation in US-China relations, looking specifically at maritime disputes, economic relations, energy security, non-traditional security, defence and strategic forces, and Taiwan. Finally, it explores the role of regional states in shaping US-China relations, and in doing so covers the influence of Japan, India, the Korean Peninsula, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia. With chapters from leading scholars and analysts this book deals with a diverse range of issues including strategic rivalry, expanding regional trade relations, non-traditional security issues, the role of energy security, maritime security and how Asian states view their relations with the US and China respectively. New Dynamics in US-China Relations will be of huge interest to students and scholars of Asian politics, US politics, international relation and security studies, as well as practitioners involved in framing and implementing foreign, security and economic policy pertaining to the Asia Pacific.
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources - bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. SRREN brings a broad spectrum of technology-specific experts together with scientists studying energy systems as a whole. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, it presents an impartial assessment of the current state of knowledge: it is policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. SRREN is an invaluable assessment of the potential role of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, and academic researchers.
Based on a comprehensive study review by leading urban planning researchers, this investigative document demonstrates how urban development is both a key contributor to climate change and an essential factor in combating it -- by reducing vehicle greenhouse gas emissions.