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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 358: Statewide Travel Forecasting Models examines statewide travel forecasting models designed to address planning needs and provide forecasts for statewide transportation, including passenger vehicle and freight movements. The report explores the types and purposes of models being used, integration of state and urban models, data requirements, computer needs, resources (including time, funding, training, and staff), limitations, and overall benefits. The report includes five case studies, two that focus on passenger components, two on freight components, and one on both passenger and freight.
TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 716: Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques provides guidelines on travel demand forecasting procedures and their application for helping to solve common transportation problems.
"This report presents the automobile and light truck vmt forecasts for the years 2005, 2020 and intermediate years"--p. 1.
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the
"TRB's Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook presents step-by-step procedures for quantifying the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided. The report is supplemented by two products: an Excel spreadsheet that can be used to implement the procedures included in the workbook; and a methodology report, TCRP Web-Only Document 58, which documents how the research team developed the need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand. The Excel spreadsheet is available for download only from TRB's website"--Pub. info.
TRB Special Report 288, Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction, examines metropolitan travel forecasting models that provide public officials with information to inform decisions on major transportation system investments and policies. The report explores what improvements may be needed to the models and how federal, state, and local agencies can achieve them. According to the committee that produced the report, travel forecasting models in current use are not adequate for many of today's necessary planning and regulatory uses.