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Pakistan

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Published: 2016-01-12

Total Pages: 117


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This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that starting from a difficult position in 2013, Pakistan has made substantial progress in reducing near-term economic vulnerabilities. Economic growth gradually increased from 3.7 percent in FY2012/13 to 4.2 percent in FY2014/15. During the same period, efforts to reduce power subsidies and raise tax revenue have lowered the budget deficit from 8.4 to 5.4 percent of GDP, although part of this adjustment reflected clearance of quasi-fiscal liabilities in the energy sector in 2013. In the medium term, growth is expected to reach about 5.5 percent, and inflation is expected to gradually rebound to the State Bank of Pakistan’s target of mid-single digits.
The military rule of General Zia ul-Haq, former President of Pakistan, had significant political repercussions for the country. Islamization policies were far more pronounced and control over women became the key marker of the state's adherence to religious norms. Women's rights activists mobilized as a result, campaigning to reverse oppressive policies and redefine the relationship between state, society and Islam. Their calls for a liberal democracy led them to be targeted and suppressed. This book is a history of the modern women's movement in Pakistan. The research is based on documents from the Women's Action Forum archives, court judgments on relevant cases, as well as interviews with activists, lawyers and judges and analysis of newspapers and magazines. Ayesha Khan argues that the demand for a secular state and resistance to Islamization should not be misunderstood as Pakistani women sympathizing with a western agenda. Rather, their work is a crucial contribution to the evolution of the Pakistani state. The book outlines the discriminatory laws and policies that triggered domestic and international outcry, landmark cases of sexual violence that rallied women activists together and the important breakthroughs that enhanced women's rights. At a time when the women's movement in Pakistan is in danger of shrinking, this book highlights its historic significance and its continued relevance today.
Pakistan faces a number of threats from internal and external forces – with the aim of weakening the country and an attempt to ‘balkanise’ Pakistan in to different parts. The Pakistani Chief of Army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa has said that “a hybrid war had been imposed on Pakistan to internally weaken it, but noted that the enemies were failing to divide the country on the basis of ethnicity and other identities”. Furthermore he states, “Our enemies know that they cannot beat us fair and square and have thus subjected us to a cruel, evil and protracted hybrid war. They are trying to weaken our resolve by weakening us from within”. Conflicts in Ukraine, Israel and Lebanon (Hizbullah), Syria, Libya, War on Terror in Afghanistan and its impact in Pakistan etc., have resulted in multi-layered efforts to destabilise a functioning state and polarize its society. The centre of gravity is to target population in hybrid warfare. The aim of the adversary is to influence influential policy makers and key decision makers by combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts. The aggressor often resorts to covert actions, to avoid attribution or retribution. At the moment there is no universally accepted definition of hybrid wars – the term is too abstract and is seen by some as using a fancy term to refer to irregular methods to counter conventionally stronger forces. Accordingly, many say that the new definitions of 4th generation or hybrid wars are really the repackaging of the traditional clash between the armed forces of nation states and the non-state insurgents. This book will be assessing Pakistan’s insecurity and the hybrid wars imposed onto it by its adversaries. It will look at a number of issues that Pakistan is facing (military imbalance, economic and political weaknesses, internal and external security threats and the impact of hybrid warfare on Pakistan).
Imagining Pakistan argues that the creation of Pakistan is a result of Muslim modernism in the Subcontinent, as it defined the struggle for identity, nationalism, and empowerment of Muslim communities. This modernist movement represented the ideals of inclusivity, equal rights, a liberal constitutional framework, and a shared sense of political community among diverse ethnic and regional groups. However, while this modernity was the ideal of Pakistan’s founders, it faced resistance from Islamists obsessed with recovering a past legacy of lost Muslim glory. A major threat to political modernism also came from the military that wanted to create a strong and secure Pakistan through ‘controlled’ democracy. Multiple interventions by the military and deviations from the foundational republican ideas left Pakistan in the rough sea of power struggles, causing institutional decay and creating space for the rise of radical Islam. Imagining Pakistan analyzes the institutional imbalance between the military and the civilian groups, the idea of the security state, and the Islamist social forces and movements that have been engaged in the politics of Islamic revival. It argues that Pakistan’s stability, security and progress will depend on pursuing the path of political modernity. Although the restoration of parliamentary democracy and the resilience of the Pakistani society are hopeful signs, resolving the critical issues that Pakistan faces today will require consolidation of democracy, better leadership, and a moderate and modernist vision of both, the state and the society.