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The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Global Bioethanol: Evolution, Risks, and Uncertainties explores the conceptual and methodological approaches for the understanding of bioethanol technologies, policies and future perspectives. After a decade of huge investments made by big companies and governments all around the world, it is time to talk about the real conditions in which bioethanol will (or will not) evolve. Uncertainties and certainties are discussed and addressed to understand the futures of global bioethanol. The book analyses the evolution of bioethanol in the world's energy mix under technological, economic and commercial perspectives. It gives particular emphasis on the innovative trajectories of second-generation ethanol and their potential in different countries and regions. Future scenarios are proposed in order to evaluate the possible outcomes of ethanol in a global perspective. For providing a thorough overview of the bioethanol sector from different points of view, this book is a very useful resource for all involved with biofuels in general and bioethanol in particular, including energy engineers, researchers, consultants, analysts and policy makers. - Presents a thorough examination of the uncertainties surrounding bioethanol in the future global energy mix - Provides a data-driven and updated picture on the technological, economic, and market trends and scenarios for bioethanol - Offers a foresight analysis on the perspectives of bioethanol as a global commodity - Includes a prospective about who is going to lead the new trajectories in the global arena
Conventional Energy in North America: Current and Future Sources for Electricity Generation provides in-depth information on the current state of conventional energy sources used for electricity generation in the United States and Canada. As energy is a major force of civilization, determining, to a high degree, the level of economic and social development, this book provides relevant information and a deep analysis regarding the main problems associated with the use of fossil fuels for the generation of electricity in both countries. Finally, the book offers guidance for countries seeking to expand their use of conventional energy sources for electricity generation. Users in government, energy experts, economists, politicians, academics, scientific institutions and universities, international organizations and the private and public power industry will find this book to be a great reference on what type of conventional energy sources should be used for electricity generation with the aim of reducing the emission of CO2 and other contaminated gases to the atmosphere. - Includes comprehensive information on the different types of conventional energy sources available in the USA and Canada, including their impact on climate, level of energy reserves, and levels of production and consumption - Covers the pros and cons of each type of conventional energy source for electricity generation - Features an analysis of what types of conventional energy sources should be used for future electricity generation in the USA and Canada, with the aim of reducing the emission of CO2 and other contaminated gas to the atmosphere
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.