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NORAD's Missile Warning System: What Went Wrong?
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) is an independent agency that works for Congress. The GAO watches over Congress, and investigates how the federal government spends taxpayers dollars. The Comptroller General of the United States is the leader of the GAO, and is appointed to a 15-year term by the U.S. President. The GAO wants to support Congress, while at the same time doing right by the citizens of the United States. They audit, investigate, perform analyses, issue legal decisions and report anything that the government is doing. This is one of their reports.
Six false alarms occurred at NORAD in 1978, 1979, and 1980. These false alarms subsequently regenerated interest in launch policies and the increased possibility of accidental nuclear war, which motivated this investigation. We construct a new model to address several questions: What is the sequence of events and reasonable timing between events in the missile warning system? How much time do decision makers have to respond to a threat? What effects do United States launch policies have on decision-making time? How likely is accidental nuclear war? The results show that accidental nuclear war is not very probable with launch-under-attack, but significantly more likely if the Unite States adopts a launch-on-warning policy. The final decision and responsibility to use these policies, once they are implemented, rests entirely with the President of the United States. Keywords: Ballistic missile early warning system; Early warning system. (Theses).