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This is the eleventh volume in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to present, extend, and apply frontier work in macroeconomics, and to encourage and stimulate work by macroeconomists on current policy issues. These contributions offer a good sample of the current issues and exciting research directions in macroeconomics. Contents Credit, Business Investment, and Output Fluctuations in Japan, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Kenneth D. West * Causes and Consequences of Imperfections in the Consumer Price Index, Matthew D. Shapiro and David Wilcox * A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt, John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller * Technology Improvements and Productivity Slowdowns: Another Crazy Explanation, Andreas Hornstein and Per Krusell * Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?, Paul Krugman * Inequity and Growth, Roland Benabou
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
This is the fourth in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics. Contents: The Monetary History After Twenty-Five Years: New Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship, Christina Romer and David Romer Restrictions on Financial Intermediaries and Implecations for Aggregate Fluctuations: Canada and the U.S., 1870-1908, Stephen Williamson The Thatcher "Miracle", Charles Bean with Jim Symons The Revised NBER Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, James Stock and Mark Watson Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: The Euler Equation Approach Ten Years Later, John Campbell and N. Gregory Mankiw U.S. Earnings and Income Inequality: Recent Trends, Frank Levy Business Cycle Models with Increasing Returns, Kevin Murphy, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S. financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes “factorless income,” output that is not measured as capital or labor income. Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes.
Politicians win elections by promising 'Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!' but in practice these promises quickly fall by the wayside. The Goals of Macroeconomic Policy asks why. It begins with the observation that there is no convincing economic argument that full employment should be the primary objective of economic policy in all circumstances. In the light of this it examines whcy policy has failed so consistantly. It explains this by a theory of the labour market which shows why most workers are happy to operate in a way which militates against full employment. It then proceeds to analyse the rather dire consequences of this for the budget deficit.
This annual is designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics