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The five unresolved separatist conflicts of the post-Soviet space in Eastern Europe are the biggest risk to Europe’s stability and security. Four of these – Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and Nagorny Karabakh contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan – date back to around the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991-2, and became called ‘frozen conflicts’. The fifth is Ukraine’s Donbas, which in 2014 saw large parts of its Donetsk and Luhansk regions violently separate from Kyiv at a cost of 13,000 human lives so far, due crucially to Russia’s supporting hybrid warfare there. This book is the first to give an up-to-date account of all five conflicts in an analytically consistent manner. It charts new territory in exploring systematically a full range of scenarios for the possible future of all five conflicts and offers a basis of sound information for officials, diplomats, scholars and the general public.
At the EU's Helsinki summit in 1999, European leaders took a decisive step toward the development of a new Common European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) aimed at giving the EU a stronger role in international affairs backed by a credible military force. This report analyzes the processes leading to the ESDP by examining why and how this new European consensus came about. It touches upon the controversies and challenges that still lie ahead. What are the national interests and driving forces behind it, and what steps need to be taken to realize Europe's ambitions to achieve a workable European crisis mgmt. capability?
One of The New York Times’ “6 Books to Read for Context on Ukraine” “A short and insightful primer” to the crisis in Ukraine and its implications for both the Crimean Peninsula and Russia’s relations with the West (New York Review of Books) The current conflict in Ukraine has spawned the most serious crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. It has undermined European security, raised questions about NATO's future, and put an end to one of the most ambitious projects of U.S. foreign policy—building a partnership with Russia. It also threatens to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues ranging from terrorism to nuclear proliferation. And in the absence of direct negotiations, each side is betting that political and economic pressure will force the other to blink first. Caught in this dangerous game of chicken, the West cannot afford to lose sight of the importance of stable relations with Russia. This book puts the conflict in historical perspective by examining the evolution of the crisis and assessing its implications both for the Crimean Peninsula and for Russia’s relations with the West more generally. Experts in the international relations of post-Soviet states, political scientists Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer clearly show what is at stake in Ukraine, explaining the key economic, political, and security challenges and prospects for overcoming them. They also discuss historical precedents, sketch likely outcomes, and propose policies for safeguarding U.S.-Russia relations in the future. In doing so, they provide a comprehensive and accessible study of a conflict whose consequences will be felt for many years to come.
This book analyzes both NATO’s and the EU’s military crisis management operations and provides an explanation for the fact that it is sometimes NATO, sometimes the EU, and sometimes both international organizations that intervene militarily in a conflict. In detailed case studies on Libya, Chad/Central African Republic, and the Horn of Africa, Claudia Fahron-Hussey shows that the capabilities and preferences of the organizations matter most and the organizations’ bureaucratic actors influence the decision-making process of the member states.
In this new Brookings Marshall Paper, Michael O'Hanlon argues that now is the time for Western nations to negotiate a new security architecture for neutral countries in eastern Europe to stabilize the region and reduce the risks of war with Russia. He believes NATO expansion has gone far enough. The core concept of this new security architecture would be one of permanent neutrality. The countries in question collectively make a broken-up arc, from Europe's far north to its south: Finland and Sweden; Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus; Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and finally Cyprus plus Serbia, as well as possibly several other Balkan states. Discussion on the new framework should begin within NATO, followed by deliberation with the neutral countries themselves, and then formal negotiations with Russia. The new security architecture would require that Russia, like NATO, commit to help uphold the security of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other states in the region. Russia would have to withdraw its troops from those countries in a verifiable manner; after that, corresponding sanctions on Russia would be lifted. The neutral countries would retain their rights to participate in multilateral security operations on a scale comparable to what has been the case in the past, including even those operations that might be led by NATO. They could think of and describe themselves as Western states (or anything else, for that matter). If the European Union and they so wished in the future, they could join the EU. They would have complete sovereignty and self-determination in every sense of the word. But NATO would decide not to invite them into the alliance as members. Ideally, these nations would endorse and promote this concept themselves as a more practical way to ensure their security than the current situation or any other plausible alternative.
In the face of emerging new threats, the EU's capacity to build a distinctive role in crisis management remains problematic. Analysing EU policies and actions, this collection sheds light on the EU's role in managing crises and peacekeeping, exploring avenues for a strategic EU vision for security and defense.
Since the end of the Cold War, numerous conflicts have emerged within the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space which have affected international relations and highlighted the need for effective strategies for conflict resolution and management. This book presents papers delivered at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW), Best Practices and Lessons Learned in Conflict Management, held in Bratislava, Slovak Republic, in June 2015. The authors of these texts are recognized authorities within their fields of expertise. Issues raised by the conflict in Ukraine were the main focus of the workshop, as they are of this book, but it also contains valuable information about situations in other countries such as the Republic of Moldova, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Belarus. The book presents an analysis of the theoretical background of conflict management and its relevance for multilateral security institutions. It explores various approaches to conflict management, discusses possible future developments, examines new aspects of conflict resolution and outlines the role of international organizations and civil society in these processes. Providing an overview of current thought in the field, this book will be of interest to all those involved in or connected with the processes of conflict management and resolution.
NATO force posture upon its return to Europe : too little, too late / John R. Deni -- NATO's return : implications for extended deterrence / Schuyler Foerster -- Prospects and options for NATO's enlargement policy to Ukraine and beyond / Andrew T. Wolff -- NATO's territorial defense : the global approach and the regional approach / Magnus Petersson -- Still learning? NATO's Afghan lessons beyond the Ukraine crisis / Sten Rynning -- European security at a crossroads after Ukraine? institutionalization of partnerships and compliance with NATO's security policies / Ivan Dinev Ivanov -- The purpose of NATO partnership : sustaining liberal order beyond the Ukraine crisis / Rebecca R. Moore -- NATO-Russia technical cooperation : unheralded prospects / Damon Coletta -- The Ukraine crisis and beyond : strategic opportunity or strategic dilemma for the China-Russia strategic partnership? / Huiyun Feng -- Conclusion and comment : NATO's ever evolving identity / Stanley R. Sloan
Explains the trajectory of Turkish foreign policy behavior vis-...-vis the West, identifying the major factors behind intra-alliance opposition.