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Monitoring progress toward global health and development goals requires a basic understanding of levels, patterns, and trends in mortality. National health, population, and social services planning also depend on reliably measuring mortality rates. Yet current practice in estimating mortality levels in populations does not adequately capture the impact of recent public health crises, including the AIDS epidemic, war, and natural disasters. Mortality Estimation for National Populations provides a comprehensive methodological reassessment on how mortality is measured, resulting in new, unbiased, and comparable estimates of age-specific mortality rates, life expectancy by age, and other health indicators for 187 national populations. A novel feature of this work is the estimation of annual mortality rates from 1970 to 2011, providing important perspectives on the pace of mortality change in countries. To provide better age- and sex-specific measurements for all-cause mortality, this book thoroughly updates formal demographic methods including summary birth history, sibling survival, and death distribution methods. Innovative statistical models such as spatial-temporal and Gaussian process regressions are used as data synthesizing tools. New demographic models to estimate mortality for neonatal age groups and new model life tables are developed and applied. Validation studies demonstrate that these new methods provide estimates with higher predictive validity than those based on conventional methods. Detailed case studies of the methods' application to Ethiopia, India, and Nicaragua are included. Christopher J.L. Murray is professor of global health and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Alan D. Lopez is head of the School of Population Health at the University of Queensland, Australia. Haidong Wang is assistant professor of global health at IHME.
Situations involving conflict and forced migration have become increasingly commonplace in today's world. The need to understand the causes, consequences, and characteristics of these situations is creating a burgeoning field of research. But given the nature of complex emergency settings, traditional research guidelines may be inappropriate. The research and policy community has recognized this problem and has begun to address issues surrounding the ethics of doing research in emergency settings and among conflict-affected and displaced populations. The Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, under the aegis of the Committee on Population of the National Research Council, held a workshop to examine some of these issues. This report to the roundtable summarizes the workshop presentations and discussion.
In the wake of a large-scale disaster, from the initial devastation through the long tail of recovery, protecting the health and well-being of the affected individuals and communities is paramount. Accurate and timely information about mortality and significant morbidity related to the disaster are the cornerstone of the efforts of the disaster management enterprise to save lives and prevent further health impacts. Conversely, failure to accurately capture mortality and significant morbidity data undercuts the nation's capacity to protect its population. Information about disaster-related mortality and significant morbidity adds value at all phases of the disaster management cycle. As a disaster unfolds, the data are crucial in guiding response and recovery priorities, ensuring a common operating picture and real-time situational awareness across stakeholders, and protecting vulnerable populations and settings at heightened risk. A Framework for Assessing Mortality and Morbidity After Large-Scale Disasters reviews and describes the current state of the field of disaster-related mortality and significant morbidity assessment. This report examines practices and methods for data collection, recording, sharing, and use across state, local, tribal, and territorial stakeholders; evaluates best practices; and identifies areas for future resource investment.
Mortality Patterns in National Populations: With Special Reference to Recorded Causes of Death aims to interpret the account left by millions of death certificates that have been recorded in 43 nations. The book discusses a ""model"" of the cause structure of mortality at various levels of mortality from all causes combined; the effect of various causes on the chances of death and longevity; and the contribution of economic factors to declines in mortality during the 20th century. The text also describes the causes of death and age patterns of mortality; the causes of death responsible for variation in sex mortality differentials; and the demographic and social consequences of various causes of death in the United States. Demographers and ecologists will find the book invaluable.
The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any reader interested in using the methods may obtain copies of our code as follows: Intelligible Structured Code 1. Hutchinson and deHoog's algorithm for fitting smoothing splines by cross validation 2. Cubic covariant area-approximating splines 3. Cubic interpolating splines 4. Cubic area matching splines 5. Hyman's algorithm for monotonic interpolation based on cubic splines. Prototype User-Hostile Code 6. Positive constrained interpolation 7. Positive constrained area matching 8. The "full method" from chapter 4 9. The "simpler" method from chapter 4.
Current data and trends in morbidity and mortality for the sub-Saharan Region as presented in this new edition reflect the heavy toll that HIV/AIDS has had on health indicators, leading to either a stalling or reversal of the gains made, not just for communicable disorders, but for cancers, as well as mental and neurological disorders.