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Why is moving from moderate to low inflation almost always slow or costly? This paper answers this question, based on the Polish experience. First, reflecting the transition to a market economy, Polish inflation has been marked by significant changes in relative prices. Second, as wage and price indexation takes root, the inflationary effect of shocks to relative prices is magnified. Third, lagging structural reform, including the failure to extend hard budget constraints to all sectors of the economy, makes monetary policy less effective. Reduced money supply growth with structural reform offers the best prospect for moving to low inflation.
Many countries, including several transition economies, have in the last few years recorded a sharp decline in inflation, but have been unable to bring inflation down to lower single digits or to achieve price stability. In these countries, inflation has stabilized at moderate levels, with further progress becoming seemingly more difficult. What are the problems created by moderate inflation? What is the appropriate speed of disinflation? These and other issues related to disinflation in transition economies are taken up in this book, edited by Carlo Cottarelli and Gyorgy Szapáry.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Simatupang examines the circumstances that led to the revolution of 1989, primarily the economic slump of the 1980s and the severe recession that preceeded it, and its effects on the Polish people.
Is the economic reform of Central Europe influenced by or an influence upon capital markets? Where does globalization fit in? Ken Morita's pioneering work investigates the relationship between the systemic transition of Central European economies and capital markets, in particular the commodity futures markets and speculation.
Economic policy, conditions and stabilization.
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
This 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the Poland examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapters cover: Skills and migration; Transport and energy infrastructure.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.