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Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies. Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked. A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 201. Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System brings together for the first time a detailed description of the physics of the IT system in conjunction with numerical techniques to solve the complex system of equations that describe the system, as well as issues of current interest. Volume highlights include discussions of: Physics of the ionosphere and thermosphere IT system, and the numerical methods to solve the basic equations of the IT system The physics and numerical methods to determine the global electrodynamics of the IT system The response of the IT system to forcings from below (i.e., the lower atmosphere) and from above (i.e., the magnetosphere) The physics and numerical methods to model ionospheric irregularities Data assimilation techniques, comparison of model results to data, climate variability studies, and applications to space weather Providing a clear description of the physics of this system in several tutorial-like articles, Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System is of value to the upper atmosphere science community in general. Chapters describing details of the numerical methods used to solve the equations that describe the IT system make the volume useful to both active researchers in the field and students.
This two-volume book describes a flexible and adaptive system-based methodology and associated guidelines for the management and allocation of community-based WELF resources. Over the next 50 years, rapid population, urbanization, and economic growth worldwide will create unprecedented demands for water, energy, land, and food (WELF) resources. The discussion on how to meet human needs for WELF resources and how to guarantee their respective securities has changed over time from looking at all four sectors in isolation to understanding their interdependency through the so-called WELF nexus. The approach presented in this book responds to the overall agreement in the WELF nexus literature that the management and allocation of WELF resources at the community level need to be examined in a more systemic, multidisciplinary, participatory, and practical manner while seeking to increase synergies and reduce trade-offs. This book was written to explore the value proposition of that approach. This two-volume book describes a flexible and adaptive system-based methodology and associated guidelines for the management and allocation of community-based WELF resources. Volume 1 focuses on defining the landscape in which the nexus operates and outlines the proposed methodology. Volume 2 explores the quantitative and qualitative modeling of the nexus and landscape using system modeling tools including system dynamics. It presents a road map for the formulation, simulation, selection, and ranking of possible intervention plans. The proposed methodology is designed to serve as a guide for different groups involved in the science and policy decision aspects of the WELF nexus within the context of community development. The methodology focuses mostly on WELF-related issues in small-scale and low-income communities where securing resources is critical to their short- and long-term livelihood and development.
This book introduces the technical foundations and tools for estimating the power consumption of internet networks and services, including a detailed description of how these models are constructed and applied. Modeling the Power Consumption and Energy Efficiency of Telecommunications Networks can be used to gain insight into the construction of mathematical models that provide realistic estimates of the power consumption of internet networks and services. This knowledge enables forecasting the energy footprint of future networks and services to integrate sustainability and environmental considerations into network planning and design. FEATURES Provides the motivation for developing mathematical models for telecommunications network and service power consumption and energy efficiency modeling Presents factors impacting overall network and service power consumption Discusses the types of network equipment and their power consumption profiles Reviews the basics of power modeling, including network segmentation, traffic forecasting, top-down and bottom-up models, wired and wireless networks, data centers and servers Explores the application of energy efficiency metrics for equipment, networks, and services This book is aimed at students and technologists as well as technology managers and policy makers. This book will be of value to any organization that wishes to estimate the energy footprint of the use of information and communications technologies. This book can also be integrated into a course on the sustainability of information and communications technologies.
Providing a reliable and resilient supply of electric power to communities across the United States has always posed a complex challenge. Utilities must support daily operations to serve a diverse array of customers across a heterogeneous landscape while simultaneously investing in infrastructure to meet future needs, all while juggling an enormous array of competing priorities influenced by costs, capabilities, environmental and social impacts, regulatory requirements, and consumer preferences. A rapid pace of change in technologies, policies and priorities, and consumer needs and behaviors has further compounded this challenge in recent years. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on February 3, 2020 to explore strategies for incorporating new technologies, planning and operating strategies, business models, and architectures in the U.S. electric power system. Speakers and participants from industry, government, and academia discussed available models for long-term transmission and distribution planning, as well as the broader context of how these models are used and future opportunities and needs. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Human well-being is inextricably linked to the condition of the natural environment. Environmental management decisions often aim to maintain ecosystems in a healthy and resilient condition while providing the ecosystem goods and services that humans want and need. Models, methods, frameworks, and metrics are needed to characterize and forecast the potential benefits from remediation, restoration, and revitalization that improve human health and well-being through the delivery of ecosystem services. However, ecosystems are complex, and layering on social and economic considerations can make environmental decision-making seem intractable. Dynamics of socio-ecological systems are complicated, making models a pivotal tool for identifying and quantifying relationships, assessing historical patterns, and forecasting alternative decision scenarios. The goal of this Research Topic is to leverage modeling approaches to provide science-based evidence, metrics, and frameworks and methods for quantifying how restored ecosystem goods and services lead to benefits for public health, community well-being, and economic vitality. Modeling approaches may range in complexity from conceptual models to statistical models to dynamic process models, empirically-derived to mechanistic to participatory. Research will evaluate connections between ecosystem condition, ecosystem services, and human health and well-being, and may include covarying socio-economic or biophysical factors that modify relationships between ecosystem health and perceived or realized benefits. Applications or case studies will demonstrate how to integrate community priorities with nature-based solutions to enhance benefits of environmental remediation, ecological restoration, community revitalization, and climate resilience decisions.
Jesus said, “I praise you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth ...” (Lk. 10:21 NIV) Jesus called God his Father, and he taught his followers to think of God as their Father too, saying, “This, then, is how you should pray: ‘Our Father in heaven ...’ ” (Mt. 6:9 NIV) The Scripture describes our Father God as loving and compassionate, just yet gracious, merciful and forgiving. But what if hearing the words “Father in heaven” evokes in our children’s minds negative images from adverse experiences they have had with their own fathers on earth? As explained in MODELING THE HEAVENLY FATHER TO EARTHLY CHILDREN, we Christian dads, as well as grandfathers and other influential male adults, have the responsibility and privilege to raise our boys and girls, sons and daughters of all ages, in such a way as to give them an accurate and positive understanding of who God really is. We do this by emulating and modeling divine attributes like justice and abhorrence of evil, but also kindness, wisdom, communication, compassion, and most certainly love. This will take dedication and perseverance; nonetheless, we must rise to this challenge, for our kids will be watching us and learning about what “heavenly Father” really means.
This book shows how the load unit was created, and how it changed from the simplest basket to the modern metal container. A model of the stages of change of the load unit is presented, and the reasons for the changes and a possible new path of development are indicated.
Assets and Liabilities management of financial institution is a complex matter. Following the crisis, regulators are more demanding and banks must put in place the best practices. This book presents the fundamentals for modeling accurately a commercial bank and managing its balance sheet.