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In recent years, airline flight delays have been among the most vexing problems in the national transportation system. They reached unprecedented levels in 2000, when one flight in four was delayed. Although bad weather has historically been the main cause of delays, a growing reason has been the inability of the nations air transport system to efficiently absorb all of the aircraft trying to use limited airspace or trying to take off or land at busy airports. Recent events most notably the terrorist attacks on buildings in New York City and Washington, D.C., using hijacked airliners, and the economic slowdown that preceded these attacks have changed the extent of the delay problem, at least for the short term. With many airlines cutting their flights by 20 percent or more, the air transport system is having less difficulty absorbing the volume of flights. Whether the volume of flights will continue at these lowered levels is unknown. However, it is likely that a more robust economy and less public apprehension about flying will lead to renewed demands on the air transport system. If so, concerns about delays and the actions being taken to address them may once again command national attention.
This report provides a guidebook on how to develop air traffic forecasts in the face of a broad range of uncertainties. It is targeted at airport operators, planners, designers, and other stakeholders involved in planning, managing, and financing of airports, and it provides a systems analysis methodology that augments standard master planning and strategic planning approaches. This methodology includes a set of tools for improving the understanding and application of risk and uncertainty in air traffic forecasts as well as for increasing overall effectiveness of airport planning and decision making. In developing the guidebook, the research team studied existing methods used in traditional master planning as well as methods that directly address risk and uncertainty, and based on that fundamental research, they created a straightforward and transparent systems analysis methodology for expanding and improving traditional planning practices, applicable through a wide range of airport sizes. The methods presented were tested through a series of case study applications that also helped to identify additional opportunities for future research and long-term enhancements.