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Substantial numbers of the world’s chronically poor and malnourished population live in an increasingly volatile world. The dangerous nexus of climate change, rapid population growth, conflict, and food price volatility already appears to have pushed several poor regions into states of permanent crisis, even as the rest of the world has seen unprecedented progress against poverty. This disturbing state of affairs, along with our expanded knowledge of the intimate interactions between short-term shocks and long-run development, has catalyzed widespread interest in resilience building, and in what such a framework implies for understanding the causes and consequences of acute vulnerability to natural and man-made disasters. In this paper we ask what this paradigm implies for the measurement and analysis of resilience. Resilience is fundamentally about complex dynamics. Slower-moving ecological, economic, demographic, and social stressors create vulnerability to short-run shocks, which in turn can have long-term consequences by reinforcing preexisting vulnerabilities. In our view, this basic conception of resilience has fundamental measurement implications. First, resilience can be measured and understood only through higher-frequency surveys that capture the causes and consequences of time-varying stressors and shocks, including seasonal shocks. Second, resilience can be understood only through surveys that capture the multidimensional complexity of stressors, shocks, and feedback loops, including the complex interactions between economic, social, and ecological forces. Third, the underlying stressors that create vulnerability, and the resilience-building interventions that reduce vulnerability, can be gauged and evaluated only over the longer term. This conceptualization of resilience motivates us to go a step further than existing research on resilience and on food and nutrition security measurement, by outlining a far more expansive strategy for improving and scaling up the monitoring, measurement, and analysis of the world’s most vulnerable populations. We propose the development of a multicountry system of high-frequency, long-term sentinel sites in the world’s most vulnerable regions. If implemented along the lines we conceive, this system could be a high-return investment for resilience-building efforts, since it would serve multiple purposes. This system offers the only rigorous means of monitoring vulnerability and resilience in the world’s most volatile regions. This system would bolster existing early-warning systems by complementing them with household-level indicators. This system would improve the targeting of emergency resources. This system would be instrumental for diagnosing the underlying sources of vulnerability, for identifying key thresholds of resilience, and for designing appropriate resilience-building strategies. And this system would provide a rigorous foundation for large-scale evaluations of resilience-building activities. While there are strong justifications for such a system, the devil is necessarily in the details, and much of this paper is concerned with those details. Largely to learn from existing experience, we first review existing measurement strategies that are similar in purpose or design to the sentinel system outlined above. When implemented, long-term, high-frequency measurement systems have often yielded great benefits but been hampered by cost, lack of institutional coordination, and insufficient dissemination and usage of data. The need to keep costs down and benefits widespread therefore motivates us to consider which countries in the world have the highest priority for the development of sentinel sites, based on indicators such as child nutrition and health outcomes, exposure to disasters, and past emergency assistance levels from the international community. We then turn to crucial issues of data collection design by outlining a hybrid sampling and survey design that will help achieve the various objectives outlined above while keeping costs down. We also argue that the proliferation of mobile phones and other information and communications technologies offers substantial scope for a cost-effective system of this kind, far more so than would have been available in the past. Finally, we consider who should lead and contribute to this ambitious effort. Since the principal advantage of this approach is that it can yield benefits for a wide range of institutions and purposes (relief and development, operations and research, social and biophysical sciences), and since the costs of a long-term commitment to these sentinel surveys would be large indeed for any single agency, we propose the need for a relatively broad consortium of international donors. This consortium should first focus on establishing partnerships with national governments and then commit to long-term resilience monitoring as well as domestic capacity building. With this essential commitment in place, this consortium would then need to secure implementing partners with a permanent presence on the ground, as well as the technical expertise of international organizations of various sorts. Ultimately, we argue, it is only this kind of long-term, cooperative commitment that will provide a scientific evidence base for diagnosing and resolving the world’s worst problems of hunger, poverty, and malnutrition. Only this kind of sentinel system can generate the data and evidence needed to inform actions to build resilience and to help the global community eliminate extreme poverty in the generation ahead. The status quo is simply not enough.
Much of the world’s chronically poor and malnourished population lives in an increasingly volatile world. The dangerous nexus of climate change, rapid population growth, conflict, and economic stagnation has already pushed several poor regions into states of permanent crisis, even as the rest of the world has enjoyed unprecedented progress against poverty. This disturbing state of affairs, along with our expanded knowledge of the intimate interactions between short-term shocks and long-run development, has catalyzed widespread interest in resilience building and in what a resilience framework implies for our understanding of the causes and consequences of acute vulnerability to natural and man-made disasters. We propose that the development community invest in a new multicountry system of sentinel sites to undertake long-term, high-frequency measurement and analysis of individual, household, and community resilience in the world’s most vulnerable regions.
We live in a fundamentally changed world. It’s time for your approach to strategy to change, too. The evidence is all around us. Extreme weather, driven by climate change, is shattering records all over the planet. Our natural resources are in greater demand than ever before as a billion more people enter the global middle class, wanting more of everything. Radical transparency is opening up company operations and supply chains to public scrutiny. This is not some futuristic scenario or model to debate, but today’s reality. We've passed an economic tipping point. A weakening of the foundations of our planetary infrastructure is costing businesses dearly and putting our society at risk. The mega challenges of climate change, scarcity, and radical transparency threaten our ability to run an expanding global economy and are profoundly changing “business as usual.” But they also offer unprecedented opportunities: multi-trillion-dollar markets are in play, and the winners of this new game will profit mightily. According to Andrew Winston, bestselling author (Green to Gold) and globally recognized business strategist, the way companies currently operate will not allow them to keep up with the current—and future—rate of change. They need to make the Big Pivot. In this indispensable new book, Winston provides ten crucial strategies for leaders and companies ready to move boldly forward and win in this new reality. With concrete advice and tactics, and new stories from companies like British Telecom, Diageo, Dow, Ford, Nike, Unilever, Walmart, and many others, The Big Pivot will help you, and all of us, create more resilient businesses and a more prosperous world. This book is the blueprint to get you started.
The first round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS)–a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,100 households–was implemented between December 2021 and February 2022. The objective of the survey was to collect data on a wide range of household and individual welfare indicators–including wealth, livelihoods, unemployment, food insecurity, diet quality, health shocks, and coping strategies–in a country exceptionally hard hit by conflict, severe economic collapse, and several damaging waves of COVID-19. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. In this paper, we discuss two key steps taken to ensure that the MHWS is nationally and subnationally representative at the state/region and urban/rural level. First, we used a quota-based sampling strategy by setting survey quotas for respondents’ geography, education, farming status, gender, and rural/urban residence. This sampling strategy is used to address the well-known drawbacks of phone survey samples (e.g., the over-sampling of more educated respondents) and the survey’s particular interest in over-sampling farm households and equally sampling men and women. Second, we constructed household, population, and individual level weighting factors to further ensure that the survey generates nationally and subnationally representative statistics. To assess the effectiveness of these two strategies on achieving representativeness and consistency with previous surveys, we compare results from the MHWS to earlier nationally representative datasets, focusing on sample sizes of interviewed households for each state/region, and on education levels, farm/non-farm occupation, urban/rural residence, as well as respondents’ housing characteristics, which are unlikely to change substantially over short periods of time. We show that the phone-based MHWS has broader geographical coverage than previous national surveys, reaching 310 of Myanmar’s 330 townships. Moreover, our sampling approach was generally effective in reducing the education bias of phone surveys, except for a handful of states/regions. The MHWS is also unique in providing equal representation of male and female respondents. Additionally, the MHWS sampling and weighting strategies produce statistics on key indicators that closely mirror results from the two most recent national surveys in Myanmar. Overall, the results suggest that these strategies are successful in generating a subnationally representative phone survey that collected data on a rich array of household welfare indicators in exceptionally difficult political and economic circumstances.
Economic shocks including food price shocks, environmental shocks, social shocks, political shocks, health shocks, and many other types of shocks hit poor people and communities around the world, compromising their efforts to improve their well-being. As shocks evolve and become more frequent or intense, they further threaten people’s food and nutrition security and their livelihoods. How do we help people and communities to become more resilient, to not only bounce back from shocks but to also to get ahead of them and improve their well-being so that they are less vulnerable to the next shock? How do we get better at coping with—and even thriving—in the presence of shocks?
The COVID-19 crisis in Myanmar poses a very serious risk to the nutritional status of vulnerable populations, notably women and children, as well as poor urban populations and internally displaced persons. The COVID-19 crisis will hit vulnerable groups through multiple mechanisms.
Food systems face shocks varying in breadth and duration from a wide array of sources. These shocks can affect all aspects of a country’s food system, threatening the food security of its citizens. Low levels of capacity to address food system shocks are a major development challenge. This paper presents a conceptual framework for assessing the capacity of a food system to become more resilient, regardless of what kind of threat it faces. It suggests that food systems can be categorized into three subsystems: a policy system; markets, trade, and institutions; and a production system. Within each of these systems, three dimensions of capacity are analyzed: individual capacity, organizational capacity, and system capacity. The paper explores examples of building capacity within this framework and identifies key knowledge and research gaps. It also presents a typology as a possible tool for prioritizing investments in capacity building for resilience across countries.
Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume Five highlights new advances in the field, with this new release exploring comprehensive chapters written by an international board of authors who discuss topics such as The Economics of Agricultural Innovation, Climate, food and agriculture, Agricultural Labor Markets: Immigration Policy, Minimum Wages, Etc., Risk Management in Agricultural Production, Animal Health and Livestock Disease, Behavioral and Experimental Economics to Inform Agri-Environmental Programs and Policies, Big Data, Machine Learning Methods for Agricultural and Applied Economists, Agricultural data collection to minimize measurement error and maximize coverage, Gender, agriculture and nutrition, Social Networks Analysis In Agricultural Economics, and more. - Presents the latest release in the Handbook of Agricultural Economics - Written and contributed by leaders in the field - Covers topics such as The Economics of Agricultural Innovation, Climate, Food and Agriculture, Agricultural Labor Markets, and more
Not Sure What the Future Holds? No Problem. It's hard not to be worried about the future, especially if you just lost your job, are trying to plan your career, or are suddenly missing thousands of dollars from your retirement account. In Optionality, finance journalist Richard Meadows lays out a guide for not only becoming resilient to shocks, but positioning yourself to profit from an unpredictable world. Meadows takes us on a journey from quitting his office job at age 25, to lounging on tropical beaches living the early retirement dream, to finding and adopting an ancient philosophy for systematically pursuing the good life. Learn how to: • Find investment opportunities with open-ended upside, and maximise the chances of a 'moonshot' success • Make life-changing choices under conditions of uncertainty • Achieve the kind of financial freedom that lets you live life on your own terms • Protect against disaster, build support networks, and create a safety buffer of resilience in every area of life • Develop a systems approach to making your own luck Optionality is the key to navigating an uncertain world. In this entertaining and insightful debut, Meadows delivers a timely message: optionality has never been so valuable, and only those who have it will survive and thrive.
All systems break down. Some bounce back, others do not. This is a book about why. Covering business, economic, geographic and social systems, Zolli uncovers a wealth of absorbing examples--from the link between US oil prices and the recent 'tortilla riots' in Mexico to what was really happening when the U.S. government decided not to bail out Lehman Bros.