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Malawi, a fragile state with one of the highest incidences of poverty, food insecurity and frequent weather-related shocks, has been severely affected by the pandemic. There are signs of gradual recovery and daily COVID-19 positive cases remain relatively low: real GDP growth in 2021 is projected to pick up to 2.2 percent from 0.9 percent in 2020 helped by a good harvest. However, inflation is expected to increase to 9 percent in 2021 from 8.6 percent in 2020, driven by increases in prices of fuel, fertilizer and food, leaving real per capita growth in the negative region.
Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns.
While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.

Malawi

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Published: 2022-11-23

Total Pages: 121


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Foreign exchange shortages together with exchange rate misalignment led to a sharp decline in imports including fuel, fertilizer, medicine, and food. Large fiscal deficits, nearly 10 percent of GDP in FY2021/22, have been largely financed by domestic bank borrowing, resulting in rapid money growth and inflation of 25.9 percent in September 2022. Exchange rate pass-through and hikes in food prices added to inflationary pressure. In addition, food insecurity in Malawi has increased dramatically under the impact of multiple tropical storms, below-average crop production, and increasing prices for food and agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. The latter are expected to affect the current planting season. As a result of these factors, about 20 percent of the population is projected to be acutely food insecure during the upcoming 2022/23 lean season (October 2022-March 2023), more than twice as many as in 2021.
With both domestic and external financing expected to dry up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, this book argues that there is a need for fresh ideas and new strategies for achieving sustainable development in Africa. In addition to triggering the most severe recession in nearly a century, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global value chains, causing unprecedented damage to healthcare systems, economies, and well-being, hitting the world’s most vulnerable people the hardest. Even before the pandemic, Africa was suffering from the effects of low commodity prices, sluggish GDP growth, high debt levels, low levels of domestic savings, and weak private capital inflows. This book argues that now, as the continent emerges from the current crisis, it will be important to reconfigure current financing sources under a forward-looking framework that incorporates other non-traditional financing tools and mechanisms such as public-private partnerships, sovereign wealth funds, gender lens investing, new growth drivers, and emerging and disruptive technologies. Finally, the book concludes by adopting a sectoral approach and examining the real economy impacts of new growth drivers such as agriculture value chains, industrialization, tourism, and the blue economy. Drawing on a range of original research as well as insights from practice, this book will be a useful guide for Global Development and African Studies researchers, as well as for policy makers, investors, finance specialists, and global business practitioners and entrepreneurs.
The Malawian economy is slowly recovering, thanks to corrective measures such as the floating exchange rate regime and liberated current account transactions. Stringent fiscal discipline, restrained monetary policies, and boosting of international reserves have been suggested as measures for controlling inflation and stabilizing the macroeconomy. Operation power and freedom for results-based management (RBM) and implementation of Malawi Growth and Development Strategy II (MGDS-II) are also suggested by the Executive Board. Measures to ensure revenue gain concurrent with spending have also been recommended.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.