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Discover current uses and future development of stress tests, the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises.
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
In the presence of adverse macroeconomic shocks, simultaneous capital losses in multiple banks can prompt them to contract their balance sheets. These bank responses generate externalities that propagate in the form of macro-financial feedback loops. This paper develops a credit response and externalities analysis model (CREAM) that integrates a disaggregated banking sector into an otherwise standard macroeconomic structural vector autoregressive model. It shows that accounting for macro-financial feedback loops can significantly affect macroeconomic outcomes and bank-specific stress tests results. The heterogeneity in bank lending responses matters: it determines how each bank fares under adverse conditions and the external effects that banks impose on each other and on economic activity. The model can thus be used to assess the contributions of individual banks to systemic risk along the time dimension.
Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.
Stress tests are used in risk management by banks in order to determine how certain crisis scenarios would affect the value of their portfolios, and by public authorities for financial stability purposes. Until the first half of 2007, interest in stress-testing was largely restricted to practitioners. Since then, the global financial system has been hit by deep turbulences, including the fallout from sub-prime mortgage lending. Many observers have pointed out that the severity of the crisis has been largely due to its unexpected nature and have claimed that a more extensive use of stress-testing methodologies would have helped to alleviate the repercussions of the crisis. This book analyses the theoretical underpinnings, as well as the practical aspects, of applying such methodologies. Building on the experience gained by the economists of many national and international financial authorities, it provides an updated toolkit for both practitioners and academics.
Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.
Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.
Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks provides a comprehensive view of the risk management activity by means of the stress testing process. An introduction to multivariate time series modeling paves the way to scenario analysis in order to assess a bank resilience against adverse macroeconomic conditions. Assets and liabilities are jointly studied to highlight the key issues that a risk manager needs to face. A multi-national bank prototype is used all over the book for diving into market, credit, and operational stress testing. Interest rate, liquidity and other major risks are also studied together with the former to outline how to implement a fully integrated risk management toolkit. Examples, business cases, and exercises worked in Matlab and R facilitate readers to develop their own models and methodologies. - Provides a rigorous statistical framework for modeling stress test in line with U.S. Federal Reserve FRB CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review), U.K. PRA (Prudential Regulatory Authority), EBA (European Baning Authorithy) and comply with Basel Accord requirements - Follows an integrated bottom-up approach central in the most advanced risk modelling practice - Provides numerous sample codes in Matlab and R
Staff conducted a survey of stress testing practices among selected national central banks and supervisory authorities. The online survey was undertaken in November 2011 as part of the preparatory work for the paper on ?Macrofinancial Stress Testing: Principles and Practices. The survey focused on stress testing for banks, which is more widespread and better established—and practices are therefore easier to compare across countries—but also included questions on stress testing for nonbank financial institutions.
This book uses perspectives of finance and banking to offer predictions on future financial crises, and how we can prepare for them.