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Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Niño, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.
Estuaries are highly dynamic systems subject to changes occurring over a spectrum of time scales ranging from very short periods (e. g. over a tidal cycle) to geologic time scales. The nature of an estuary reflects complex responses to many driving forces, each having a characteristic frequency (or frequencies) of change. For example, freshwater inflow to estuaries varies daily in response to short-term events such as storms, seasonally, and between years as a result of longer-term climatic variability. Other important components of weather, e. g. wind speed/ direction and daily insolation, also vary over time scales ranging from hours to years. Tidal amplitude changes continuously with dominant frequencies associated with the semi-diurnal cycle, the fortnightly neap-spring, and the semi-annual cycle. Temporal dynamics of these driving forces evoke responses in the form of changing (I) circulation patterns and mixing, (2) sediment composition and transport, (3) solute speciation and distribution, (4) composition and abundance of particulates, (5) biomass, species composition, and productivity of plant and animal communities, (6) rates of material exchange between the sediments, water column, and atmosphere, and (7) bioavailability of trace metals and other pollutants. The purpose of this book is to examine the temporal dynamics of these properties and processes in the San Francisco Bay estuary.