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An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep.
Solutions manual to accompany a text with comprehensive coverage of actuarial modeling techniques The Student Solutions Manual to Accompany Loss Models: From Data to Decisions covers solutions related to the companion text. The manual and text are designed for use by actuaries and those studying for the profession. Readers can learn modeling techniques used across actuarial science. Knowledge of the techniques is also beneficial for those who use loss data to build models for risk assessment.
An essential resource for constructing and analyzing advanced actuarial models Loss Models: Further Topics presents extended coverage of modeling through the use of tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. The book uses these methods to construct and evaluate actuarial models in the fields of insurance and business. Providing an advanced study of actuarial methods, the book features extended discussions of risk modeling and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk. Loss Models: Further Topics contains additional material to accompany the Fourth Edition of Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, such as: Extreme value distributions Coxian and related distributions Mixed Erlang distributions Computational and analytical methods for aggregate claim models Counting processes Compound distributions with time-dependent claim amounts Copula models Continuous time ruin models Interpolation and smoothing The book is an essential reference for practicing actuaries and actuarial researchers who want to go beyond the material required for actuarial qualification. Loss Models: Further Topics is also an excellent resource for graduate students in the actuarial field.
A comprehensive study in efficient multi-rate teletraffic loss models used for designing, performance analysis, and optimization of systems and networks Efficient Multirate Teletraffic Loss Models Beyond Erlang is an easy-to-read book filled with numerous efficient teletraffic loss models. Presented in three sections—Teletraffic Models of Random Input, Teletraffic Models of Quasi-Random Input, and Teletraffic Models of Batched Poisson Input—it covers everything that a professional experienced with optimization and dimensioning of telecom networks could ever need to know. This unique book provides a detailed explanation on how efficient multirate teletraffic loss models are extracted and applied, and guides readers through almost all network technologies and services. Starting from the basics, it steadily increases in difficulty to keep the book self-contained and to provide a better understanding to those who might be new to the subject. It includes detailed explanations of the complex teletraffic models—many of which were developed by the authors. Tutorial examples, several backed by supplementary software, are accompanied by intermediate results and figures. Additionally, end-of-chapter applications describe the applicability of the models to modern network technologies, updating the incorporated teletraffic models of commercial packages/tools. Uses the classic EMLM (Erlang Multirate Loss Model) as its base to present a comprehensive range of teletraffic models through detailed explanation and numerical examples Filled with the authors’ own original teletraffic models—making for a wholly unique learning experience Offers a clear, self-contained presentation with a beginning, middle, and end Starts with simple models, then moves to more complex models, before finishing with complicated ones Supplemented by an accompanying website with computer implementation of the most important models Directed primarily at telecommunication engineers, Efficient Multirate Teletraffic Loss Models Beyond Erlang is also useful for telecom operators or managers on the higher and average levels, as well a Ph.D. students, researchers, and modelers.
This manuscript sets out a process for estimating fatalities in collapsed buildings due to ground shaking in an earthquake. The aim of this research is to supplement current earthquake loss estimation with fatality rates (percentage of occupants killed) for use in models which are based on recent empirical information on deaths from earthquakes. This document specifically explores the lethality potential to occupants of collapsed structures. Whilst earthquake casualty modeling has admittedly suffered from a lack of post-earthquake collection of data and rigour in assessing these data, recent earthquakes such as 2008 Wenchuan (China) and 2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) have brought to light some important findings. Under the auspices of US Geological Survey’s PAGER, empirical fatality data related to collapses of buildings from significant earthquakes in the past 40 years have been thoroughly examined. Through detailed investigations of fatal building collapses and the volume reductions within these buildings, important clues related to the lethality potential of different failure mechanisms of global modern and older construction types were found. The gathered evidence forms the basis of the derivation of a set of fatality rates for use in loss models. The set of judgment-based rates are for 31 global building types. This significant advancement in casualty modeling, the resolutions and quality of available data, the important assumptions made, and the final derivation of fatality rates are discussed here. This document contributes to global efforts to develop a way of estimating probable earthquake fatalities very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The fatality rates proposed here can be incorporated directly into earthquake loss estimation models where fatalities are derived from collapses of different types of buildings.
A modern practical guide to building and using actuarial models. Loss Models: From Data to Decisions is organized around the principle that actuaries build models in order to analyze risks and make decisions about managing the risks based on conclusions drawn from the analysis. In practice, one begins with data and ends with a business decision. The book flows logically from this principle. It begins with a framework for model building and a description of frequency and severity loss data typically available to actuaries. Parametric models are emphasized throughout. The frequency and severity models are used in building aggregate loss models, in credibility-based pricing models, and in loss analysis over multiple time periods. Designed as both an educational text as well as a professional reference, Loss Models: Assumes little prior knowledge of insurance systems Features many fascinating examples taken from insurance files Contains a major instructive case study continued through each chapter Covers the classical areas of risk theory and loss distributions Gives a practical but rigorous treatment of modern credibility theory Uses standard statistical concepts, methods, and notation Provides modern computational algorithms for implementing methods Includes free companion software available from an FTP site Deals with many topics on CAS 4B and SOA 151 and 152 actuarial exams Includes many exercises based on past CAS and SOA exams.
Devoted to the problem of fitting parametric probability distributions to data, this treatment uniquely unifies loss modeling in one book. Data sets used are related to the insurance industry, but can be applied to other distributions. Emphasis is on the distribution of single losses related to claims made against various types of insurance policies. Includes five sets of insurance data as examples.
Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition continues to supply actuaries with a practical approach to the key concepts and techniques needed on the job. With updated material and extensive examples, the book successfully provides the essential methods for using available data to construct models for the frequency and severity of future adverse outcomes. The book continues to equip readers with the tools needed for the construction and analysis of mathematical models that describe the process by which funds flow into and out of an insurance system. Focusing on the loss process, the authors explore key quantitative techniques including random variables, basic distributional quantities, and the recursive method, and discuss techniques for classifying and creating distributions. Parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Throughout the book, numerous examples showcase the real-world applications of the presented concepts, with an emphasis on calculations and spreadsheet implementation. Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition is an indispensable resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS examinations. The book is also a valuable reference for professional actuaries, actuarial students, and anyone who works with loss and risk models.
Actuarial loss models are statistical models used by insurance companies to estimate the frequency and severity of future losses, set premiums, and reserve funds to cover potential claims. Actuarial loss models are a subject in actuarial mathematics that focus on the pricing and reserving for short-term coverages. This is a concise textbook written for undergraduate students majoring in actuarial science who wish to learn the basics of actuarial loss models. This book can be used as a textbook for a one-semester course on actuarial loss models. The prerequisite for this book is a first course on calculus. The reader is supposed to be familiar with differentiation and integration. This book covers part of the learning outcomes of the Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics (FAM) exam and the Advanced Short-Term Actuarial Mathematics (ASTAM) exam administered by the Society of Actuaries. It can be used by actuarial students and practitioners who prepare for the aforementioned actuarial exams. Key Features: Review core concepts in probability theory. Cover important topics in actuarial loss models. Include worked examples. Provide both theoretical and numerical exercises. Include solutions of selected exercises.