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Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration), language: English, abstract: Assurance companies face two main risk factors in the process of pricing annuity products namely the interest risk and the longevity risk. There are numerous products and possibilities for the insurers to hedge their interest risk using interest derivatives and long bonds. Hedging products against the longevity risk is uncommon but insurers have to take it into account when they are pricing their annuity products. There are two types of longevity risks. On the one hand the idiosyncratic longevity risk and on the other hand the systematic longevity risk. With regards to the idiosyncratic longevity risk, individuals are faced with the issue that they need to invest in assets for their retirement in spite of an uncertain span of lifetime and thus an uncertain investment horizon. Pricing of life annuities could be done according to corresponding mortality tables. If the clients of an insurer die on average according to mortality rates provided by such tables, the revenues of the insurer should be sufficient to ensure the payments for the clients who are still alive. The issue out of a pension fund perspective is that longevity has been improving over time and clients could live longer than anticipated. These improvements occurred in an unpredictable way, especially at higher ages according to Cairns et al. (2006). Insurers therefore made false calculations of the insurance premium and suffered losses due to pensioners living longer than anticipated. The systematic longevity risk is based on the stochastic variation of mortality. The future development of life expectancy will be highly unpredictable due to medical improvements or discoveries in genetic research. For that reason insurers need stochastic models to quantify the systematic mortality changes over time and to make a prediction about future mortality in order to prevent losses caused by longevity risk. This paper will firstly discuss the literature regarding the Lee and Carter one factor model and the relevance of longevity risk for annuity pricing. Second this paper aims to estimate the stochastic two-factor model by Cairns, Blake and Dowd (2006) (CBD) for U.S. males from 1933 to 2010 by running a simulation to predict average mortality for the year 2030. In the further course will this stated prediction be used to price an annuity product followed by a brief conclusion and summary of results.
Dealing with all aspects of risk management that have undergone significant innovation in recent years, this book aims at being a reference work in its field. Different to other books on the topic, it addresses the challenges and opportunities facing the different risk management types in banks, insurance companies, and the corporate sector. Due to the rising volatility in the financial markets as well as political and operational risks affecting the business sector in general, capital adequacy rules are equally important for non-financial companies. For the banking sector, the book emphasizes the modifications implied by the Basel II proposal. The volume has been written for academics as well as practitioners, in particular finance specialists. It is unique in bringing together such a wide array of experts and correspondingly offers a complete coverage of recent developments in risk management.
Mortality improvements, uncertainty in future mortality trends and the relevant impact on life annuities and pension plans constitute important topics in the field of actuarial mathematics and life insurance techniques. In particular, actuarial calculations concerning pensions, life annuities and other living benefits (provided, for example, by long-term care insurance products and whole life sickness covers) are based on survival probabilities which necessarily extend over a long time horizon. In order to avoid underestimation of the related liabilities, the insurance company (or the pension plan) must adopt an appropriate forecast of future mortality. Great attention is currently being devoted to the management of life annuity portfolios, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view, because of the growing importance of annuity benefits paid by private pension schemes. In particular, the progressive shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes has increased the interest in life annuities with a guaranteed annual amount. This book provides a comprehensive and detailed description of methods for projecting mortality, and an extensive introduction to some important issues concerning longevity risk in the area of life annuities and pension benefits. It relies on research work carried out by the authors, as well as on a wide teaching experience and in CPD (Continuing Professional Development) initiatives. The following topics are dealt with: life annuities in the framework of post-retirement income strategies; the basic mortality model; recent mortality trends that have been experienced; general features of projection models; discussion of stochastic projection models, with numerical illustrations; measuring and managing longevity risk.
This edition looks at pension reform during the crisis and beyond, the design of automatic adjustment mechanisms, reversals of systemic pension reforms in Central and Eastern Europe, coverage of private pension systems and guarantees indefined contribution pension systems.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Annuity insurance products help protect retirees against outliving their incomes. Dramatic advances in life expectancy mean that today's retirees must plan on living into their eighties, their nineties, and even beyond. Longer life expectancies are the symbol of a prosperous society, but this progress also means that some retirees will need to plan conservatively and cut back substantially on their living standards or risk living so long that they exhaust their resources. This book examines the role that life annuities can play in helping people protect themselves against such outcomes. A life annuity is an insurance product that pays out a periodic amount for as long as the annuitant is alive, in exchange for a premium. The book begins with a history of life annuity markets during the twentieth century in the United States and elsewhere. It then explores recent trends in annuity pricing and money's worth, as well as the economic value generated for purchasers of these products. The book explains the potential importance of inflation-protected annuities and stock-market-linked variable annuities in providing more complete retirement security. The concluding chapters examine life annuities in various institutional settings and the tax treatment of annuity products.
While not attempting to train readers as professional economists, this book aims to provide a secure grounding in the theory and practice of economics insofar as it deals with pension matters. From reading this book, the user will understand: * The key types of pension scheme * The role of pensions in maximizing individual lifetime welfare * The role of pensions in individual savings and retirement decisions * The role and consequences of the pension plan from the company's viewpoint * The role of pensions in promoting aggregate savings * The role of pensions and retirement in overlapping generations models * The economics of ageing and intergenerational accounting * The social welfare implications of pensions * The lessons of behavioural economics for pensions
In the past several decades, pension plans have become one of the most significant institutional influences on labor and financial markets in the U.S. In an effort to understand the economic effects of this growth, the National Bureau of Economic Research embarked on a major research project in 1980. Issues in Pension Economics, the third in a series of four projected volumes to result from thsi study, covers a broad range of pension issues and utilizes new and richer data sources than have been previously available. The papers in this volume cover such issues as the interaction of pension-funding decisions and corporate finances; the role of pensions in providing adequate and secure retirement income, including the integration of pension plans with social security and significant drops in the U.S. saving rate; and the incentive effects of pension plans on labor market behavior and the implications of plans on labor market behavior and the implications of plans for different demographic groups. Issues in Pension Economics offers important empirical studies and makes valuable theoretical contributions to current thinking in an area that will most likely continue to be a source of controversy and debate for some time to come. The volume should prove useful to academics and policymakers, as well as to members of the business and labor communities.
This book examines the major economic challenges associated with the sustainability of public pensions, specifically demographic change, labor-market relations, and risk sharing. The issue of public pensions occupies the political and economic agendas of many major governments in the world. International organizations such as the World Bank and the OECD warn that the economic changes driven by an aging society negatively affects the sustainability of pension systems. This book analyzes different global public pension systems to offer policies, methods and tools for sustainable public pensions. Real case studies from France, Sweden, Latin America, Algeria, USA and Mexico are featured.
Many people need help planning for retirement, saving, investing, and decumulating their assets, yet financial advice is often complex, potentially conflicted, and expensive. The advent of computerized financial advice offers huge promise to make accessible a more coherent approach to financial management, one that takes into account not only clients' financial assets but also human capital, home values, and retirement pensions. Robo-advisors, or automated on-line services that use computer algorithms to provide financial advice and manage customers' investment portfolios, have the potential to transform retirement systems and peoples' approach to retirement planning. This volume offers cutting-edge research and recommendations regarding the impact of financial technology, or FinTech, to disrupt retirement planning and retirement system design.