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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
'A landmark work on perhaps the essential question of our time' - David Wallace-Wells, author of The Uninhabitable Earth In this ground-breaking book, environmental journalist, Peter Schwartzstein, takes the reader on the first on-the-ground exploration of climate change's contribution to global conflict. From the ravaged villages of Iraq, where ISIS has used drought as a recruiting tool and weapon of terror, to the pirate-ridden waters of Bangladesh - and drawing on more than a decade of reporting from dozens of countries - Schwartzstein writes about the unexpected ways in which climate change is feeding global unrest and conflict. Through the stories of the soldiers, farmers, spies and others affected around the world, he makes sense of a form of conflict that remains poorly understood, even as it devastates the lives of so many millions of people. While researching this book, Schwartzstein was chased by kidnappers, detained by police and told, in no uncertain terms, that he was no longer welcome in certain countries. Yet, as he recounts, these personal brushes with violence are simply a hint of the conflict simmering in our warming world. As Schwartztein's unparalleled reporting shows, there's nothing inevitable about climate violence. In fact, as he sets out, the same stresses that are pitching people against one another can even help bring them back together.
"The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region."
The report Informality and Structural Transformation in the Middle east and North Africa outlines a framework for assessing the impact of economic and social policies on informality. The framework was developed jointly by the ILO, OECD and UNDP, and is thought as a hands-on instrument, allowing policy makers to foresee early on in the policymaking cycles the effects diverse economic and social policies could have on the informal economy.
The 2021 edition of the Outlook addresses reallocation of resources to digitalisation in response to COVID-19, with special focuses on health, education and Industry 4.0. During the COVID-19 crisis, digitalisation has proved critical to ensuring the continuity of essential services.
Political stability is the main factor affecting the economic performance of a country and political stability is positively associated with sustainable economic development. As concepts such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, which express political stability, come to the fore, the economic attractiveness of countries increases. However, economic problems arise in the opposite situation where unemployment rates rise, income distribution is unfair, the public sector's budget deficit increases, and the level of indebtedness is unsustainable. The problems experienced in Iraq, especially in the post-2003 period, also developed within this vicious circle. The war, conflicts, riots, and prolonged terrorist incidents before and after 2003 caused political instability, and this situation led to political corruption, bribery, and rent problems, and ultimately presented great challenges in the country's economy. As the steps to be taken in fighting against the insufficient administrative capabilities in Iraq such as corruption have failed in practice, this situation has been accompanied by many structural problems. This is so much so that these administrative malpractices have weakened the socio-economic and institutional structure on which economic development is based, caused domestic and foreign investors to leave the country, limited economic growth, increased income inequality and poverty, reduced the quality of public infrastructure facilities, reduced tax revenues from imports and companies and effectuated deterioration of the structure of public expenditures. In the corruption perception index (CPI) published since 1995, Iraq has been included in the analysis after 2003 and ranked at the bottom of the list every year. Embezzlement, money laundering, oil smuggling, and bureaucratic bribery that have led the country to the bottom of these rankings, combined with the prolonged destructive conflict environment disrupted the economy, legal and political order. In Iraq, as the economic problems, caused by political instability, such as corruption, income inequality, unemployment, and poverty were perceived to become permanent, public demonstrations erupted in October 2019 across the country. As the protests intensified, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned, and efforts were initiated to establish a new government. In this context, although the former communications minister Mohammad Tawfiq Allawi was appointed in February to form a government, he announced his resignation in March 2020 as he could not gather enough support. After Allawi, the Iraqi President Barham Salih appointed former Najaf Governor Adnan al-Zurfi to form the government on March 17. However, Zurfi announced his resignation as he also failed to form a government and then he was replaced by al-Kadhimi, who was also supported by Shiite parties, Sunni and Kurdish groups. In this process, the ongoing protests were also stopped with the rapid spread of the epidemic in the country and neighboring Iran. In this period when the country was driven into more uncertainty, under the growing economic crisis the task of forming a government was given to the director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service Mustafa al-Kadhimi, and Kadhimi received the vote of confidence of the Iraqi parliament to serve as Iraq’s new prime minister. The new administration in Iraq has promised to take steps to resolve fundamental socio-economic and political problems such as non-accountability, nepotism, widespread corruption, and the ensuing economic injustice, which were the root causes of the uprisings. In this context, the published studies such as the final report of “the Emergency Cell for Financial Reform” pointed out the aforementioned basic problems and put forward the policies to be implemented to solve them. Moreover, Kadhimi made his own appointments in the state bureaucracy, including economic institutions. Among these appointments the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, the head of the Iraq Securities Commission and lastly the head of the Integrity Commission were related to the economy. However, the ongoing political and security problems accompanied by economic instability have made the Iraqi economy very fragile. The country's economy, which its budget and expenditures are heavily dependent on oil due to its natural resource-dependent structure, has entered a deep crisis with the global epidemic and low oil prices. Realizing that it is not possible to save the country's fragile economy and overcome its structural problems in the current global crisis, the Iraqi government has made an effort to formulate long-term policies despite social reservations. However, in this environment where there is no economic diversity and the central authority is weak, the low price of oil, which is the most important source of income, appears as the biggest obstacle to the realization of the reforms. Therefore, reducing the fragility of the economy by implementing emergency action plans and realizing development projects has been determined as the primary goal for the new government in Iraq. In order to strengthen the Iraqi economy, first of all, the necessary infrastructure investments should be taken immediately. Based on this, the added values and supports that Turkey, an important neighbor, and ally from the point of view of Iraq, can provide to the people and economy of the country come to the fore. The agreements signed between the Iraqi government and Turkey have shown that the Iraqi government will adopt policies in this direction. The policies to be developed in this direction will ensure that the two countries will experience significant positive developments in many areas, from energy security to reducing regional risks, together with common economic gains.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of 33 active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 March 2021 to 30 April 2022. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of national, regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across the world, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks. This edition includes a special feature on climate security given the increasingly urgent need to understand the complex interlinkages between climate change, climate vulnerability and conflict amid accelerating global warming. Reflecting the growing importance of geopolitical factors in the current global conflict landscape, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 features the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed conflicts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics and key statistics, as well as the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.
The second edition of The Political Economy of Iraq is as comprehensive and accessible as the first with updated data and analysis. Frank R. Gunter discusses in detail how the convergence of the ISIS insurgency, collapse in oil prices, and massive youth unemployment produced a serious political crisis in 2020. This work ends with a discussion of key policy decisions that will determine Iraq’s future. This volume will be a valuable resource for anyone with a professional, business, or academic interest in the post-2003 political economy of Iraq.
Health at a Glance provides a comprehensive set of indicators on population health and health system performance across OECD members and key emerging economies. This edition has a special focus on the health impact of COVID-19 in OECD countries, including deaths and illness caused by the virus, adverse effects on access and quality of care, and the growing burden of mental ill-health.