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We examine the proposition that investor attention affects the optimality of financial decisions. Using a novel dataset on the sociodemographic characteristics of visitors to mutual fund websites, we link the characteristics of investors to the characteristics of mutual funds that capture their attention. We report empirical evidence that the characteristics of individuals are systematically associated with fund characteristics that predict performance. Mutual funds with a higher fraction of female, older, and low-income visitors have a higher probability of underperforming. We also find that differences in attention allocation decisions across visitor groups can be explained by differences in their sensitivity to past performance and fund fees. Finally, there is limited evidence that fund marketing can explain why some groups of visitors pay attention to funds that can be predicted to underperform. In sum, we provide evidence that attention may explain, at least partially, the suboptimal financial decisions of some investors.
WINNER, Business: Personal Finance/Investing, 2015 USA Best Book Awards FINALIST, Business: Reference, 2015 USA Best Book Awards Investor Behavior provides readers with a comprehensive understanding and the latest research in the area of behavioral finance and investor decision making. Blending contributions from noted academics and experienced practitioners, this 30-chapter book will provide investment professionals with insights on how to understand and manage client behavior; a framework for interpreting financial market activity; and an in-depth understanding of this important new field of investment research. The book should also be of interest to academics, investors, and students. The book will cover the major principles of investor psychology, including heuristics, bounded rationality, regret theory, mental accounting, framing, prospect theory, and loss aversion. Specific sections of the book will delve into the role of personality traits, financial therapy, retirement planning, financial coaching, and emotions in investment decisions. Other topics covered include risk perception and tolerance, asset allocation decisions under inertia and inattention bias; evidenced based financial planning, motivation and satisfaction, behavioral investment management, and neurofinance. Contributions will delve into the behavioral underpinnings of various trading and investment topics including trader psychology, stock momentum, earnings surprises, and anomalies. The final chapters of the book examine new research on socially responsible investing, mutual funds, and real estate investing from a behavioral perspective. Empirical evidence and current literature about each type of investment issue are featured. Cited research studies are presented in a straightforward manner focusing on the comprehension of study findings, rather than on the details of mathematical frameworks.
Are stocks' varying sensitivies to changing investor attention and sentiment priced? Employing internet search-based proxies for both, I find novel results that are consistent with theory. Stocks that co-vary negatively with increased investor attention to the stock market outperform in the following months in a behavior consistent with a risk premium. The pricing of co-variation with investor sentiment depends on aggregate mispricing (Baker-Wurgler index), behaving like a risk premium when mispricing is low and like an anomaly when mispricing is high. Sensitivity to both sentiment and attention is strongly related to idiosyncratic volatility and limits to arbitrage: High absolute attention/sentiment loadings are associated with higher volatility, smaller size and other limits to arbitrage. However, the priced attention and sentiment components are clearly distinct from the idiosyncratic risk puzzle and stay significant when controlling for relevant pricing factors and company characteristics. Investor attention is both very robust and highly powerful in pricing a broad variety of test assets. On the other hand, investor sentiment's effect on performance is strongly related to return reversal/momentum and does not add much information on its own.
Prior literature has documented that investor attention and constraints on that attention are associated with the pricing of stocks. We introduce the concept of attention comovement, which is the extent to which investor attention for a firm is explained by attention paid to the firm's industry and the market in general. We find that attention comovement is non-trivial for the average firm and is related to firm characteristics, such as size and visibility. We also find that the comovement of investor attention has market consequences, in that it is positively associated with excess stock return comovement. Finally, we show that a firm's earnings announcement contributes to the transfer of attention from one firm to its peer firms. Our results provide insights about the information flows underlying return comovement and aid in understanding the micro- and macro-nature of investor attention.
Don Hinman is a long time business owner who found stock market investing frustrating. He considered himself to be a value investor, but could never find a way to determine value that would consistently deliver profits. Today there is so much information instead of making decision making easier, it often confuses an investor. He set out to learn for himself the characteristics of a stock that would deliver profits to his stock portfolio year after year. He believed knowing what is relevant and what is not is essential when searching for stocks. Success in the stock market is dependent upon finding high value stocks with low prices. Many will say it is hard for non-professional investor to do this. Actually once an investor knows the characteristics of a good stock the search for high value stocks is easy to do. Don comes to some surprising conclusions about fiscal and monetary policy.
In recent decades, the financial markets have experienced various crises, shocks and disruptive events, driving high levels of volatility. This volatility is too strong to be fully justified simply by changes in fundamentals. This volume discusses these highly relevant issues with special focus on asset pricing and behavioral finance. Financial price assets of the 2020s appear to be driven by various attractors in addition to fundamentals, and there is no doubt that investor emotions, market sentiment, the news, and external factors such as uncertainty all play a key role. This has been clearly observed in recent years, especially during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has changed the common perception of the way financial markets work.
Motivated by psychological evidence that attention is a scarce cognitive resource, we model investors' attention allocation in learning and study the effects of this on asset-price dynamics. We show that limited investor attention leads to category-learning behavior, i.e., investors tend to process more market and sector-wide information than firm-specific information. This endogenous structure of information, when combined with investor overconfidence, generates important features observed in return comovement that are otherwise difficult to explain with standard rational expectations models. Our model also demonstrates new cross-sectional implications for return predictability.
Retail investors pay over twice as much attention to local companies than non-local ones, based on Google searches. News volume and volatility amplify this attention gap. Attention appears causally related to perceived proximity: first, acquisition by a nonlocal company is associated with less attention by locals, and more by nonlocals close to the acquirer; second, COVID-19 travel restrictions correlate with a drop in relative attention to nonlocal companies, especially in locations with fewer flights after the outbreak. Finally, local attention predicts volatility, bid-ask spreads and nonlocal attention, not vice versa. These findings are consistent with local investors having an information-processing advantage.