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In 2016, economic globalization suffered a severe crisis after over half a century of smooth development, and deglobalization was running mountains high. Not only did it trigger domestic political discord in major countries like the United States, Britain, France and Germany, but also led to international economic and political disputes among Western countries, intensifying strategic competition between major powers. With the arrival of 2017, through the perilous waves of deglobalization and the consequent international political upheavals, we find that the post Cold War era that we were familiarized with, is coming to a rapid end, ushering in a new international political era, full of uncertainties. This annual book presents Chinese scholars' views, opinions and predictions on global political and security issues, as well as China's strategic choice. It covers a wide range of important issues concerning international security, ranging from the assessment of Sino-US relations, Russian-American relations, the counter terrorism situation in the Middle East, the political situation in Taiwan and cross-Strait relations, Brexit and the refugee problem, and the strategic situation in the South China Sea, to the judgment of the strategic posture in countries and regions like Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. Also covered are the analysis of the strategic posture in cyber space, outer space (as well as their governance), and discussion on China's international strategic choice in the wave of deglobalization.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
This volume brings together international experts to provide fresh perspectives on geopolitical concerns in the South China Sea. The book considers the interests and security strategies of each of the nations with a claim to ownership and jurisdiction in the Sea. Examining contexts including the region’s natural resources and China’s behaviour, the book also assesses the motivations and approaches of other states in Asia and further afield. This is an accessible, even-handed and comprehensive examination of current and future rivalries and challenges in one of the most strategically important and militarized maritime regions of the world.
The international strategic relations have been undergoing great turbulence, readjustment and reformation since the financial crisis in 2008. This round of transition is mainly driven by economic competition instead of wars. International competition, crises and collisions will ebb and flow and happen frequently in the foreseeable future, but will not break through the international political framework based on cooperation. However, these crises, collisions and even wars will have disturbing effects on the political framework for international cooperation, and will change and distort the patterns of international cooperation. This annual publication provides Chinese scholars' views, opinions and predictions on global political and security issues, and China's strategic choices. It covers almost all the significant issues in the international security arena. It evaluates the strategic influence of regional issues such as the Ukraine crisis, the crisis in the Middle East, the South China Sea disputes and the US-Asia-Europe strategic balance. It analyzes strategic trends of international organizations like the BRICS, the SCO, and the ASEAN. It studies strategic development of countries and regions like Japan, India, the Korean Peninsula, Africa, Taiwan and cross-Strait relations. It researches the strategic situations in the cyber space and the outer space, and sums up the reform and development of China's national security system.
As the world's most dynamic region, Asia embodies explosive economic growth, diverse political systems, vibrant societies, modernizing militaries, cutting-edge technologies, rich cultural traditions amid globalization, and strategic competition among major powers. As a result, international relations in Asia are evolving rapidly. In this fully updated and expanded volume, leading scholars from Asia, Europe, and North America offer the most current and definitive analysis available of Asia's regional relationships. They set developments in Asia in theoretical context, assess the role of leading external and regional powers, and consider the importance of subregional actors and linkages. Combining interpretive richness and factual depth, their essays provide an authoritative and stimulating overview. Students of contemporary Asian affairs—new to the field and old hands alike—will find this book an invaluable read. Contributions by: Amitav Acharya, Sebastian Bersick, Nayan Chanda, Ralph A. Cossa, Michael Green, Samuel S. Kim, Edward J. Lincoln, Martha Brill Olcott, T.V. Paul, Phillip C. Saunders, David Shambaugh, Sheldon W. Simon, Scott Snyder, Robert Sutter, Hugh White, and Michael Yahuda
"Political Warfare provides a well-researched and wide-ranging overview of the nature of the People's Republic of China (PRC) threat and the political warfare strategies, doctrines, and operational practices used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The author offers detailed and illuminating case studies of PRC political warfare operations designed to undermine Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, and Taiwan, a close friend"--
In late 2015, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) initiated reforms that have brought dramatic changes to its structure, model of warfighting, and organizational culture, including the creation of a Strategic Support Force (SSF) that centralizes most PLA space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare capabilities. The reforms come at an inflection point as the PLA seeks to pivot from land-based territorial defense to extended power projection to protect Chinese interests in the "strategic frontiers" of space, cyberspace, and the far seas. Understanding the new strategic roles of the SSF is essential to understanding how the PLA plans to fight and win informationized wars and how it will conduct information operations.
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
China's continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of China's emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are China's most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten America's core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.
How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated security environment with a wide range of internal and external threats. Rapidly expanding international interests are creating demands for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct new missions ranging from protecting Chinese shipping from Somali pirates to evacuating citizens from Libya. The most recent Chinese defense white paper states that the armed forces must "make serious preparations to cope with the most complex and difficult scenarios . . . so as to ensure proper responses . . . at any time and under any circumstances." Based on a conference co-sponsored by Taiwan's Council of Advanced Policy Studies, RAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and National Defense University, The People's Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China brings together leading experts from the United States and Taiwan to examine how the PLA prepares for a range of domestic, border, and maritime...