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We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.
Zusammenfassung: This is an open access book. Hanoi University of Science and Technology - School of Economics and Management, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, University of Economics and Business - Vietnam National University, Hanoi, National Economics University - Faculty of Business and Management, The University of Danang - University of Economics, Vietnam National University - International School, Foreign Trade University, University of Hertfordshire (UK), AVSE Global (France) and PPM School of Management (Indonesia) will organize The 11th International Conference on Emerging Challenges: Smart Business and Digital Economy, Vietnam on November 3-4, 2023. We would like to invite you to be a part of the ICECH2023 and submit your research papers for presentation consideration. The aim of ICECH2023 is to provide a forum for academics and professionals to share research findings, experiences and knowledge for adaptation and business strategy in a post-Covid as well as various uncertainties and complexities in the world in the Asia-Pacific region. We welcome the submissions in Economics, Business, Innovation Management, and Business Law
This proceedings volume contains papers accepted by the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies (CONF-BPS 2023), which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editorial team of the conference. This volume presents the latest research achievements, inspirations, and applications in applied economy, finance, enterprise management, public administration, and policy studies. CONF-BPS 2023 was a hybrid conference that includes several workshops (offline and online) around the world in Cardiff (Jan, 2023), London(Feb, 2023) and Sydney (Feb, 2023). Prof. Canh Thien Dang from King's College London, Prof. Arman Eshraghi from Cardiff Business School, and Prof. Kristle Romero Cortés from UNSW Business School have chaired those offline workshop.
House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Real Estate Investment: A Strategic Approach provides a unique introduction to both the theory and practice of real estate investing, and examines the international real estate investment industry as it reacts to the global financial crisis. Andrew Baum outlines the market and the players who dominate it; the investment process; the vehicles available for investment; and a suggested approach to global portfolio construction. The book contains many useful features for students including discussion questions, a full further reading list and case studies drawing on international examples from the UK, continental Europe, the USA and Asia. Ideal for undergraduate and postgraduate students on all real estate and property courses and related business studies and finance courses, Real Estate Investment is designed to provide a foundation for the next generation of investment managers, advisers and analysts. Further resources for lecturers and students are available at: www.routledge.com/cw/baum