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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
This book addresses the increased fragmentation and internationalization of production. It explores how concurrent business transformations in manufacturing and marketing impact global and developing economies, and how supply chain initiatives and information sharing impact overall organizational performance. It further connects marketing and advertising as an important link between organizations and its partners; education as a bridge between developing and developed world economies; and growth as a long-term objective of increasing integration at the regional and global level. Through a series of case studies, scholars across the US and France contribute chapters on the manufacturing, marketing, and internationalization of luxury fashion brands, music advertising, the growth of Amazon, and the business landscapes in India, China, Africa, and North Korea. The book provides academic libraries, international business scholars, graduate students, and policy makers with insights and opportunities that enable firms to achieve a competitive advantage in the marketplace.
Global Production and Trade in East Asia focuses on the profound change that the traditional paradigm of production and international trade has undergone in the last two decades or so as a result of worldwide trade and investment liberalization. This ongoing transformation has been both aided and stimulated by advances in telecommunications, transportation, and information management. The liberalization of trade and investment on the one hand and advances in communications technology on the other have further promoted global production networks in which vertical stages of final goods are fragmented across countries. International fragmentation of production, which enables international division of labor not only in final products but also in vertically related components, is more evident than ever before. The book documents the process of international production fragmentation and trade in East Asian economies, studies the mechanics of the process, explores the theory behind the phenomenon, and identifies important policy implications. It focuses on production fragmentation and trade in East Asia because this is the part of the world where the phenomenon is most visible. With contribution by well-known international economics scholars from North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific, the book distinguishes itself with high global quality and rich regional content. It achieves a fine balance between theory, policy, and empirical work. This book will interest scholars of international trade, foreign investment and international business, regional specialists in East Asian economies, policymakers and advisors in international economic relations, and anyone else who follows important economic issues of globalization.
Using state-of-the-art econometric tools, this book examines the implications of international fragmentation of production for the performance of the Japanese manufacturing industry.The impact of the ongoing process of international fragmentation of production and outsourcing has become a highly contentious issue in developed economies such as the US and Japan. Concerns about deindustrialisation and large-scale job losses - 'the export of jobs' have generated a political backlash against multinationals and globalisation. Using detailed data from Japanese multinationals this book rigorously analyses the Japanese experience and compares and contrasts it with the experience of US manufacturing. The study finds no empirical evidence that expansion of multinational activities in foreign countries produces job losses in the home country. Indeed, when demand induced indirectemployment effects are taken into account the increased profitability of Japanese firms is likely to have increased overall employment in Japan. However, the shift of labour intensive activities to low wage economies associated with the international fragmentation of production generates adjustment pressures and a structural shift in favour of skilled workers in Japanese manufacturing.
This book examines how global value chains have evolved and the policy challenges they have created.
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
While international trade in goods and services has long been expanding, the speed and scope of recent changes have given rise to the term ¿globalization.¿ Among the most pressing policy questions in the United States and other advanced economies are those concerning the impact of globalization: Has globalization fostered productivity growth and well-being in advanced economies? Or have the forces of globalization weakened key national industries, resulted in widespread worker dislocation and wage stagnation, and worsened inequality? Understanding the impacts of globalization is critical to fashioning appropriate policies in a rapidly changing world. But understanding its impacts requires good data, and national statistical systems were not designed to measure many of the transactions occurring in today¿s global economy. The chapters in this volume and its companion, Measuring Global­ization: Biases to Price, Output, and Productivity Statistics from Trade, identify biases and gaps in national statistics, examine the magnitude of the problems they pose, and propose solutions to address significant biases and fill key data gaps. The chapters originally were presented as papers at a research conference in 2013 funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and their authors include researchers from academic insti­tutions and statistics agencies in the United States and other countries.
Ronald Jones suggests how the basic core of real trade theory can be modified to take into account the increased international mobility of inputs and productive factors. As trade liberalization and the fragmentation of production processes promote greater international exchange of inputs, economists must adjust their thinking on trade issues. Transport costs have plummeted, and the difficulties of communicating between locales half a world apart have practically vanished. In this book Ronald Jones suggests how the basic core of real trade theory can be modified to take into account the increased international mobility of inputs and productive factors. He emphasizes the role of country "hinterlands" and how it is related to agglomeration effects in determining the location of economic activity. After discussing the positive aspects of enhanced mobility for output patterns and market prices, Jones evaluates the significance of globalization for governmental trade policies and public attitudes about regional alliances.
An economic analysis of de-industrialization that considers the ongoing transformation of the industrial economies and the consequences for economic policy.