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This report--prepared For The ECU Institute by a group of eight economists from universities, private financial institutions, central banks and international institutions, all participating in a strictly private capacity--is an effort to Understand The factors that determine the international use of currencies, The present use of the world's major currencies, And The probable implications For The International Monetary System of the setting up in Europe of an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) having a single currency (the ECU). The book shows that the EMU will greatly modify the design of the International Monetary System. By encouraging the development of a second key international currency that may challenge the dollar, it may transform the current system to a bipolar regime. By introducing a new, big player into the system, it may also increase the interest of the main participants in international coordination.
A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. In fact, they show that multiple international and reserve currencies have coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance before 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s postwar dominance. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, including how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.
Currency Competition and Foreign Exchange Markets by Philipp Hartmann of the European Central Bank is a major theoretical and empirical study of international currencies, which focuses on the role which the Euro will play in the international monetary and financial system along with the US dollar and the Japanese yen. In contrast to much of the existing literature which approaches the subject from a macroeconomic perspective, Philipp Hartmann develops a theoretical model which uses game theory, time series and panel econometrics, and links financial markets analysis with transaction cost economics. The results of Currency Competition and Foreign Exchange Markets are presented with reference to political, historical and institutional considerations, and provide accessible answers to policy-makers, business people and scholars worldwide. The sections on Spread Estimation and Multiple Vehicles with Inter-Dealer Price and Entry Competition will be of particular use for finance professionals.
For half a century, the United States has garnered substantial political and economic benefits as a result of the dollar's de facto role as a global currency. In recent years, however, the dollar's preponderant position in world markets has come under challenge. The dollar has been more volatile than ever against foreign currencies, and various nations have switched to non-dollar instruments in their transactions. China and the Arab Gulf states continue to hold massive amounts of U.S. government obligations, in effect subsidizing U.S. current account deficits, and those holdings are a point of potential vulnerability for American policy. What is the future of the U.S. dollar as an international currency? Will predictions of its demise end up just as inaccurate as those that have accompanied major international financial crises since the early 1970s? Analysts disagree, often profoundly, in their answers to these questions. In The Future of the Dollar, leading scholars of dollar's international role bring multidisciplinary perspectives and a range of contrasting predictions to the question of the dollar's future. This timely book provides readers with a clear sense of why such disagreements exist and it outlines a variety of future scenarios and the possible political implications for the United States and the world.
Can the euro challenge the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as a global currency? From the time Europe’s joint money was born, many have predicted that it would soon achieve parity with the dollar or possibly even surpass it. In reality, however, the euro has remained firmly planted in the dollar’s shadow. The essays collected in this volume explain why. Because of America’s external deficits and looming foreign debt, the dollar can never be as dominant as it once was. But Europe’s money is unable to mount an effective challenge. The euro suffers from a number of critical structural deficiencies, including an anti-growth bias that is built into the institutions of the monetary union and an ambiguous governance structure that sows doubts among prospective users. As recent events have demonstrated, members of the euro zone remain vulnerable to financial crisis. Moreover, lacking a single voice, the bloc continues to punch below its weight in monetary diplomacy. The world seems headed toward a leaderless monetary order, with several currencies in contention but none clearly dominant. This collection distils the views of one of the world’s leading scholars in global currency, and will be of considerable interest to students and scholars of international finance and international political economy.
John Pinder and Simon Usherwood explain the EU in plain readable English. They show how and why it has developed, how the institutions work, and what it does - from the single market to the euro, and from agriculture to the environment.
The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.
Current issues in macroeconomics.