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This paper introduces a quasi-natural experimental framework into trade policy evaluation and reassesses China's trade liberalization through the survival of export products. We use propensity score matching and China's dual trade system to design a quasi-natural experiment based on Chinese industrial enterprises, customs import and export, and tariff data over the period of 2000-2006; we then use survival analysis to study the impacts of China's trade liberalization on the export duration of manufacturing firms' products. We find that the substantial reduction in import tariffs after China's accession to the World Trade Organization enhances the export duration of firm products, indicating that trade liberalization ameliorates the survival of export products. The promotion effects of tariff reduction on export duration are obviously stronger for core products than for noncore products.
The literature on trade liberalization has recently shifted its attention from trade liberalization in imported final goods to studying the effects of trade liberalization in imported intermediate inputs. This emphasis fits very well the trade liberalization experience of China following its accession to the WTO in 2001. We build a multi-sector heterogenous-firm model with trade in both intermediate goods and final goods, and we ask: How do final-goods producers respond to trade liberalization in imported inputs? Do they respond differently across sectors? How do firms respond differently to trade liberalization in imported-outputs instead? We decompose the total effect of trade liberalization into those caused by inter-sectoral resource allocation (IRA) and by within-sector selection of firms according to productivity (which we call Melitz selection effect). It is the IRA effect that gives rise to differential impacts of trade liberalization in different sectors. These impacts include changes in the probability of entry into the export market, the fraction of firms that export and the share of export revenue. We test our hypotheses using Chinese firm-level data for the years after China's accession to WTO in 2001. The results generally support our hypotheses.
This paper develops a general equilibrium model of multi-product firms and analyzes their behavior during trade liberalization. Firm productivity in a given product is modeled as a combination of firm-level "ability" and firm-product-level "expertise", both of which are stochastic and unknown prior to the firm's payment of a sunk cost of entry. Higher firm-level ability raises a firm's productivity across all products, which induces a positive correlation between a firm's intensive (output per product) and extensive (number of products) margins. Trade liberalization fosters productivity growth within and across firms and in aggregate by inducing firms to shed marginally productive products and forcing the lowest-productivity firms to exit. Though exporters produce a smaller range of products after liberalization, they increase the share of products sold abroad as well as exports per product. All of these adjustments are shown to be relatively more pronounced in countries' comparative advantage industries.
This paper explores the impact of input trade liberalization on imported input and exported product prices. Using Chinese transaction data for 2000-2006, we capture causal effects between exogenous input tariff reductions and within firm changes in HS6-traded product prices. For identification, we make use of a natural control group of firms that are exempted from paying tariffs. Both imported input and export prices rise. The effect on export prices is specific to firms sourcing inputs from developed economies and exporting output to high-income countries. Results are consistent with a scenario within which firms exploit the input tariff cuts to access high-quality inputs in order to quality-upgrade their exports.
This book focuses on input trade liberalization in China and discusses the underlying causes and profound effects of Chinese enterprises facing import liberalization of intermediate input. The content of this book includes ten chapters. The analysis of this book mainly uses academic research, with policy study for a few chapters. Most chapters in this book apply the standard method of contemporary economic systems, integrating into the most advanced economic theories of international trade. The author uses theoretical models to obtain predictions which receive empirical support and carries out strict empirical research using data of China's manufacturing enterprises and China's customs to analyze the causes which affect Chinese enterprises facing import liberalization of intermediate input after China’s reform and opening-up. The suggested readership would be the public who are willing to understand the issues closely related to China’s input trade liberalization and opening-up policy, and basic knowledge in economics would be necessary in understanding the academic research part of the book. Meanwhile, this book is also specifically compelling to business persons and policy makers in that it enables deeper understanding on issues about outward foreign investment of enterprises and China’s opening-up policy and facilitates their decision-making process.
This book makes an intensive review of the literature on trade liberalisation and its impacts on growth and distribution in developing countries. Moreover, the authors scrutinise some controversial national initiatives that are gradually fragmenting the international economic field. The urgent need that multilateral institutions have to push trade higher up in the list of the political priorities is emphasised. In addition, the biggest producers and exporters of agricultural products have been adopting the genetic engineering in order to improve the factors productivity and the firms profits. The authors examine the potential motivations behind the different policies on GM products adopted by US and EU. Additionally, the welfare effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) in a vertical trade structure is investigated in this book. A three-country model is considered with one country exporting intermediate good and two countries exporting final good. Other chapters explore the major theories of international trade from antiquity up to the neo-classical economics in the latter part of the nineteenth century. Effective trade policies for developed countries today are also discussed, as well as international trade, both exports and imports, in countries such as India and China. It is the authors contention that these two countries pose particular challenges and offer particular opportunities in the evolving trade-development nexuses.
Global supply chain integration is not only a rapidly growing feature of international trade, it is responsible for fundamentally changing trade policy at international and domestic levels. Given that final goods are produced with both domestic and foreign suppliers, Ka Zeng and Xiaojun Li argue that global supply chain integration pits firms and industries that are more heavily dependent on foreign supply chains against those that are less dependent on intermediate goods for domestic production. Hence, businesses whose supply chain would be disrupted as a result of increased trade barriers should lobby for preferential trade liberalization to maintain access to those foreign markets. Moreover, businesses whose products are used in the production of goods in foreign countries should also support preferential trade liberalization to compete with suppliers from other parts of the world. Fragmenting Globalization uses multiple methods, including time series, cross-sectional analysis of the pattern of Preferential Trade Alliance formation by existing World Trade Organization members, a firm-level survey, and case studies of the pattern of corporate support for regional trade liberalization in both China and the United States. Zeng and Li show that the growing fragmentation of global production, trade, and investment is altering trade policy away from the traditional divide between export-oriented and import-competing industries.
In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.
This dissertation studies the dynamic effect of trade liberalization on trade, especially during a transition period of trade liberalization. This research is new to the literature which has focused on the static and permanent effect of trade liberalization so far. The first and the second chapters examine the dynamics of how trade responds to trade liberalization before its actual implementation. The third chapter emphasizes the changes in several aspects of trade due to trade liberalization after its implementation. The first chapter finds that exporters enter into an export market prior to the actual implementation of a trade liberalization episode (the “early entry decision”) only if the financial market of an origin country is sufficiently developed. An empirical study of free trade agreements shows that the amount of early entry into export markets, measured as the extensive margin of trade during periods before the tariff is reduced, is positively correlated with the measure of the financial development of exporting countries. This new stylized fact can reconcile apparently contradictory findings in the existing literature about the effect of trade liberalization over time. I demonstrate that this discrepancy disappears when a measure of financial development, the relative size of private credit by banks and other financial intermediaries to GDP, is included in the regression and interacted with FTA time dummy variables.Based on this empirical finding, the second chapter provides the theoretical background of how the early entry decision of potential exporters during trade liberalization episode depends on an origin country’s financial market condition. Two essential ingredients are incorporated in a typical dynamic international trade model, which are a financial market friction as a type of borrowing constraints in the credit market and a congestion externality in the export entry resource market. The model describes how the financial market friction deters potential exporters’ entry decision even if they have incentives to enter earlier than the actual implementation of trade liberalization because of the congestion externality. The simulation result with a reasonable calibration mimics the empirical evidence of earlier entry of a financially developed exporting country. The third chapter discovers three empirical regularities: (1) As an exporting country's either labor market friction measure or financial market friction measure increases, the size of real exports after trade liberalization implementation increases more gradually when other conditions are controlled; (2) Financial market friction is more likely to deter the entry of firms into exporting markets in the transition episode (extensive margin), while labor market friction is more likely to affect the size of exports (intensive margin); (3) The impact of financial market development on exports tends to be realized earlier than the labor market frictions effect on exports. These findings shed light on the importance of both market frictions in analyzing international trade dynamics, in contrast to the existing literature that focuses on either financial market or labor market conditions.