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Adding estimated behavioral equations to the standard RMSM- X model allows it to simulate the short- run consequences of inflation stabilization.
This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.
Macroeconomic stability is most precarious, and stabilization most likely to be delayed, where the party system is fragmented or polarized.
This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
This book examines the economic transformation of Turkey, a nation that has risen from bare subsistence in the early 1920s to a thriving market economy as it approaches its EU destination. It reviews the liberal period of the 1920s, highlights Turkey’s inward-looking economic and policy environments that prevailed for more than four decades, and provides an in-depth look at the stabilization and restructuring efforts since the 1980s, focusing on the legislative and political reforms implemented to comply with the terms of entry into the EU. This is a timely title that will be of great interest to policy makers, academics, and the general public, and is a valuable reference for students and scholars of international economics, macroeconomics, and public policy.
The central argument of this book is that while central bank independence can contribute to stabilization, inflation-targeting monetary policy is quite powerless in promoting economic development. The basic message is simple: Policy makers should not strive to achieve price stability at any cost, as stability in product markets does not necessarily translate into economic development. The recent experience of Turkey is illuminating and other developing countries, in particular those using inflation targeting monetary policy framework, can draw useful lessons from this experience. Early chapters summarize the deregulation process from 1980 to 2001. The Turkish Central Bank is placed at the center of the analysis as monetary policies have a significant impact both on stability and development. Although the 1994 and 2001 financial crises have been extensively studied elsewhere, they are nevertheless summarized to underscore the importance of central bank independence. Later chapters investigate the impact of an independent central bank on stabilization and development from 2001 onwards. Upon visiting the Turkish Central Bank's website, readers are greeted with the following statement: "The primary objective of the Bank is to achieve and maintain price stability." By the end of this book the reader should be able to assess the relative merits of a monetary policy that focuses on price stability, versus an alternative where price stability is accompanied by other objectives targeting development, for instance, monitoring also unemployment rates, which would undermine its independence to some degree. The study aims to provide a perspective on the need for such an alternative in line also with the vision of some international agencies on development, such as the UNCTAD and the ILO. This is the first book-length study examining the financial reforms Turkey undertook in its path towards EU accession. This unique work will be of interest to economists and other experts in financial history, (de)regulation, institutional economics and economic development, as well as a broad range of scholars interested in the dramatic transformation of Turkey's economy and society in the 21st century.
This book provides a set of critical perspectives on the economic crises of 2000 and 2001 focusing on both the origins and consequences of the crises. Attention is drawn to the role of domestic actors as well as key external actors such as the International Monetary Fund in precipitating the twin crises.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
This study reviews the literature on the contribution of low inflation to economic growth and the subsequent widespread adoption of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. Edwin Truman addresses the challenges and risks associated with such a framework. Building on these foundations, the study focuses on two major international economic policy issues: (1) the implications of differing national regimes of inflation targeting for international economic policy cooperation; and (2) the adoption of inflation targeting by emerging-market economies which often lack stable monetary policy environments and credible policy authorities—a situation which, among other things, can complicate the use of the inflation targeting framework as the basis for IMF-supported stabilization programs.