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Originally presented as the author's thesis (doctoral)--Universiteat Hohenheim, 2006.
Rampant inflation is a major economic problem in many of the less developed countries; two out of three attempts to stabilize these economies fail. Inflation Stabilization provides a valuable description and a critical analysis of the disinflation programs introduced in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Israel in 1985-86, and discusses the possibility of such a program in Mexico. It documents the initial steps in stabilization as well as the reasons for failure.As architects of the programs, several of the authors are in key positions to assess which aspects were critical in getting the programs accepted and where to look for difficulties and failures. In Israel, inflation was halted without recession. The challenge to policy makers today is in shifting from stabilization to the revival of sustained growth. This experience is described fully by Michael Bruno and Sylvia Piterman, who examine the critical issue of exchange rates, and by Alex Cukierman, who uses modeling to analyze the interaction of money, wages, prices, and activity under rational expectations that take the government's policy objectives into account.Endemic inflation and a sudden increase in external debt burden Argentina's economy, raising the wider issues of high inflation economies and stabilization that are discussed in the chapter by José Luis Machinea and that by Guido Di Tella and Alfredo Canavese.Eduardo Modiano and Mario Simonsen take up issues of wages in Brazil, particularly the problem of finding an equitable way to deal with a wage freeze; Simonsen develops an ambitious game theoretic rationalization of incomes policy as a coordinating device for imperfectly competitive economies. Bolivia did reach hyperinflation (price increases of more than 50 percent each month) before stabilizing. Juan Antonio Morales shows how stabilizing the exchange rate, in an economy where all pricing was already geared to the dollar, achieved stabilization without a wage or price freeze. And Francisco Gil Diaz asks whether an incomes-policy based program could work to control ever increasing inflation in Mexico.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Argentina’s government has made important progress in restoring integrity and transparency in public sector operations. These policy changes have put the economy on a stronger footing and corrected many of the most urgent macroeconomic imbalances. Private consumption strengthened in 2017, supported by greater real wages and buoyant credit growth. With stronger domestic demand, the trade surplus turned into a deficit and the current account deficit increased. Annual inflation has declined from its peak in 2016, but remained relatively resilient and inflation expectations moved up, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates. Going forward, GDP growth is expected to consolidate, inflation inertia will slowly subside, and the fiscal deficit will gradually fall.
A exploration of the latest trend in technology and the impact it will have on the economy, science, and society at large.
The "Argentine disappointment"—why Argentina persistently failed to achieve sustained economic stability during the twentieth century—is an issue that has mystified scholars for decades. In Straining the Anchor, Gerardo della Paolera and Alan M. Taylor provide many of the missing links that help explain this important historical episode. Written chronologically, this book follows the various fluctuations of the Argentine economy from its postrevolutionary volatility to a period of unprecedented prosperity to a dramatic decline from which the country has never fully recovered. The authors examine in depth the solutions that Argentina has tried to implement such as the Caja de Conversión, the nation's first currency board which favored a strict gold-standard monetary regime, the forerunner of the convertibility plan the nation has recently adopted. With many countries now using—or seriously contemplating—monetary arrangements similar to Argentina's, this important and persuasive study maps out one of history's most interesting monetary experiments to show what works and what doesn't.
In 2001- 02, Argentina experienced one of the worst economic crises in its history. A default on government debt, which occurred against the backdrop of a prolonged recession, sent the Argentine currency and economy into a tailspin. Although the economy has since recovered from the worst, the crisis has imposed hardships on the people of Argentina, and the road back to sustained growth and stability is long. The crisis was all the more troubling in light of the fact that Argentina was widely considered a model reformer and was engaged in a succession of IMF-supported programs through much of the 1990s. This Occasional Paper examines the origins of the crisis and its evolution up to early 2002 and draws general policy lessons, both for countries’ efforts to prevent crises and for the IMF’s surveillance and use of its financial resources.
Argentina poses a challenge to economists, economic historians, political scientists, and other concerned with the interrelationship of political and economic forces in developing nations. Although possessed of most of the attributes generally thought necessary for rapid and self-sustaining development, her economy has barely kept up with the population increase, and living standards of large segments of the population have not advanced. The causes of this paradox have never been adequately explained. Ferrer interprets the economic stagnation of Argentina in historical terms, tracing the evolution of the country's economy through four separate stages, beginning with the colonial era in the sixteenth century. Most attention is given to the period of "nonintegrated industrial economy," from 1930 to the present. According to Ferrer, modern Argentina was formed in the second half of the nineteenth century, when the country was integrated into the world economy as a large producer and exporter of agricultural products. The great influx of immigrants and foreign capital led to a rapid disintegration of the traditional society, which had been composed of isolated regional economies with a low level of economic and social development. The Pampa area, an "open space" that had been largely uninhabited, became the nucleus of the subsequent expansion because of its rich land resources and humid and temperate climate. The dislocation of the international economy after the world economic crisis of the 1930's and the rigidity of the Argentine agricultural economy, confronted the country with need to industrialize and diversify its economic structure. Some progress has been made along this road, but Ferrer attributes Argentina's postwar difficulties to the lack of proper answers to the problems of an agricultural economy in transition to a modern industrial society. The author relates economic data to the broader social and political issues. He forsees a definitive confrontation between two social and economic forces: one favoring maintenance of the status quo, the other advocating an enlightened policy of basic industrial growth. The outcome of this confrontation will have a profound impact on the future of Argentina and, indeed, all Latin America. This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press's mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1967.
The author of "The Chastening" returns with this definitive account of the most spectacular economic meltdown of modern times as he exposes dangerous flaws of the global financial system.
Speaking of crisis -- A suspicious history -- Economies of loss -- Exhausted futures -- Solidary selves -- Argentine afterword.