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Containing inflation has turned out to be one of the most challenging aspects of economic management in Iraq. This paper posits that conventional as well as unconventional factors explain inflation dynamics in the recent past. We build a theoretical model based on the insights into the workings of socialist economies under supply shortages provided by Shleifer and Vishny (1992) to help explain price dynamics. In the model, strategic behavior of the fuel distribution monopolist results in fuel shortages, with implications for fuel and non-fuel inflation. A number of step-wise adjustments of administered prices for fuel products since December 2005 offer an interesting experiment to help study this behavior. Our findings show that inflation may have been influenced by shortages in fuel and non-fuel commodity supplies, which themselves are driven by violence and rent-seeking.
This groundbreaking volume offers a comprehensive look at the current state of IraqÕs political economy in the aftermath of the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Frank R. Gunter describes the unique difficulties facing the modern Iraqi economy and provides detailed recommendations for fostering future economic growth and stability. The book begins with an overview of IraqÕs current political, economic, and social status, including discussions of real growth, unemployment, inflation, health, poverty, education, and gender issues. This is followed by a comprehensive look at what the author identifies as the three dominant characteristics of the political economy of Iraq: corruption, political instability, and petroleum. Using these foundational ideas as a springboard, the book then provides a detailed breakdown of the Iraqi economy by sector, as well as discussions of IraqÕs fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. The final chapter identifies the major trends that will determine the course of future economic development in Iraq and provides insightful recommendations for encouraging positive economic growth. Offering the most comprehensive and timely discussion of IraqÕs economy to date, this critical volume will appeal to students and professors of international studies, political economy, and Middle East studies as well as anyone considering doing business in this rapidly changing economy.
The $3 Trillion War will be a devastating reckoning of the true cost of the Iraq war - quite apart from its tragic human toll - which the Bush administration has estimated at $50 billion, but which Stiglitz and Bilmes will show underestimates the real figure by approximately six times. The authors expose the gigantic expenses which have so far not been officially accounted for, including not only big ticket items like replacing military equipment (being used up at six times the peacetime rate) but also the cost of caring for thousands of wounded veterans - for the rest of their lives. Shifting to a global perspective, the authors investigate the cost in lives and damage within Iraq and the Middle East generally. With chilling precision, they calculate what the money spent on the war would have produced had it been further invested in the growth of the economy, in the US and around the world, and in infrastructure building. Stiglitz and Bilmes write in simple language, which makes the details they present, and the sums they add up, all the more disturbing. This book will change forever the way we think about the Iraq war - and about the cost of war generally.
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
The Iran-Iraq War were one of the longest and most devastating uninterrupted wars amongst modern nation states. It produced neither victor nor vanquished and left the regimes in both countries basically intact. However, it is clear that the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the war mean that 'going back' is not an option. Iraq owes too much to regain the lead it formerly held in economic performance and development levels. What then does reconstruction mean? In this book, Kamran Mofid counteracts the scant analysis to date of the economic consequences of the Gulf War by analysing its impact on both economies in terms of oil production, exports, foreign exchange earnings, non-defence foreign trade and agricultural performance. In the final section, Mofid brings together the component parts of the economic cost of the war to assign a dollar value to the devastation.
Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.
Presents the findings of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which was formed in 2006 to examine the situation in Iraq and offer suggestions for the American military's future involvement in the region.
The post-World War II occupations of Germany and Japan set standards for postconflict nation-building that have not since been matched. Only in recent years has the United States has felt the need to participate in similar transformations, but it is now facing one of the most challenging prospects since the 1940s: Iraq. The authors review seven case studies--Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan--and seek lessons about what worked well and what did not. Then, they examine the Iraq situation in light of these lessons. Success in Iraq will require an extensive commitment of financial, military, and political resources for a long time. The United States cannot afford to contemplate early exit strategies and cannot afford to leave the job half completed.
The Kurdistan region of Iraq is facing an economic and humanitarian crisis as a result of the influx of Syrian refugees which began in 2012 and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 2014. The region's population increased by 28 percent over a short period, placing strains on the local economy, host community, and access to public services. This book provides national and regional policy makers with a technical assessment of the impact and stabilization costs needed for 2015 associated with the influx of refugees and IDPs. The stabilization cost for 2015 is estimated at US$1.4 billion in additional spending above and beyond the region's budget. This estimate could significantly increase should the crisis persist longer. The study highlights how prices and unemployment have increased, and refugees and IDPs entering the labor market are pushing wages down. A surge in violence led to supply side shocks. The ISIS crisis has had a significant effect on trade of goods and services. Transportation routes were disrupted. Foreign direct investment flows have declined and operations of foreign enterprises have been adversely affected. Disruption of public investment projects have had a negative impact on the economy. Based on the World Bank estimates, economic growth contracted by 5 percentage points in the region and the poverty rate more than doubled, rising from 3.5 percent to 8.1 percent. While the government has been responsive to addressing the needs of the displaced population up until now, more resources are needed to avert this humanitarian crisis and address the needs of the displaced population in the medium- and long-term. The report is an outcome of close collaboration between a wide spectrum of World Bank experts and regional government institutions and international partners.