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In the past two decades several activities in the field of water resources management have been enhanced and intensified. This . rise had at least two independent reasons. The first and main one was the constantly increasing water demand for agriculture and industry on one side and the concern about the deteriorating environment on the other. While this last concern was lately overshadowed by deterioration of national economies, the quantity of available water resources has certainly not increased with the growing scarcity of funds for its development and protection. Furthermore, the standard of living, which raised across the world, even in India and China, countries which concentrate more than a third of the world population, has made people and their governments more aware of natural disasters caused by weather. Since a large percentage of losses in human life and material damage from weather-related disasters are caused by water, either by its excess or scarcity, the concern about water has been increasingly associated with these disasters. The second reason for intensified water resources management is man's spectacular technological advance in electronics, computers and use of satellites. The Koran says that two things cannot be predicted: the sex of the child in its mother's womb and the quantity of water that falls from the sky and flows in rivers. Technological progress has disproved both of these caveats.
This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.
This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).
The efficiency of a probabilistic hydrological forecasting system with weather radar and the Probability distributed hydrological model (PDM) was evaluated at the Brue catchment; south-western England. The ability of the radar to measure gauged precipitation in 2007 (regarded as the ground truth) was evaluated using Normalized Bias (NB) and Normalized Error (NE) statistics as the objective function of evaluation. The radar overestimated precipitation measurements by average gauges with NB value of 0.41 and a considerably low NE of 0.68. Furthermore, the effectiveness of a Deterministic nowcasting system (DNS) to forecast radar measured precipitation at 132 forecast time series of 6hrs forecast lead time was assessed. The DNS overestimated the radar measured precipitation with a NB value of 87% and recorded an accumulated NE of 146%. Moreover, the efficiencies of 10 ensemble precipitation forecats generated from a Stochastic nowcasting system (SNS) over the singular deterministic forecasts from the DNS was evaluated at 3 major hydrological events. Some of the ensembles significantly performed better than the deterministic forecast and brilliantly captured the radar measured precipitation at most of the forecast time series. Furthermore, the efficiencies of these sources of precipitation measurement to simulate flows with the PDM at the Brue catchment were also assessed by integrating the radar-based forecasts with measurements from average gauges. The PDM performed satisfactorily well in simulating the flows of 17th January 2007 with an average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency Index (NSE) of 0.65 and the model was judged insensitive to the significantly high precipitation inputs for the hydrological event of 27th of May 2007. However, the PDM performed poorly in simulating flows for the historical storms of 20th of July 2007; with the model under estimating flows with bias value of over 250 cumecs for an event popular for its devastating flooding in the Southwest of England. The model inadequacies was however associated to poor radar precipitation measurements and forecasts on which flow simulation was based. This work therefore emphasis the need for developments in hydrological modeling as well as advancement in weather radar technology to effectively correct radar errors due to radar calibration, signal attenuation, clutter and anomalous propagation, vertical variation of reflectivity, range effects, Z-R relationships, variations of drop size distributions, vertical air motions, beam overshooting the shallow precipitation and sampling issues, that has been identified to affect radar measurements.
Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective, Second Edition covers hydrologic forecasting systems on both a national and regional scale. This updated edition includes a breakdown by county contribution and solutions to common issues with a wide range of approaches to address the difficulties inherent in the development, implementation and operational success of national-scale flood forecasting systems. Special attention is given to recent advances in machine learning techniques for flood forecasting. Overall, the information will lead to improvements of existing systems and provide a valuable reference on the intricacies of forecast systems in different parts of the world. - Covers global and regional systems, thus allowing readers to understand the different forecasting systems and how they developed - Offers practical applications for groups trying to improve existing flood forecasting systems - Includes innovative solutions for those interested in developing new systems - Contains analytical and updated information on forecasting and monitoring systems
It is hoped that the publication will prove to be useful to hydrological forecasting services and individuals developing methods and techniques of hydrological forecasting.
The impacts of climate change on water resource management, as well as increasingly severe natural disasters over the last decades, have caught global attention. Reliable and accurate hydrological forecasts are essential for efficient water resource management and the mitigation of natural disasters. While the notorious nonlinear hydrological processes make accurate forecasts a very challenging task, it requires advanced techniques to build accurate forecast models and reliable management systems. One of the newest techniques for modeling complex systems is artificial intelligence (AI). AI can replicate the way humans learn and has great capability to efficiently extract crucial information from large amounts of data to solve complex problems. The fourteen research papers published in this Special Issue contribute significantly to the uncertainty assessment of operational hydrologic forecasting under changing environmental conditions and the promotion of water resources management by using the latest advanced techniques, such as AI techniques. The fourteen contributions across four major research areas: (1) machine learning approaches to hydrologic forecasting; (2) uncertainty analysis and assessment on hydrological modeling under changing environments; (3) AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation; (4) adaption strategies of extreme hydrological events for hazard mitigation. The papers published in this issue will not only advance water sciences but also help policymakers to achieve more sustainable and effective water resource management.
This book comprehensively accounts the advances in data-based approaches for hydrologic modeling and forecasting. Eight major and most popular approaches are selected, with a chapter for each — stochastic methods, parameter estimation techniques, scaling and fractal methods, remote sensing, artificial neural networks, evolutionary computing, wavelets, and nonlinear dynamics and chaos methods. These approaches are chosen to address a wide range of hydrologic system characteristics, processes, and the associated problems. Each of these eight approaches includes a comprehensive review of the fundamental concepts, their applications in hydrology, and a discussion on potential future directions.
This book presents the main hydrological methods and techniques used in the design and operation of hydraulic projects and the management of water resources and associated natural risks. It covers the key topics of water resources engineering, from the estimation of runoff volumes and unit hydrographs to the routing of flows along a river and through lakes, reservoirs, and hydraulic structures. It deals with questions regarding basic hydrological data, hydrological modeling and the prediction and forecasting of low flows and flood discharges.
Advances in computer technology, in the technology of communication and in mathematical modelling of processes in the hydrological cycle have recently improved our potential to protect ourselves against damage through floods and droughts and to control quantities and qualities in our water systems. This development was demonstrated in a 1983 post-experience course at Wageningen University where an international group of experts reviewed successful modelling techniques and described the design and operation of a number of forecasting and control systems in drainage basins and river reaches of various sizes and under various geographical and climat ological conditions. A special effort was made to bridge the gap between theory and practice; case studies showed that each forecasting system was designed to meet a set of specific requirements and they illustrated that the forecasting system can only be expected to operate reliably if, on the one hand, it is based on sound theoretical concepts and methods and if, on the other hand, it is robust so that, also under adverse conditions, it will continue to collect and process the necessary input data and produce correct and timely signals. We were pleased to meet with encouragement for preserving the course material and making it available to a wider public. This was effected by the team of authorf who elaborated, updated and harmonized the materia in two stages; first into an issue of our university department and finally into the manuscript of this book.