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Assessment of human casualties in earthquakes has become a topic of vital importance for national and urban authorities responsible for emergency provision, for the development of mitigation strategies and for the development of adequate insurance schemes. In the last few years important work has been carried out on a number of recent events (including earthquakes in Kocaeli, Turkey 1999, Niigata Japan, 2004, Sichuan, China 2008 and L'Aquila,Italy 2009). These events have created new and detailed casualty data, which has not until now been properly assembled and evaluated. This book draws the new evidence from recent events together with existing knowledge. It summarises current trends in the understanding of the factors influencing the numbers and types of casualties in earthquakes; it offers methods to incorporate this understanding into the estimation of losses in future events in different parts of the world; it discusses ways in which pre-event mitigation activity and post-event emergency management can reduce the toll of casualties in future events; and it identifies future research needs.
Since the publication of the successful first edition of Earthquake Protection there have been 110 lethal earthquakes, killing 130 000 people; there have also been significant developments in the field of earthquake risk management, particularly in the modelling and analysis of risk for insurance and financial services. Furthermore, major earthquake disasters, such as the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan and the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey have occurred. The experience and knowledge gained through these events have improved our understanding of how to manage, mitigate and work towards the prevention of similar catastrophes. The 1990s were in fact the costliest decade on record in terms of disaster management due to such seismic events, placing unprecedented pressure on the insurance industry in particular, and changing its view of earthquake protection. Significantly revised and updated, this second edition continues to provide a comprehensive overview of how to reduce the impact of earthquakes on people and property, and implement best practice in managing the consequences of such disasters. It also includes significant coverage of the techniques of modelling earthquake catastrophe. Each chapter deals with a separate aspect of protection, and covers a wide range of economic and social conditions, drawing on the authors' considerable personal experience and with reference to real life examples. Key features include: Recent event coverage Modern developments in the theory and practice of planning and engineering loss estimation techniques, along with new engineering techniques such as microzonation and hazard-mapping Historic buildings experience An entirely new chapter on 'Earthquakes and Finance' This valuable book provides essential reading for earthquake and structural engineers and geoscientists, as well as insurers and loss prevention specialists, risk managers and assessors involved in managing earthquake risk, urban and regional planners, and emergency management agencies.
This manuscript sets out a process for estimating fatalities in collapsed buildings due to ground shaking in an earthquake. The aim of this research is to supplement current earthquake loss estimation with fatality rates (percentage of occupants killed) for use in models which are based on recent empirical information on deaths from earthquakes. This document specifically explores the lethality potential to occupants of collapsed structures. Whilst earthquake casualty modeling has admittedly suffered from a lack of post-earthquake collection of data and rigour in assessing these data, recent earthquakes such as 2008 Wenchuan (China) and 2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) have brought to light some important findings. Under the auspices of US Geological Survey’s PAGER, empirical fatality data related to collapses of buildings from significant earthquakes in the past 40 years have been thoroughly examined. Through detailed investigations of fatal building collapses and the volume reductions within these buildings, important clues related to the lethality potential of different failure mechanisms of global modern and older construction types were found. The gathered evidence forms the basis of the derivation of a set of fatality rates for use in loss models. The set of judgment-based rates are for 31 global building types. This significant advancement in casualty modeling, the resolutions and quality of available data, the important assumptions made, and the final derivation of fatality rates are discussed here. This document contributes to global efforts to develop a way of estimating probable earthquake fatalities very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The fatality rates proposed here can be incorporated directly into earthquake loss estimation models where fatalities are derived from collapses of different types of buildings.
The Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES), administered by the National Science Foundation (NSF), is scheduled to become operational in 2004. These network sites will perform a range of experiments to test and validate complex computer models being developed to simulate the behavior of structures subjected to earthquakes. To assist in this effort, the NSF requested the National Research Council(NRC) to frame the major questions to be addressed by and to develop a long-term research agenda for NEES. Preventing Earthquake Disasters presents an overview of the grand challenge including six critical research problems making up that challenge. The report also provides an assessment of earthquake engineering research issues and the role of information technology in that research effort, and a research plan for NEES.
One of the world's leading seismologists looks at the dangers of megaquakes, and explains where they'll next strike, why they're becoming more lethal, and what science and engineering are doing to save lives.
The term 'natural disaster' is often used to refer to natural events such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. However, the phrase 'natural disaster' suggests an uncritical acceptance of a deeply engrained ideological and cultural myth. At Risk questions this myth and argues that extreme natural events are not disasters until a vulnerable group of people is exposed. The updated new edition confronts a further ten years of ever more expensive and deadly disasters and discusses disaster not as an aberration, but as a signal failure of mainstream 'development'. Two analytical models are provided as tools for understanding vulnerability. One links remote and distant 'root causes' to 'unsafe conditions' in a 'progression of vulnerability'. The other uses the concepts of 'access' and 'livelihood' to understand why some households are more vulnerable than others. Examining key natural events and incorporating strategies to create a safer world, this revised edition is an important resource for those involved in the fields of environment and development studies.
The United States will certainly be subject to damaging earthquakes in the future. Some of these earthquakes will occur in highly populated and vulnerable areas. Coping with moderate earthquakes is not a reliable indicator of preparedness for a major earthquake in a populated area. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose. Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts-the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors-demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. National Earthquake Resilience presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes. The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is the multi-agency program mandated by Congress to undertake activities to reduce the effects of future earthquakes in the United States. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-the lead NEHRP agency-commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. National Earthquake Resilience does this by assessing the activities and costs that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years. National Earthquake Resilience interprets resilience broadly to incorporate engineering/science (physical), social/economic (behavioral), and institutional (governing) dimensions. Resilience encompasses both pre-disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster response. In combination, these will enhance the robustness of communities in all earthquake-vulnerable regions of our nation so that they can function adequately following damaging earthquakes. While National Earthquake Resilience is written primarily for the NEHRP, it also speaks to a broader audience of policy makers, earth scientists, and emergency managers.
We in the United States have almost come to accept natural disasters as part of our nation's social fabric. News of property damage, economic and social disruption, and injuries follow earthquakes, fires, floods and hurricanes. Surprisingly, however, the total losses that follow these natural disasters are not consistently calculated. We have no formal system in either the public or private sector for compiling this information. The National Academies recommends what types of data should be assembled and tracked.