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Using two decades of American Housing Survey data from 1985-2005, we estimate the impact on household mobility of owners having negative equity in their homes and of rising mortgage interest rates. We find that both lead to lower, not higher, mobility rates over time. The impacts are economically large, with mobility being almost 50 percent lower for owners with negative equity in their homes. This does not imply that current worries about defaults and owners having to move from their homes are entirely misplaced. It does indicate that, in the past, the lock-in effects of these two factors were dominant over time. Our results cannot simply be extrapolated to the future, but policy makers should begin to consider the consequences of lock-in and reduced household mobility because they are quite different from those associated with default and higher mobility.
Using two decades of American Housing Survey data from 1985-2005, we estimate the impact on household mobility of owners having negative equity in their homes and of rising mortgage interest rates. We find that both lead to lower, not higher, mobility rates over time. The impacts are economically large, with mobility being almost 50 percent lower for owners with negative equity in their homes. This does not imply that current worries about defaults and owners having to move from their homes are entirely misplaced. It does indicate that, in the past, the lock-in effects of these two factors were dominant over time. Our results cannot simply be extrapolated to the future, but policy makers should begin to consider the consequences of lock-in and reduced household mobility because they are quite different from those associated with default and higher mobility.
This paper provides updated estimates of the impact of three financial frictions - negative equity, mortgage lock-in, and property tax lock-in - on household mobility. We add the 2009 wave of the American Housing Survey (AHS) to our sample and also create an improved measure of permanent moves in response to Schulhofer-Wohl's (2011) critique of our earlier work (Ferreira, Gyourko and Tracy (2010)). Our updated estimates corroborate our previous results: negative equity reduces household mobility by 30 percent, and $1,000 of additional mortgage or property tax costs reduces household mobility by 10%-16%. Schulhofer-Wohl's finding of a slight positive correlation between mobility and negative equity appears due to a large fraction of false positives, as his coding methodology has the propensity to misclassify almost half of the additional moves it identifies relative to our measure of permanent moves. This also makes his mobility measure dynamically inconsistent, as many transitions originally classified as a move are reclassified as a non-move when additional AHS panels become available. We conclude with directions for future research, including potential improvements to measures of household mobility.
In the light of better and more detailed administrative databases, this open access book provides statistical tools for evaluating the effects of public policies advocated by governments and public institutions. Experts from academia, national statistics offices and various research centers present modern econometric methods for an efficient data-driven policy evaluation and monitoring, assess the causal effects of policy measures and report on best practices of successful data management and usage. Topics include data confidentiality, data linkage, and national practices in policy areas such as public health, education and employment. It offers scholars as well as practitioners from public administrations, consultancy firms and nongovernmental organizations insights into counterfactual impact evaluation methods and the potential of data-based policy and program evaluation.
This book provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the correlates and consequences of residential relocation. Drawing on multiple nationally representative data sets, the book explores historic patterns and current trends in household mobility; individuals’ mobility-related decisions; and the individual, family, and community outcomes associated with moving. These sections inform later discussions of mobility-related policy, practice, and directions for future research.
This book addresses essential questions about housing by building theoretical models based on various real world problems in Japan and testing these models using econometric methods. Almost all related empirical analyses use Japanese household longitudinal data. Accordingly, the author analyzes whole aspects of the data, based on an understanding of the actual situation, theory, and empirical analysis, to directly derive a vision of a future housing policy. Why are houses expensive and difficult to obtain in Japan? Why do people have to live in small houses? Why do people not relocate frequently? Why is the earthquake insurance subscription rate so low, particularly in an earthquake-prone country such as Japan, even after such a catastrophic event as the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011? How do existing housing finance and tax policies or laws relate to these real world problems? To answer these questions, the book clarifies the unique criteria that characterize housing problems in Japan and presents a vision of future housing policy. The short answer is that existing housing finance policy that adopts criteria based on the floor space of houses creates incentives for people to live in even smaller houses. Furthermore, the Japan Rental Act, which affects people renting homes, reduces residential mobility. The incidence of underinsurance against earthquake risk is a result of earthquake insurance market imperfections such as crude and rough geographical risk ratings. The book elaborates on these factors in four parts and will be of interest to all readers who are concerned with the housing market and household behavior in Japan.
Developments in methodologies, agglomeration, and a range of applied issues have characterized recent advances in regional and urban studies. Volume 5 concentrates on these developments while treating traditional subjects such as housing, the costs and benefits of cities, and policy issues beyond regional inequalities. Contributors make a habit of combining theory and empirics in each chapter, guiding research amid a trend in applied economics towards structural and quasi-experimental approaches. Clearly distinguished from the New Economic Geography covered by Volume 4, these articles feature an international approach that positions recent advances within the discipline of economics and society at large. Editors are recognized as leaders and can attract an international list of contributors Regional and urban studies interest economists in many subdisciplines, such as labor, development, and public economics Table of contents combines theoretical and applied subjects, ensuring broad appeal to readers
Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Developments in methodologies, agglomeration, and a range of applied issues have characterized recent advances in regional and urban studies. Volume 5 concentrates on these developments while treating traditional subjects such as housing, the costs and benefits of cities, and policy issues beyond regional inequalities. Contributors make a habit of combining theory and empirics in each chapter, guiding research amid a trend in applied economics towards structural and quasi-experimental approaches. Clearly distinguished from the New Economic Geography covered by Volume 4, these articles feature an international approach that positions recent advances within the discipline of economics and society at large. - Emphasizes advances in applied econometrics and the blurring of "within" and "between" cities - Promotes the integration of theory and empirics in most chapters - Presents new research on housing, especially in macro and international finance contexts