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This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the econometric results indicate that government spending, money supply growth, global inflation, and exchange rate pass-through play central roles in the inflation process. These findings are broadly consistent with the experience of other countries that are natural resource dependent. We also find evidence that the imposition and subsequent removal of international sanctions on Libya had a noteworthy impact on consumer price inflation. Collectively, our estimates indicate that the deviations from an equilibrium path initiate significant adjustments in inflation dynamics, and that closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies would improve the balance between economic growth and price stability.
This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964-2012, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the results indicate that government spending, money supply growth, global inflation, and exchange rate pass-through play central roles in the inflation process. These findings are broadly consistent with the experience of other countries that are natural resource dependent. We also find evidence that the imposition and subsequent removal of international sanctions on Libya had a significant impact on consumer price inflation. Collectively, our econometric estimates indicate that the deviations from an equilibrium path initiate significant adjustments in inflation dynamics, and that closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies would improve the balance between economic growth and price stability.
This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the econometric results indicate that government spending, money supply growth, global inflation, and exchange rate pass-through play central roles in the inflation process. These findings are broadly consistent with the experience of other countries that are natural resource dependent. We also find evidence that the imposition and subsequent removal of international sanctions on Libya had a noteworthy impact on consumer price inflation. Collectively, our estimates indicate that the deviations from an equilibrium path initiate significant adjustments in inflation dynamics, and that closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies would improve the balance between economic growth and price stability.
The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region’s growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible.

Libya

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Published: 2013-05-31

Total Pages: 50


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The political and security environment remains uncertain in Libya. Libya faces the challenges of stabilizing the economy and responding to the aspirations of the revolution. The near-term outlook is favorable, but there are significant risks. The overarching policy objective should be to foster inclusive growth. Banks are not intermediating, and resources should be devoted to its effective implementation. Expenditure is skewed toward wages and subsidies. Libya needs to adopt a comprehensive reform strategy. The government agrees with the assessment of the economic outlook and associated risks and policy options as outlined by Executive Directors.
Full color publication. This document has been produced and updated over a 21-year period. It is intended to be a handy reference document, basically one page per flight, and care has been exercised to make it as error-free as possible. This document is basically "as flown" data and has been compiled from many sources including flight logs, flight rules, flight anomaly logs, mod flight descent summary, post flight analysis of mps propellants, FDRD, FRD, SODB, and the MER shuttle flight data and inflight anomaly list. Orbit distance traveled is taken from the PAO mission statistics.
This book, in the form of a memorandum to the president, suggests two alternative approaches the United States could take to trade policy.
A bold retooling of statistics to focus directly on predictive performance with traditional and contemporary data types and methodologies.
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