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This book describes a maximally simple market risk model that is still practical and main risk measures like the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall. It outlines the model's (i) underlying math, (ii) daily operation, and (iii) implementation, while stripping away statistical overhead to keep the concepts accessible. The author selects and weighs the various model features, motivating the choices under real-world constraints, and addresses the evermore important handling of regulatory requirements. The book targets not only practitioners new to the field but also experienced market risk operators by suggesting useful data analysis procedures and implementation details. It furthermore addresses market risk consumers such as managers, traders, and compliance officers by making the model behavior intuitively transparent. A very useful guide to the theoretical and practical aspects of implementing and operating a risk-monitoring system for a mid-size financial institution. It sets a common body of knowledge to facilitate communication between risk managers, computer and investment specialists by bridging their diverse backgrounds. Giovanni Barone-Adesi — Professor, Universitá della Svizzera italiana This unassuming and insightful book starts from the basics and plainly brings the reader up to speed on both theory and implementation. Shane Hegarty — Director Trade Floor Risk Management, Scotiabank Visit the book’s website at www.value-at-risk.com.
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.
Value at Risk and Bank Capital Management offers a unique combination of concise, expert academic analysis of the latest technical VaR measures and their applications, and the practical realities of bank decision making about capital management and capital allocation. The book contains concise, expert analysis of the latest technical VaR measures but without the highly mathematical component of other books. It discusses practical applications of these measures in the real world of banking, focusing on effective decision making for capital management and allocation. The author, Francesco Saita, is based at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, one of the foremost institutions for banking in Europe. He provides readers with his extensive academic and theoretical expertise combined with his practical and real-world understanding of bank structure, organizational constraints, and decision-making processes. This book is recommended for graduate students in master's or Ph.D. programs in finance/banking and bankers and risk managers involved in capital allocation and portfolio management. - Contains concise, expert analysis of the latest technical VaR measures but without the highly mathematical component of other books - Discusses practical applications of these measures in the real world of banking, focusing on effective decision making for capital management and allocation - Author is based at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, one of the foremost institutions for banking in Europe
The Second Edition of this best-selling book expands its advanced approach to financial risk models by covering market, credit, and integrated risk. With new data that cover the recent financial crisis, it combines Excel-based empirical exercises at the end of each chapter with online exercises so readers can use their own data. Its unified GARCH modeling approach, empirically sophisticated and relevant yet easy to implement, sets this book apart from others. Five new chapters and updated end-of-chapter questions and exercises, as well as Excel-solutions manual, support its step-by-step approach to choosing tools and solving problems. Examines market risk, credit risk, and operational risk Provides exceptional coverage of GARCH models Features online Excel-based empirical exercises
In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management is a practical guide to modern financial risk management for both practitioners and academics. Now in its second edition with more topics, more sample problems and more real world examples, this popular guide to financial risk management introduces readers to practical quantitative techniques for analyzing and managing financial risk. In a concise and easy-to-read style, each chapter introduces a different topic in mathematics or statistics. As different techniques are introduced, sample problems and application sections demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to actual risk management problems. Exercises at the end of each chapter and the accompanying solutions at the end of the book allow readers to practice the techniques they are learning and monitor their progress. A companion Web site includes interactive Excel spreadsheet examples and templates. Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management is an indispensable reference for today’s financial risk professional.
An innovative guide that identifies what distinguishes the best financial risk takers from the rest From 1987 to 1992, a small group of Wall Street quants invented an entirely new way of managing risk to maximize success: risk management for risk-takers. This is the secret that lets tiny quantitative edges create hedge fund billionaires, and defines the powerful modern global derivatives economy. The same practical techniques are still used today by risk-takers in finance as well as many other fields. Red-Blooded Risk examines this approach and offers valuable advice for the calculated risk-takers who need precise quantitative guidance that will help separate them from the rest of the pack. While most commentators say that the last financial crisis proved it's time to follow risk-minimizing techniques, they're wrong. The only way to succeed at anything is to manage true risk, which includes the chance of loss. Red-Blooded Risk presents specific, actionable strategies that will allow you to be a practical risk-taker in even the most dynamic markets. Contains a secret history of Wall Street, the parts all the other books leave out Includes an intellectually rigorous narrative addressing what it takes to really make it in any risky activity, on or off Wall Street Addresses essential issues ranging from the way you think about chance to economics, politics, finance, and life Written by Aaron Brown, one of the most calculated and successful risk takers in the world of finance, who was an active participant in the creation of modern risk management and had a front-row seat to the last meltdown Written in an engaging but rigorous style, with no equations Contains illustrations and graphic narrative by renowned manga artist Eric Kim There are people who disapprove of every risk before the fact, but never stop anyone from doing anything dangerous because they want to take credit for any success. The recent financial crisis has swelled their ranks, but in learning how to break free of these people, you'll discover how taking on the right risk can open the door to the most profitable opportunities.