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This paper presents a model of a high-inflation economy. The model includes the government budget constraint and money demand equation of Cagan's 1956 model; an accelerationist Phillips curve that captures inflation inertia; and an aggregate-spending equation that accounts for the effects of the inflation tax. The paper derives the dynamic effects of fiscal policy, incomes policies, and supply shocks, and uses the results to interpret high-inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s.
This paper studies the role of government expenditure in shaping inflation dynamics via the lens of the Phillips curve. We estimate the Phillips curve implied from a structural New Keynesian model that incorporates government expenditure using aggregate US data. Our estimation results based on external instruments show that: (i) the estimated slope of the augmented Phillips curve is flatter than in the canonical specification without government expenditure; (ii) the estimated coefficient for government expenditure is significantly negative, as the theory predicts; and (iii) the variation in government expenditures is a significant component in driving inflation dynamics. The augmented Phillips curve substantially improves its ability to capture inflation dynamics, including during and after the Great Recession, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings provide a new perspective on understanding inflation dynamics that resolve the inflation "puzzles" in a standard framework.
This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation tax and the level of government spending in a public finance context. The key feature of the model developed is that it recognizes the possibility that conventional taxes, such as the consumption tax, may carry increasing marginal collection costs. As a result, and unlike previous findings in the literature, the inflation tax becomes an increasing function of government spending. Furthermore, the more inefficient the tax collection system, the larger the increase in the inflation tax for a given increase in government spending. A numerical analysis of the model provides additional insights into these relationships.
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 1, , language: English, abstract: The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia over the period of 1991/92- 2014/15 by using data at quarter base. The study was employed Johansen method of co-integration and vector error correction model and a technique of conditional least square. The result shows that both in long-run and short-run the relationship between inflation and economic growth is positive. Despite to this, the granger causality test tells us bi- directional causation between these two variables. The result also revealed that threshold level of inflation beyond on which inflation negatively affects economic growth of Ethiopia is 5 percent. Therefore, co-ordination between macro- economic policy makers is vital and should have to raise their hands and put their eyes on measures that keep down inflation below 5 percent to have sustainable economic growth in the country.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
The strong rise in public debt has been one of the main concerns for economic policy in the recent period. This book provides a theoretical analysis of the dynamics of public debt. It analyses the impact of accumulating debt on the stability of the economy, and examines the implications of several alternative budgetary regimes. In contrast to most analyses of the dynamics of government finance, which start from the neo-classical equilibrium approach, this analysis is inspired by the post-Keynesian theory of disequilibrium growth. It develops a coherent microeconomic model of the growth of the firm in the presence of imperfect capital markets and equity rationing. On the basis of this model the medium-term and long-term dynamics are examined with special reference to the accumulation of public debt and the distribution of income and wealth within the private sector.