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How critical thinking and scientific method can help us to make the right decisions and spot fake news.
Do you know what economists mean when they refer to you as a "rational agent"? Or why a psychologist might label your idea a "creative insight"? After reading this book, you will know how the best and brightest thinkers judge the ways we decide, argue, solve problems, and tell right from wrong.
These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.
Good Thinking is our best defense against anti-vaccine paranoia, climate denial, and other dire threats of today In our ever-more-polarized society, there’s at least one thing we still agree on: The world is overrun with misinformation, faulty logic, and the gullible followers who buy into it all. Of course, we’re not among them—are we? Scientist David Robert Grimes is on a mission to expose the logical fallacies and cognitive biases that drive our discourse on a dizzying array of topics–from vaccination to abortion, 9/11 conspiracy theories to dictatorial doublespeak, astrology to alternative medicine, and wrongful convictions to racism. But his purpose in Good Thinking isn’t to shame or place blame. Rather, it’s to interrogate our own assumptions–to develop our eye for the glimmer of truth in a vast sea of dubious sources–in short, to think critically. Grimes’s expert takedown of irrationality is required reading for anyone wondering why bad thinking persists and how we can defeat it. Ultimately, no one changes anyone else’s mind; we can only change our own–and give others the tools to do the same.
An essential tool for our post-truth world: a witty primer on logic—and the dangers of illogical thinking—by a renowned Notre Dame professor Logic is synonymous with reason, judgment, sense, wisdom, and sanity. Being logical is the ability to create concise and reasoned arguments—arguments that build from given premises, using evidence, to a genuine conclusion. But mastering logical thinking also requires studying and understanding illogical thinking, both to sharpen one’s own skills and to protect against incoherent, or deliberately misleading, reasoning. Elegant, pithy, and precise, Being Logical breaks logic down to its essentials through clear analysis, accessible examples, and focused insights. D. Q. McInerney covers the sources of illogical thinking, from naïve optimism to narrow-mindedness, before dissecting the various tactics—red herrings, diversions, and simplistic reasoning—the illogical use in place of effective reasoning. An indispensable guide to using logic to advantage in everyday life, this is a concise, crisply readable book. Written explicitly for the layperson, McInerny’s Being Logical promises to take its place beside Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style as a classic of lucid, invaluable advice. Praise for Being Logical “Highly readable . . . D. Q. McInerny offers an introduction to symbolic logic in plain English, so you can finally be clear on what is deductive reasoning and what is inductive. And you’ll see how deductive arguments are constructed.”—Detroit Free Press “McInerny’s explanatory outline of sound thinking will be eminently beneficial to expository writers, debaters, and public speakers.”—Booklist “Given the shortage of logical thinking, And the fact that mankind is adrift, if not sinking, It is vital that all of us learn to think straight. And this small book by D.Q. McInerny is great. It follows therefore since we so badly need it, Everybody should not only but it, but read it.” —Charles Osgood
Our daily communication involves argumentation and reasoning, but how well do we prepare students for these tasks? Are they able to persuade others, make solid purchasing decisions, or analyze the messages in the media? In his new book, Good Thinking: Teaching Argument, Persuasion, and Reasoning, Erik Palmer shows teachers of all subject matters how to transform the activities they already use into openings for improving student thinking. He demonstrates how to critically evaluate a point of view, understand rhetorical devises, apply logic, and build an effective argument, written or oral. Blending theory with practice, Palmer shares a wide range of classroom-tested lessons, including:How to understand argument in paintings and images Addressing ad hominem attacks using a traveling debate Creating a class comedy club, where students write syllogisms and analyze character and plot development Teaching logic through a class 'Booger Patrol' Palmer explains complex concepts in simple, practical language that gives teachers a deft understanding of the principles of good arguments, proper use of evidence, persuasive techniques, and rhetorical tricks. He reveals how all students, not just those in advanced classes, can begin developing sophisticated reasoning skills that will improve their oral and written communications, both in and outside of the classroom. '
Despite the fact that youre holding this book in your hands and reading these words, you may at the same time be thinking that you dont really need any book to tell you how to think -- or even to try to teach you how to do it any better than youre already doing it. Perhaps youre even saying to yourself that thinking comes naturally, that you do it all the time, and that you dont need to think about it. Its a no brainer. Or, heres another possibility: could it be that you know that thinking can be hard work, so why even bother wondering why you have this book in your hands? Surely the author of Good Thinking is about to save you all that mental trouble and tell you why youre still reading these words; let him do the work! And so I will (but just this one time): if it is true -- as popular wisdom frequently reminds us -- that a mind is a terrible thing to waste, then the basic belief of this mindful self-improvement book is that what we familiarly call good thinking is what you accomplish when you put your mind to it; in short, if you mind your mind, you can, in fact, become the best possible thinker you can be. To help you improve your present ability as a thinker, Good Thinking is structured to give you both clarity in and practice with the key thinking skills and attitudes that produce everyday good thinking in our personal and professional lives. These skills and attitudes are explained, exemplified, and reinforced throughout the books fourteen manageable chapters with such empowering prompts as Mind Set, What Do You Think?, Reflections, and Assessing Your Thinking. Through structured activities, you will teach yourself how to get your mind to go from Huh? to Hmm to Aha! The subtitle of Good Thinking seeks to tell it as it can be and will be for you if you work with Good Thinking to stimulate your mind to think again! --Robert Eidelberg
This book combines virtue reliabilism with knowledge first epistemology to develop novel accounts of knowledge and justified belief. It is virtue reliabilist in that knowledge and justified belief are accounted for in terms of epistemic ability. It is knowledge first epistemological in that, unlike traditional virtue reliabilism, it does not unpack the notion of epistemic ability as an ability to form true beliefs but as an ability to know, thus offering a definition of justified belief in terms of knowledge. In addition, the book aims to show that this version of knowledge first virtue reliabilism serves to provide novel solutions to a number of core epistemological problems and, as a result, compares favourably with alternative versions of virtue reliabilism both in the traditionalist and in the knowledge first camp. This is the first ever book-length development of knowledge first virtue reliabilism, and it will contribute to recent debates in these two growing areas of epistemology.