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This paper presents an assessment of the shift in market risks to the household sector, which results from changes in the behavior of financial institutions and from pension reform. It focuses on household saving and asset allocation behavior and analyzes how such behavior may be affected by changes to household risk profiles. It examines the products and services that the financial industry has developed, or may need to develop, to help households meet these new challenges. The paper also discusses possible public policy initiatives on the promotion of a broader range of payout instruments and structures.
This paper analyzes aspects of global asset allocation. It examines how different institutional investors follow vastly different procedures when allocating assets, reflecting various time horizons, liability structures, and “cultural backgrounds.” It aims to provide some insight into the decision-making process of investors. The paper highlights that understanding the basis for investor decisions is useful when analyzing their asset allocation decisions and related capital flows across borders and asset classes. The paper also discusses the implications for financial stability of proposals and potential changes in accounting policy.
This paper describes financial stability considerations related to trends in accounting standards. The paper highlights that in recent years, financial stability is generally viewed by authorities as having improved, in large part through more proactive risk management activities by banks and the related transfer and dispersion of risks from banks to diverse nonbanking institutions, which often have longer-term liability structures. This paper presents a balanced review of the relevant policy issues, and raises questions related to financial stability that policymakers may consider as accounting standards are being reviewed.
The Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR), published twice a year by the IMF, provides timely analysis of developments in mature and emerging market countries and seeks to identify potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis. The GFSR aims to deepen its readers’ understanding of global capital flows, which play a critical role as an engine of world economic growth. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The Global Financial Stability Report was created to provide a more frequent assessment of global financial markets and to address emerging market financing in a global context. The report focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues of financial imbalances, and of a structural nature, that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. The GFSR focuses on relevant contemporary issues, not attempting to be a comprehensive survey of all potential risks. It also draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. It regularly contains, as a special feature, articles on structural or systemic issues relevant to international financial stability.
This September 2005 issue of the Global Financial Stability Report highlights that financial conditions have remained broadly positive over the past six months, but some market developments diverged from consensus expectations of market participants. Long-term interest rates, instead of rising, as expected by some investors, have moderated, leading to a further flattening of global yield curves. This reflected cyclical factors, as market participants seemed to expect more moderate global growth and inflation, and structural factors such as a secular portfolio shift toward long-term bonds by pension funds and life insurance companies.
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) provides expert and up-to-date analysis of global capital flows that play a critical role in world economic growth and Financial stability. The report focuses on current conditions in global Financial markets, analyzing Financial imbalances and structural issues that could pose risks to stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for communicating the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The GFSR also draws out the Financial ramifcations of economic imbalances highlighted by the WEO, making it an indispensable companion publication.
The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.