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Many aspects of the global economic crisis remain unclear, especially the ability of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) to reduce their operating deficits and debt. In particular, one major concern for those focused on climate change is the extent to which the financial crisis has impacted the United States’ and EU’s ability and willingness to invest in and help develop renewable energy technology around the world. This is a serious concern since there is now a consensus that climate change is human-induced. Equally important, there is a need to reduce the non-climate impacts of energy generation, provide employment, and reduce global poverty. According to the International Monetary Fund for the period 2000–2009, fiscal dependency in the majority of GCC nations increased from the previous decade whereby hydrocarbons account for almost 90 percent of revenues and 80 percent of exports (hydrocarbon exports as a share of total exports). This increase in dependency on hydrocarbons comes from the increase in oil prices over the past decade. The exception to this trend in the GCC is the UAE where hydrocarbons have fallen to about 60 percent of total exports and their share in revenue has also fallen. While renewable energy to date in GCC nations is not large in terms of total installed capacity, very important plans and projects are now being put in to place. While each nation has specific circumstances, as a whole, the GCC has been able to adequately cope with the negative effects of the financial crisis with an expected 2012 growth rate of six percent for the region. The UAE holds more than seven percent of the world’s total oil and three percent of proven natural gas reserves and is ranked the seventh in the world in both resources; most of the oil (94 percent) is in Abu Dhabi. Notwithstanding these oil and gas reserves, the UAE aims to produce seven percent of its electricity from renewables by 2020. Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s government-owned renewable energy firm, has the ambitious goal of making Abu Dhabi the preeminent source of renewable energy knowledge, development, implementation and the world’s benchmark for sustainable development.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Contents: (1) Recent Developments and Analysis; (2) The Global Financial Crisis and U.S. Interests: Policy; Four Phases of the Global Financial Crisis; (3) New Challenges and Policy in Managing Financial Risk; (4) Origins, Contagion, and Risk; (5) Effects on Emerging Markets: Latin America; Russia and the Financial Crisis; (6) Effects on Europe and The European Response: The ¿European Framework for Action¿; The British Rescue Plan; Collapse of Iceland¿s Banking Sector; (7) Impact on Asia and the Asian Response: Asian Reserves and Their Impact; National Responses; (8) International Policy Issues: Bretton Woods II; G-20 Meetings; The International Monetary Fund; Changes in U.S. Reg¿s. and Regulatory Structure; (9) Legislation.
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
An original and empirically grounded analysis of the Gulf monarchies and their role in shaping the political economy of the Middle East.
According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.
This book provides an overview of the origins, repercussions and projected future of the ongoing Gulf crisis, as well as an analysis of the major issues and debates relating to it. The Gulf region witnessed an extraordinary rift when, on 5 June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cut all diplomatic ties and imposed a siege on the State of Qatar following the hacking of the Qatar News Agency website. This book approaches the Gulf crisis from an interdisciplinary perspective by bringing together a group of top scholars from a wide range of disciplines and areas of expertise to engage in a nuanced debate on the current crisis. With the pressing role of media in general and social media in particular, new political realities have been created in the region. The book addresses the role that cyber and information security play on politics, as well as the shift of alliances in the region as a result of the crisis. It scrutinizes the role of media and information technology in creating political cultures as well as conflicts. The book also explores the long-term economic implications of the siege imposed on Qatar and identifies how the country's economy is adjusting to the impact of the siege. Thus, the book considers the extent of social and economic changes that the crisis has brought to the region. This book invites in-depth understanding of the regional crisis and its implications on nation building and the reconfiguration of political and economic alliances across the region. It will appeal to a broad interdisciplinary readership in the area of Gulf studies.