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Recent volatility in agricultural commodity prices and projections of world population growth raise concerns about the ability of global agricultural production to meet future demand. This report explores the potential for future agricultural production to 2050, using a model-based analysis that incorporates the key drivers of agricultural production, along with the responses of producers and consumers to changes to those drivers. Model results show that for a percentage change in population, global production and consumption of major field crops respond at nearly the same rate. In response to a change in per capita income, the per-centage change in crop consumption is much lower, about one-third the percentage change in income. The model also suggests that the global economy absorbs changes in agricultural productivity growth through compensating responses in yield, cropland area, crop prices, and international trade.
Recent volatility in agricultural commodity prices and projections of world population growth raise concerns about the ability of global agricultural production to meet future demand. This report explores the potential for future agricultural production to 2050, using a model-based analysis that incorporates the key drivers of agricultural production, along with the responses of producers and consumers to changes to those drivers. Model results show that for a percentage change in population, global production and consumption of major field crops respond at nearly the same rate. In response to a change in per capita income, the percentage change in crop consumption is much lower, about one-third the percentage change in income. The model also suggests that the global economy absorbs changes in agricultural productivity growth through compensating responses in yield, cropland area, crop prices, and international trade.
An understanding of food demand and food trends across countries and the ability to predict potential shifts in demand for different food products is an invaluable tool for all individuals involved in the agricultural sector. In a 2003 report, International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns, ERS and collaborating economists estimated income and price elasticities of demand for broad consumption categoriessuch as food, clothing, education, and other goodsand for food categories such as cereals, meats, and dairy across 114 countries using 1996 International Comparison Program (ICP) data. These elasticities measure the degree to which consumption changes when prices or incomes change. This book provides an update on the International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns using the 2005 International Date Program Data; and discusses global drivers of agricultural demand and supply.
This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages. The projections cover supply and demand for the major agricultural commodities and sectors, including fisheries and forestry. This analysis forms the basis for a more detailed examination of other factors, such as nutrition and undernourishment, and the implications for international trade. The report also investigates the implications of future supply and demand for the natural resource base and discusses how technology can contribute to more sustainable development. One of the report's main findings is that, if no corrective action is taken, the target set by the World Food Summit in 1996 (that of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015) is not going to be met. Nothing short of a massive effort at improving the overall development performance will free the developing world of its most pressing food insecurity problems. The progress made towards this target depends on many factors, not least of which are political will and the mobilization of additional resources. Past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the development process, particularly where the majority of the population still depends on this sector for employment and income.
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Globalization of the food supply has created conditions favorable for the emergence, reemergence, and spread of food-borne pathogens-compounding the challenge of anticipating, detecting, and effectively responding to food-borne threats to health. In the United States, food-borne agents affect 1 out of 6 individuals and cause approximately 48 million illnesses, 128,000 hospitalizations, and 3,000 deaths each year. This figure likely represents just the tip of the iceberg, because it fails to account for the broad array of food-borne illnesses or for their wide-ranging repercussions for consumers, government, and the food industry-both domestically and internationally. A One Health approach to food safety may hold the promise of harnessing and integrating the expertise and resources from across the spectrum of multiple health domains including the human and veterinary medical and plant pathology communities with those of the wildlife and aquatic health and ecology communities. The IOM's Forum on Microbial Threats hosted a public workshop on December 13 and 14, 2011 that examined issues critical to the protection of the nation's food supply. The workshop explored existing knowledge and unanswered questions on the nature and extent of food-borne threats to health. Participants discussed the globalization of the U.S. food supply and the burden of illness associated with foodborne threats to health; considered the spectrum of food-borne threats as well as illustrative case studies; reviewed existing research, policies, and practices to prevent and mitigate foodborne threats; and, identified opportunities to reduce future threats to the nation's food supply through the use of a "One Health" approach to food safety. Improving Food Safety Through a One Health Approach: Workshop Summary covers the events of the workshop and explains the recommendations for future related workshops.
Agribusiness offers a unique introduction to the business of agriculture: what agribusiness is, why it matters, what the role of technology is, how trade fits into the picture, what its key risks are, who is lending and investing and why, and what returns they are getting. It is both practical in orientation – focusing on the role of managers in the industry as well as that of lenders and investors – and international in scope – drawing on case studies and interviews with key figures all over the world. The text ranges across various agricultural commodities to stress that there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution and successful management, lending or investment in agribusiness requires understanding specifics. Readers are introduced to the economics of the supply and demand of food, the role of agricultural trade, agricultural marketing and farm management along with key business aspects including: Main drivers of agribusiness value; Principal risks of agribusinesses; Agribusiness as an investment class; and Agribusiness lending: why, who and how. This engaging textbook offers a complete guide to the international business of agriculture which is ideal for all students, scholars and practitioners. A selection of eResources is also available to supplement this text, and instructors will find PowerPoint slides, discussion questions, case studies and further teaching materials available to them.