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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.
Downscaling is a widely used technique for translating information from large-scale climate models to the spatial and temporal scales needed to assess local and regional climate impacts, vulnerability, risk and resilience. This book is a comprehensive guide to the downscaling techniques used for climate data. A general introduction of the science of climate modeling is followed by a discussion of techniques, models and methodologies used for producing downscaled projections, and the advantages, disadvantages and uncertainties of each. The book provides detailed information on dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques in non-technical language, as well as recommendations for selecting suitable downscaled datasets for different applications. The use of downscaled climate data in national and international assessments is also discussed using global examples. This is a practical guide for graduate students and researchers working on climate impacts and adaptation, as well as for policy makers and practitioners interested in climate risk and resilience.
A three-tier approach is presented: (i) fundamental dynamical concepts of climate processes, (ii) their mathematical formulation based on balance equations, and (iii) the necessary numerical techniques to solve these equations. This book showcases the global energy balance of the climate system and feedback processes that determine the climate sensitivity, initial-boundary value problems, energy transport in the climate system, large-scale ocean circulation and abrupt climate change.
In response to a request from Congress, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years assesses the state of scientific efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records for Earth during approximately the last 2,000 years and the implications of these efforts for our understanding of global climate change. Because widespread, reliable temperature records are available only for the last 150 years, scientists estimate temperatures in the more distant past by analyzing "proxy evidence," which includes tree rings, corals, ocean and lake sediments, cave deposits, ice cores, boreholes, and glaciers. Starting in the late 1990s, scientists began using sophisticated methods to combine proxy evidence from many different locations in an effort to estimate surface temperature changes during the last few hundred to few thousand years. This book is an important resource in helping to understand the intricacies of global climate change.
Global Physical Climatology is an introductory text devoted to the fundamental physical principles and problems of climate sensitivity and change. Addressing some of the most critical issues in climatology, this text features incisive coverage of topics that are central to understanding orbital parameter theory for past climate changes, and for anthropogenic and natural causes of near-future changes--Key Features* Covers the physics of climate change* Examines the nature of the current climate and its previous changes* Explores the sensitivity of climate and the mechanisms by which humans are likely to produce near-future climate changes* Provides instructive end-of-chapter exercises and appendices
As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book assists the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. The accompanying CD contains: A suite of resources for those wishing to learn more about climate modelling. A range of model visualisations. Data from climate models for use in the classroom. Windows and Macintosh programs for an Energy Balance Model. Selected figures from the book for inclusion in presentations and lectures. Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions.
Syukuro Manabe is perhaps the leading pioneer of modern climate modeling. Beyond Global Warming is his compelling firsthand account of how the scientific community came to understand the human causes of climate change, and how numerical models using the world's most powerful computers have been instrumental to these vital discoveries. Joined here by atmospheric scientist Anthony Broccoli, Manabe shows how climate models have been used as virtual laboratories for examining the complex planetary interactions of atmosphere, ocean, and land. Manabe and Broccoli use these studies as the basis for a broader discussion of human-induced global warming--and what the future may hold for a warming planet. They tell the stories of early trailblazers such as Svante Arrhenius, the legendary Swedish scientist who created the first climate model of Earth more than a century ago, and provide rare insights into Manabe's own groundbreaking work over the past five decades. Expertly walking readers through key breakthroughs, they explain why increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide has caused temperatures to rise in the troposphere yet fall in the stratosphere, why the warming of the planet's surface differs by hemisphere, why drought is becoming more frequent in arid regions despite the global increase in precipitation, and much more.
As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling.
This book sets forth the physical, mathematical, and numerical foundations of computer models used to understand and predict the global ocean climate system. Aimed at students and researchers of ocean and climate science who seek to understand the physical content of ocean model equations and numerical methods for their solution, it is largely general in formulation and employs modern mathematical techniques. It also highlights certain areas of cutting-edge research. Stephen Griffies presents material that spans a broad spectrum of issues critical for modern ocean climate models. Topics are organized into parts consisting of related chapters, with each part largely self-contained. Early chapters focus on the basic equations arising from classical mechanics and thermodynamics used to rationalize ocean fluid dynamics. These equations are then cast into a form appropriate for numerical models of finite grid resolution. Basic discretization methods are described for commonly used classes of ocean climate models. The book proceeds to focus on the parameterization of phenomena occurring at scales unresolved by the ocean model, which represents a large part of modern oceanographic research. The final part provides a tutorial on the tensor methods that are used throughout the book, in a general and elegant fashion, to formulate the equations.