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This paper presents GMMET, the Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition, and provides documentation of the model structure, data sources and model properties. GMMET is a large-scale, dynamic, non-linear, microfounded multicountry model whose purpose is to analyze the short- and medium-term macroeconomic impact of curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model provides a detailed description of GHG-emitting activities (related to both fossil fuel and non-fossil-fuel processes) and their interaction with the rest of the economy. To better capture real world obstacles of the energy transition, GMMET features a granular modelling of electricity generation (capturing the intermittency of renewables), transportation (capturing network externalities between charging stations and electric vehicle adoption), and fossil fuel mining (replicating estimated supply elasticities at various time horizons). The model also features a rich set of policy tools for the energy transition, including taxation of GHG emissions, various subsidies, and regulations.
Managing the climate transition presents policymakers with a tradeoff between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, which calls for a fiscal balancing act with the right mix of policies. This paper develops a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the fiscal impacts of various climate policy packages aimed at reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. Our simulations show that relying primarily on spending measures to deliver on climate ambitions will be costly, possibly raising debt by 45-50 percent of GDP by 2050. However, a balanced mix of carbon-pricing and spending-based policies can deliver on net zero with a much smaller fiscal cost, limiting the increase in public debt to 10-15 percent of GDP by 2050. Carbon pricing is central not only as an effective tool for emissions reduction but also as a revenue source. Delaying carbon pricing action could increase costs, especially if less effective measures are scaled up to meet climate targets. Technology spillovers can reduce the costs but bottlenecks in green investment could unwind the gains and slow the transition.
The U.S. economy has proven resilient in the face of the significant tightening of both fiscal and monetary policy in 2022. Consumer demand has held up particularly well, boosted initially by a drawdown of pent-up savings and, more recently, by solid growth in real disposable incomes. Policy restraint is expected to continue to slow the economy in 2023 with a modest pick-up in momentum later in 2024. Unemployment is expected to rise slowly to close to 41⁄2 percent by end-2024.
The IMF’s Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition (GMMET) is applied to assess the climate-related measures in the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Explicitly accouting for corporate income tax funding and assuming no permitting delays for energy-related investment, the measures are expected to cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 710 MMT by 2030, predominantly driven by more electricity generation from renewables combined with a rising share of electric vehicles. Aggregate output and inflation are not impacted significantly, while the fiscal costs amount to about $700 billion through 2030 (another $120 billion of fixed grants and loans are not modelled). In the presence of investment delays from permitting, emission cuts would be reduced by about a third. We also show that the IRA leaves room for sizable additional emission abatement at very low costs; by targeting electricity generation from coal and methane emissions from oil and gas industries.
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Mathematics has become indispensable in the modelling of economics, finance, business and management. Without expecting any particular background of the reader, this book covers the following mathematical topics, with frequent reference to applications in economics and finance: functions, graphs and equations, recurrences (difference equations), differentiation, exponentials and logarithms, optimisation, partial differentiation, optimisation in several variables, vectors and matrices, linear equations, Lagrange multipliers, integration, first-order and second-order differential equations. The stress is on the relation of maths to economics, and this is illustrated with copious examples and exercises to foster depth of understanding. Each chapter has three parts: the main text, a section of further worked examples and a summary of the chapter together with a selection of problems for the reader to attempt. For students of economics, mathematics, or both, this book provides an introduction to mathematical methods in economics and finance that will be welcomed for its clarity and breadth.
Written by one of the world's leading experts, Handbook of yarn production: technology, science and economics is an authoritative and comprehensive guide to textile yarn manufacturing. The book is designed to allow readers to explore the subject in various levels of detail. The first three chapters provide an overview of yarn production, products and key principles. The major part of the book then reviews in detail the production processes for short-staple, long-staple and filament yarns.There are also chapters on quality control and the economics of staple-yarn production.The final part of the book consists of a series of appendices which provide in-depth analysis of key topics with detailed technical data and worked examples which is an invaluable reference in itself for anyone concerned with the behaviour, performance and economics of a textile mill.Handbook of yarn production: technology, science and economics is a standard work for both yarn manufacturers and those researching and studying in this important area of the textile industry. - A practical and authoritative new handbook for yarn manufacturing - Shows how problems can arise and how to deal with them - Includes invaluable technical data, calculations, worked examples and case studies
Tax Policy for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
This paper provides an overview of the design of means-tested Guaranteed Minimum Income schemes, which constitute an important component of social protection systems in European countries. It discusses how key design features differ across countries, including how countries balance the primary objective of poverty alleviation against the desire to both manage the work disincentives inherent in such programs and contain fiscal cost. The analysis finds a clear trade-off between both concerns in practice, with many countries combining low generosity with low benefit withdrawal rates (BWRs) thus prioritizing employment incentives over the primary objective of poverty alleviation. Many countries can reduce this trade off by combining higher generosity with higher BWRs. Countries with very high BWRs should consider reducing these, including through allowing income disregards and time dependent (rather than income-dependent) benefit withdrawal. The work disincentives associated with higher BWRs can also be attenuated through strengthening complementary activation policies that incentivize and support participation in the labor market.