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Military recruitment will become more difficult in times of demographic aging. The question arises whether demographic change will constrain the capacity of aging states like Germany to conduct foreign policy and pursue their national security interests. Since contemporary military operations still display a strong human element, particular scrutiny is given to the empirical analysis of the determinants of military propensity and military service among youth. An additional human capital projection until 2030 illustrates how the decline in the youth population will interact with trends in educational attainment and adolescent health to further complicate military recruitment in the future. A concluding review of recruiting practices in other NATO countries provides insight in best-practice policy options to reduce the military’s sensitivity to demographic change. Following this approach, the book gives prominence to a topic that has thus far been under-represented in the greater discussion of demographic change today, namely the demographic impact on international affairs and strategic calculations.
Currently, scholars and political leaders are facing various global challenges: failing states, conflicts over distribution, terrorism and the refugee crisis represent only some of them. In this book, acclaimed experts from Germany and abroad offer a panorama of the international security threats of the 21st century. With a particular focus on the role of Germany, these experts present strategic approaches through which these challenges can be tackled in the most effective and sensible way, thus providing new impulses for the security policy debate in Germany.
This paper examines the current reform of the German Armed Forces and how reorganization is being influenced by new threats and a new security policy. The author argues that the transformation of the Bundeswehr is in line with Germany's expanded security role and reflects an appropriate adjustment to post-Cold War realities. However, there are concerns that an inadequate defense budget may prevent Germany from attaining its stated reform goals and fulfilling its commitments to the European Union and NATO. Section I, Changes and New Centers of Gravity in Germany's Security Policy, examines the fall of the Berlin Wall and its consequences, NATO's new challenges and commitments, the basic principles and interests of Germany's Security Policy, and consequences of the reform. Section II, Transforming the Bundeswehr, discusses its current mission and tasks, the debate over compulsory military service, new capabilities and structure, modernizing the equipment of the Bundeswehr, and the bottom line of the reform. Section III, Integrating New Capabilities into European and NATO Commitments, examines contributions to the European Headline Goal, the Prague Capabilities Commitment, and German contributions to current international operations.
This book provides an up-to-date summary of the consequences of demographic aging for labor markets, financial markets, economic growth, social security schemes and public finances in Germany, essentially reflecting the present state of knowledge in any of these areas. All contributions are written by leading experts in their fields and are based on results that emerge at the forefront of current research.
Bringing together leading scholars from across the world, this comprehensive Research Handbook analyses key problems, subjects, regions, and countries in civil-military relations. Showcasing cutting-edge research developments, it illustrates the deeply complex nature of the field and analyses important topics in need of renewed consideration.
This thesis explores the changing demographic picture in France and Germany and how it may affect U.S. national security in the near future. while demographics are only one set of the many forces driving changes in the way the United States and Western Europe interact and cooperate, they have the potential to fundamentally change the way Western Europe shapes and implements its security policies around the world. This thesis examines how demographic trends in Western Europe, particularly France and Germany, will affect those countries' abilities to fund and man viable military forces. The analysis includes topics such as immigration, terrorism, the importation of foreign conflicts, and increased nationalistic xenophobia. Finally it examines the implications these demographic changes will have on U.S. national security, in particular the willingness of France and Germany to act as U.S. allies and their ability to invest in defense spending. It concludes that while they are radically changing their force posture, France and Germany will continue to rely on the U.S. military for European security. Also, if Western Europe's social welfare programs are not significantly reformed, demographic forces will necessitate further decreases in defense spending.
"Berlin, 12 January 2030 - The crisis worsens. The Chancellor reaches for the telephone. He instructs his anteroom to put through a call to Germany's most important ally in order to discuss the situation and determine a further course of action." With whom would the chancellor speak? With the American, the French, or maybe even the Russian president? Or will the Chancellor only exercise representative functions while the real responsibility and decision-making authority lies with the President of the United Regions of Europe? This volume invites policy makers and politicians to use their imagination, to look beyond current events and take a long-term view on possible developments. Such projections, the author argues, lead to interesting conclusions for strategic planning.