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This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
The U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward. Concerns about meeting increasing demand with finite resources have renewed interest in an old question: How long can the oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -- a peak -- from which it can only decline? The author: (1) examined when oil production could peak; (2) assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; & (3) examined fed. agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequences. Includes recommendations. Charts & tables.
Substantial evidence suggests that we are currently living at the peak of oil production with few prospects for cheap oil ever returning. Yet the media, politicians and regular people have hardly started to talk about what this means. Oil literally runs our societies from transportation to food production to economic activity. Without oil, everything stops. There are powerful arguments that if we fail to increase oil production, we will also fail to grow our economy as a whole. For oil importing western nations the news is bleak; higher oil prices seem to put a glass ceiling on their economic growth, making current debt problems worse no matter what monetary and economic policies we might choose. The World After Cheap Oil offers a thorough package of information about oil; its uses and its role in our society’s important sectors. It presents the most prominent substitutes and alternatives, and their limits and promises. It also delves deep into the many risks, problems and mechanisms that can make the world after cheap oil a much more unstable place for nations and humanity as a whole. The book also explains why there has been so little public debate on the subject, and what the future might look like after oil production starts its final, terminal decline.
After the collapse of the Soviet system, the immense problems of environmental pollution in Central and Eastern Europe were widely publicized. Less well known were its effects on health in the region, which have led to a serious health crisis. This report examines the degree to which the pollution adversely affected human health, putting it in the context of other health determinants such as socioeconomic factors, health care standards and availability, and lifestyle factors. Among the numerous pollutants, the report points to lead, dust, toxic gases, and nitrates in rural water supplies as having a significant impact on health in Central and Eastern Europe. The author suggests possible avenues for international action. However, an analysis of the determinants of health reveals that addressing the pollution problems alone will not solve the health crisis. Improving health in this region will depend on the changing economic fortunes of individual countries and the ability of each to create a supportive social environment for its citizens.