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The Arab region is often perceived in terms of its negatives rather than its achievements. The cradle of Judaism, Christianity and Islam is nowadays mostly discussed in the context of problems related to rising religious fundamentalism, political instability due in part to the Arab-Israeli conflict or the persistent low status of women. The first Arab Human Development Report listed three deficits impeding human advancement in Arab countries, these were: knowledge acquisition and effective utilization; human rights, freedom and good governance; and woman’s empowerment. The demographic perspective on the Arab region again has tended to focused on the negative, with most studies ranging from uncontrollable immigration to untamable high fertility. Our perspective will first of all examine the differences in terms of demographic paths existing in the 22 countries that make up the Arab world, as well as any convergence occurring at different levels. While the notion that there is a unique and unchanging demographic pattern that is specifically Arab – one of universally high fertility that does not decline – is no longer tenable, the countries in the region are sufficiently similar to each other and distinct from their neighbors to be meaningfully discussed together. This is not to lose sight of the fact that “modernity, cultural openness, the relations between men and women, the effects of economic crisis and of development all vary from one sub-population to another, in North Africa and the Middle East, as elsewhere in the world.” The population projections by the United Nations Population Division essentially assume that fertility will steadily decline in the Arab region as it has elsewhere in the world. In the medium term, despite secular trends in declining fertility and mortality, there will in some respects be even greater demographic heterogeneity in the Arab region than is currently the case. As a result of this heterogeneity, the challenges posed by demographic change in the Arab region are more diverse than the attention to “youth bulges” suggests. It should not distract from the fact that a large number of Arab countries, in the GCC area, the Mashreq and North Africa, will within one generation already enter a phase characterized by progressive population ageing. Because of the rapid future growth in the number of elderly, the overall dependency ratio in the GCC area and Arab North Africa as a whole will, despite falling fertility, not drop much below current levels. This throws an under-appreciated light on the problem of very low participation rates in the labor market. Increasing economic opportunities for today’s youth are not just imperative to meet their own current needs for transitioning to productive and fully “adult” members of society, but also to ensure future sustainability.
This report, the outcome of a series of meetings of the Arab Foresight Group, an initiative undertaken by the EUISS, presents three alternative scenarios for the Arab world in 2025. These take into account those 'megatrends' which are unlikely to change, and outline three different ways in which policymakers can respond to the crises that currently beset the Middle East and North Africa.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.
Comparing demographic trends in Europe and the NAME-region (North Africa and the Middle East), this book demonstrates how population change interacts with changing economic landscapes, social distinctions and political realities. It also provides food for thought for those who are looking for a nuanced perspective on the background and future perspectives of demographic developments in Europe, for a discussion of recent demographic and political realities in the NAME countries, and for those who analyse the effects of contrasting demographic regimes on migration flows to and migration politics in Europe.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Liberation Technology brings together cutting-edge scholarship from scholars and practitioners at the forefront of this burgeoning field of study. An introductory section defines the debate with a foundational piece on liberation technology and is then followed by essays discussing the popular dichotomy of liberation'' versus "control" with regard to the Internet and the sociopolitical dimensions of such controls. Additional chapters delve into the cases of individual countries: China, Egypt, Iran, and Tunisia.
This volume reviews the public health concerns and challenges specific to the complex Arab world from a multidisciplinary perspective.
Young people in the Middle East (15–29 years old) constitute about one-third of the region's population. Growth rates for this age group trail only sub-Saharan Africa. This presents the region with an historic opportunity to build a lasting foundation for prosperity by harnessing the full potential of its young population. Yet young people in the Middle East face severe economic and social exclusion due to substandard education, high unemployment, and poverty. Thus the inclusion of youth is the most critical development challenge facing the Middle East today. A Generation in Waiting portrays the plight of young people, urging greater investment designed to improve the lives of this critical group. It brings together perspectives from the Maghreb to the Levant. Each chapter addresses the complex challenges facing young people in many areas of their lives: access to decent education, opportunities for quality employment, availability of housing and credit, and transitioning to marriage and family formation. This volume presents policy implications and sets an agenda for economic development, creating a more hopeful future for this and future generations in the Middle East. Selected contributors include Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota), Brahim Boudarbat (University of Montreal), Jad Chaaban (American University in Beirut), Nader Kabbani (Syria Trust for Development), Taher Kanaan (Jordan Center for Public Policy Research and Dialogue), Djavad Salehi-Isfahani (Wolfensohn Center for Development and Virginia Tech), and Edward Sayre (University of Southern Mississippi).