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This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Front Cover -- About Island Press -- Subscribe -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- 1. Will the Transportation Revolutions Improve Our Lives-- or Make Them Worse? -- 2. Electric Vehicles: Approaching the Tipping Point -- 3. Shared Mobility: The Potential of Ridehailing and Pooling -- 4. Vehicle Automation: Our Best Shot at a Transportation Do-Over? -- 5. Upgrading Transit for the Twenty-First Century -- 6. Bridging the Gap between Mobility Haves and Have-Nots -- 7. Remaking the Auto Industry -- 8. The Dark Horse: Will China Win the Electric, Automated, Shared Mobility Race? -- Epilogue -- Notes -- About the Contributors -- Index -- IP Board of Directors
This edited volume discuses urban transport issues, policies, and initiatives in twelve of the world’s major emerging economies – Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam - countries with large populations that have recently experienced large changes in urban structure, motorization and all the associated social, economic, and environmental impacts in positive and negative senses. Contributions on each of these twelve countries focus on one or more major cities per country. This book aims to fill a gap in the transport literature that is crucial to understanding the needs of a large portion of the world’s urban population, especially in view of the southward shift in economic power. Readers will develop a better understanding of urban transport problems and policies in nations where development levels are below those of richer countries (mainly in the northern hemisphere) but where the rate of economic growth is often increasing at a faster rate than the wealthiest nations.
Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The methods of discrete choice analysis and their applications in the modelling of transportation systems constitute a comparatively new field that has largely evolved over the past 15 years. Since its inception, however, the field has developed rapidly, and this is the first text and reference work to cover the material systematically, bringing together the scattered and often inaccessible results for graduate students and professionals. Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The introductory chapter presents the background of discrete choice analysis and context of transportation demand forecasting. Subsequent chapters cover, among other topics, the theories of individual choice behavior, binary and multinomial choice models, aggregate forecasting techniques, estimation methods, tests used in the process of model development, sampling theory, the nested-logit model, and systems of models. Discrete Choice Analysis is ninth in the MIT Press Series in Transportation Studies, edited by Marvin Manheim.
How do people behave in different traffic situations? Are there general laws for mathematical modelling of decision dynamics? The answers, given at the first international workshop on "Human Behaviour in Traffic Networks", are presented in this volume. In 13 articles, well-known experts report about their current work on experiments and modelling in this area. The topics range from psychological behaviour in traffic situations, traffic simulations of various aspects and market analysis to experiments with human participants used in experimental economics. The articles filled with many illustrations are aimed at interested students as well as experts in this field.