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Abstract.
Forest industries represent an important segment of the Soviet economy, accounting for five percent of the total industrial output and providing essential materials for other key industries. This book, the first in-depth study of Soviet forestry in the English language, looks at the organizational, planning, economic, and technological aspects of the industry. Mr. Blandon first discusses labor force trends and geographical features of the country's forest resources, then assesses the forest industry's modernization program. He analyzes the past performance of capital investment in the industry and makes projections about the effects of future investments in order to estimate the Soviet Union's future timber output. Throughout the book considerable attention is devoted to the Soviet planning system and its influence on decision making.
Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, volume, products demand and supply, international trade, prices, and value added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America, and selected countries. Scenario A1B presents a 5.5-fold increase in world fuelwood use that leads to high prices of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, driven by especially strong demand in Asia for large imports from South America and Europe. World roundwood consumption reaches 11.2 billion m3 in 2060, exceeding the increment of forests, particularly in Asia. Even under scenarios A2 and B2, the harvest in Asia is unsustainable. However, scenario A1B and a low fuelwood demand lead to a global harvest of 3.6 billion m3 only and to a sustainable forest volume. The world consumption of manufactured wood products grows modestly under most scenarios, with slight changes in prices. Consumption and value added in industries increases more rapidly in Asia, due to the fast economic growth of China and India in all scenarios. As a result, Asia is a large importer of industrial roundwood from South America and Europe and of paper and paperboard from Europe and North America.