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Transition to a market economy is a lengthy process comprised of various spheres of economic activities. The naive belief that a market economy can be introduced by "shock therapy" is wrong, and in several cases, when attempted, has caused more problems than it has solved. Because a market economy requires adequate institutional structures and an appropriate behavior, transition can be executed only in a gradual manner, since these are very gradual processes based upon new organizations, new laws, and the changing behavior of various economic entities. In 1989, influential financial organizations, political bodies, and professional economists seemed to agree upon main points for economic policy reform. This was termed the Washington consensus. Despite the fact that the economic policy of the Washington consensus was initially developed without any concern for post-socialist transformation, it has happened that these ideas have significantly influenced the path of thought and action in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Because these policies were not intended for the overhaul of post-socialist countries, however, they have failed. A new, post-Washington consensus is developing, as it should, based on the lessons learned from experience thus far. Some major policy conclusions can be drawn: First, institutional arrangements are the most important factor for progress toward durable growth. Second, policy must recognize that institution building by its nature must be a gradual process. Third, policy makers must acknowledge that the size of the government is less important than the quality of its policy and the manner of the changes of government dimension. Fourth, if institutional arrangement is neglected and left to the spontaneous processes and unleashed forces of liberalized markets, then informal institutionalization fills the systemic vacuum. Fifth, in transition economies' policies must transform and streamline the judiciary system to serve the market economy. Sixth, a shift of competence and power from the central government to local governments is necessary for deregulation of the post-socialist economy. Seventh, there is an urgent necessity to accelerate the development of non-government organizations. Eight, during transition income policy and government concern for equitable growth has great meaning. Ninth, short-term capital liberalization must be monitored and controlled by the countries' fiscal and monetary authorities with the support of international financial institutions. Tenth, the Bretton Woods organizations should reconsider their policies toward transition economies aiming at institutional building and support for equitable growth.
This paper analyzes fiscal reforms in transition economies during the decade leading up to 1998. The paper argues that macroeconomic stabilization, price liberalization and privatization—the core reforms visualized by the shock therapy approach—are necessary but not sufficient conditions for a complete transition to a market economy. Further deep changes—such as the creation of new fiscal institutions, changes in incentives and processes, and changes in the role of government—are needed.
This paper analyzes fiscal reforms in transition economies during the decade leading up to 1998. The paper argues that macroeconomic stabilization, price liberalization and privatization--he core reforms visualized by the shock therapy approach--are necessary but not sufficient conditions for a complete transition to a market economy. Further deep changes--such as the creation of new fiscal institutions, changes in incentives and processes, and changes in the role of government--are needed.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
When communism fell in 1989, the question for most Eastern European countries was not whether to go to a market economy, but how to get there. Several years later, the difficult process of privatization and restructuring continues to concern the countries of the region. The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volumes 1 and 2 is an analysis of the experiences of various countries making the transition to market economies and examines the most important challenges still in store. Volume 1, Country Studies, gives an in-depth, country-by-country analysis of various reform experiences, including historical backgrounds and discussions of policies and results to date. The countries analyzed are Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, eastern Germany, Slovenia, and Russia. Written by leading economists, some of whom helped shape local and national reforms, this volume identifies common progress, common difficulties, and tentative solutions to the problems of economic transition. Volume 2, Restructuring, focuses on specific issues of transition, including how to design labor market institutions, privatization, new fiscal structures, and bankruptcy laws; how to reorganize foreign trade; and how to promote foreign direct investment. The articles, written by experts in the field, will be of direct help to those involved in the transition process. These volumes provide a standard reference on economic transition in the region for policymakers in Eastern Europe and in western countries, for international agencies concerned with the transition process, and for anyone interested in learning about the dramatic changes that have recently occurred in Eastern Europe.
'Frank Bönker has done a masterful job. . . This is probably the best book available on this important subject. and its significance is not limited to studies of postcommunist societies. It has important theoretical implications for everyone interested in the Political Economy of Policy Reform perspective within the field of comparative political economy.' - John L. Campbell, Slavic Review
This thought-provoking book investigates the political and economic transformation that has taken place over the past three decades in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Through an examination of both the successes and shortcomings of post communist reform and the challenges ahead for the region, it explores the topical issues of economic transition and integration, and highlights lessons to be learned.
The past 25 years have seen a dramatic transformation in Europe’s former communist countries, resulting in their reintegration with the global economy, and, in most cases, major improvements in living standards. But the task of building full market economies has been difficult and protracted. Liberalization of trade and prices came quickly, but institutional reforms—such as governance reform, competition policy, privatization and enterprise restructuring—often faced opposition from vested interests. The results of the first years of transition were uneven. All countries suffered high inflation and major recessions as prices were freed and old economic linkages broke down. But the scale of output losses and the time taken for growth to return and inflation to be brought under control varied widely. Initial conditions and external factors played a role, but policies were critical too. Countries that undertook more front-loaded and bold reforms were rewarded with faster recovery and income convergence. Others were more vulnerable to the crises that swept the region in the wake of the 1997 Asia crisis.
In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.