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Covering a full array of topics in open economy macro and public economics, Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy has been thoroughly revised and extended. The added material in this new edition includes stochastic rational-expectations extensions of the Mundell-Fleming model, the development of a dynamic-optimizing approach of the trade balance, and an entirely new part on issues of international economic convergence, which also contains a comprehensive policy overview. Other chapters have been updated or reorganized, and there is a brief guide to solving typical dynamic macro problems along with a printout of software suitable for numerical simulations. A companion diskette containing solutions in dynamic macro problems and some sample programs is available in GAUSS for IBM. The exercises and solutions manual by Krueger, Ostry, and Yuen has also been updated and extended. Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy has been used successfully in graduate and senior undergraduate courses in international economics and public finance. The objective of this new edition remains the same as before: to treat the major topics in macro and public economics using both traditional and modern approaches. The traditional approach is first explained, from the simple income-expenditure model to the more advanced stochastic Mundell-Fleming model. The modern intertemporal approach is then presented, starting with the simple two-period model and extending it to a full-fledged dynamic model. Other sections review recent developments in the world economy; government spending, budget deficits, and differences across international taxation; and economic growth in the world economy, especially the convergence of income and growth levels across countries.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
The eight chapters in this volume fall into three subject areas: government budget management and control, federal entitlement programs, and attempts to influence private sector behavior through tax code management.Policymakers are often hard-pressed to understand what economists have to say on policy issues, and scholars and students need to know what the latest research findings are and what questions remain unanswered. Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Economic Research presents the work of leading contributors to the public finance literature. The papers were originally presented at a 1996 conference sponsored by the Robert D. Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance at the University of California, Berkeley. Although the papers are broad in scope, they are not intended to be neutral, comprehensive surveys of the literature. Instead, authors were encouraged to focus on the issues they thought most important or interesting. The conference confirmed that on some questions there is a broad consensus, and on others there is strong disagreement. Because perspectives differ, after each paper two discussants offer their own views on the subject. More so than in many conference volumes, these comments are an integral part of each presentation. The eight chapters fall into three subject areas: government budget management and control, federal entitlement programs, and attempts to influence private sector behavior through tax code management.ContributorsHenry J. Aaron, B. Douglas Bernheim, David M. Cutler, Nada Eissa, Jeffrey Frankel, William G. Gale, Roger H. Gordon, Edward M. Gramlich, Bronwyn H. Hall, Kevin A. Hassett, James R. Hines, Jr., Hilary Williamson Hoynes, R. Glenn Hubbard, Robert P. Inman, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert A. Moffitt, Joseph P. Newhouse, James M. Poterba, John M. Quigley, Robert D. Reischauer, David Romer, Daniel L. Rubinfeld, John B. Shoven, Jonathan S. Skinner, Joel Slemrod, John B. Taylor
Optimal tax design attempts to resolve a well-known trade-off: namely, that high taxes are bad insofar as they discourage people from working, but good to the degree that, by redistributing wealth, they help insure people against productivity shocks. Until recently, however, economic research on this question either ignored people's uncertainty about their future productivities or imposed strong and unrealistic functional form restrictions on taxes. In response to these problems, the new dynamic public finance was developed to study the design of optimal taxes given only minimal restrictions on the set of possible tax instruments, and on the nature of shocks affecting people in the economy. In this book, Narayana Kocherlakota surveys and discusses this exciting new approach to public finance. An important book for advanced PhD courses in public finance and macroeconomics, The New Dynamic Public Finance provides a formal connection between the problem of dynamic optimal taxation and dynamic principal-agent contracting theory. This connection means that the properties of solutions to principal-agent problems can be used to determine the properties of optimal tax systems. The book shows that such optimal tax systems necessarily involve asset income taxes, which may depend in sophisticated ways on current and past labor incomes. It also addresses the implications of this new approach for qualitative properties of optimal monetary policy, optimal government debt policy, and optimal bequest taxes. In addition, the book describes computational methods for approximate calculation of optimal taxes, and discusses possible paths for future research.
An advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic equilibrium models, with discussion of the implications for monetary and fiscal policy. This textbook offers an advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic general equilibrium models based on intertemporal optimization on the part of economic agents. The book treats macroeconomics as applied and policy-oriented general equilibrium analysis, examining a number of models, each of which is suitable for investigating specific issues but may be unsuitable for others. After presenting a brief survey of the evolution of macroeconomics and the key facts about long-run economic growth and aggregate fluctuations, the book introduces the main elements of the intertemporal approach through a series of two-period competitive general equilibrium models—the simplest possible intertemporal models. This sets the stage for the remainder of the book, which presents models of economic growth, aggregate fluctuations, and monetary and fiscal policy. The text focuses on a full analysis of a limited number of key intertemporal models, which are stripped down to essentials so that students can focus on the dynamic properties of the models. Exercises encourage students to try their hands at solving versions of the dynamic models that define modern macroeconomics. Appendixes review the main mathematical techniques needed to analyze optimizing dynamic macroeconomic models. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who have some knowledge of economic theory and mathematics for economists.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Keeping the economy strong will require addressing two distinct but related problems. Steadily rising federal debt makes it harder to grow our economy, boost our living standards, respond to wars or recessions, address social needs, and maintain our role as a global leader. At the same time, we have let critical investments lag and left many people behind even as overall prosperity has grown. In Fiscal Therapy, William Gale, a leading authority on how federal tax and budget policy affects the economy, provides a trenchant discussion of the challenges posed by the imbalances between spending and revenue. America is facing a gradual decline as debt accumulates and delay raises the costs of action. But there is hope: fiscal responsibility aligns with both conservative and liberal goals and citizens of all stripes can support the notion of making life better for our children and grandchildren. Gale provides a plan to make the economy and nation stronger, one that controls entitlement spending but preserves and enhances their anti-poverty and social insurance roles, increases public investments on human and physical capital, and raises and reforms taxes to pay for government services in a fair and efficient way. What is needed, he argues, is to balance today's needs against tomorrow's obligations. We face significant fiscal challenges but, if we are wise enough to seize our opportunities, we can strengthen our economy, increase opportunity, reduce inequality, and build better lives for our children and grandchildren. We do not have to kill popular programs or starve government. Indeed, one main goal of fiscal reform is to maintain the vital functions that government provides. We need to act responsibly, pay for the government we want, and shape that government in ways that serve us best.
The role of fiscal policy in short-run macroeconomic stabilization is, by now, well known in the academic literature and in policy circles. However, this focus on the short-run, especially in a democracy, means that much less attention has been paid to the other consequences of the use of fiscal policy. By studying the intergenerational-welfare aspects of fiscal policy, this book deals with some fundamental issues of fiscal policy. Why does public debt tend to rise over time in democracies? Why is there a tendency for government spending on consumption and on social security to grow? Why do governments fail to invest in public capital adequately? Should a dollar transferred from the young be treated as a dollar transferred to the old? By studying the international aspects of fiscal policy, the book establishes international differences in fiscal policy as determinants of persistent trade imbalances and international indebtedness. It also considers some basic questions on international transfers and austerity in open economies. What criteria should be used to define a successful foreign-aid programme? Why is foreign aid likely to fail in a world of global wealth disparity? Can reliance be placed on the international coordination of austerity to improve welfare in the long run? Is austerity accompanied by international transfers superior to austerity unaccompanied by international transfers? This book based on the OLG model fills a gap on fiscal-policy issues in the recent spate of books on overlapping generations.